Laying the favourite in its first ever race

[Sir ratholer]

I don't think this system has been done before, but it's something that has got me interested. I was at Newmarket on Wednesday, I don't tend to do a lot of racing betting (most of mine is on football or tennis) but I was there on a social occasion. What struck me was there were several favourites that had never raced before. I thought, why on earth would you want to back a horse that has never raced before? How are you going to know if it's any good? Now at this point I'm sure many of you are scoffing into your breakfast and thinking that this is all rubbish. But just because a horse cost a lot of money does not mean necessarily that it's going to win first time out. A lot of horses need a run to get some experience. It also may not be running at the appropriate distance/have the required going etc... Another laughable thing I've noticed in racing media is that there will be a comment like 'trainer says horse has been running well' or similar. I wouldn't believe a word that comes out of these people's mouths. They are hardly going to say 'well he's cost a fortune but he has no chance because he's running like an idiot on the gallops', is he?! Out of interest, in the two races at Newmarket both horses which were favourites did not win. I know it was a small sample but it further interested me. One opened at evens (Midsummer Boy I think it was called) and drifted to 7/4 at the start, and ran a very mediocre race (came 5/7 if I recall correctly). The other horse looked very keen going down to the start, had an atrocious start out of the stalls when it lost 3/4 lengths at the start and narrowly lost. If it had more race experience I'm sure it would have won. Anyway, that's my rationale. Let's see how we get on. If I don't have time to edit one day, feel free to add qualifying horses yourselves. Please note I will not be considering races where all runners have not yet run.

[Sir ratholer]

Re: Laying the favourite in its first ever race Only one qualifying horse today:- Bahia Emerald 7:10 Brighton Lay @ 3.2