Sir ratholer Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 I've never made a consistent profit long term backing odds on teams away from home. When I first started punting I used to think, Chelsea are 4/6 away at some mid table team, they can't lose, pile on. Then as I learnt more, I looked at the stats and realised that almost half the matches across the world end in home wins. I still have very little idea on why Chelsea away at a team like Blackburn would be a tough call but if it's at Stamford Bridge it would be a formality, but it works out that way. So with this system I'm going to be laying every odds on away team I can get my hands on! Lay Liability will be £100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir ratholer Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams Only one match qualifies tonight:- Lay TNS @ 1.59 v Prestatyn. Malmo and Karpaty almost qualified. I'm sure there will be plenty of matches tomorrow! Feel free to add a match which qualifies that I've missed out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenno99 Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams Interesting idea. Have you tried back testing this at all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir ratholer Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams Interesting idea. Have you tried back testing this at all? Thanks, no I haven't. The only back testing I have done effectively is losing when backing these outcomes, so naturally I feel that the opposite (laying) would work well! As with the goal difference system, I would only commit money to this when I've had a positive yield after several hundred results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenno99 Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams I had a quick go at back testing this in the premiership last season using data from footballdata.com and it showed a good profit. However, I was using the BetBrain average odds column which isn't the same as the odds you could lay at on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir ratholer Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams I had a quick go at back testing this in the premiership last season using data from footballdata.com and it showed a good profit. However' date=' I was using the BetBrain average odds column which isn't the same as the odds you could lay at on Betfair.[/quote'] I guess the lay odds on betfair will be a touch higher but that's a huge positive sign, thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams I quickly back tested this with the stats I have dating back to 2003 for a variety of leagues Games 477 Total liability (based on £10 per game) £18,308.39 P/L -£1,214.80 yield -6.64% I used odds from bet explored and added 10% to simulate likely betfair lay odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenno99 Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams Here are the results from the past 6 Premiership seasons, putting flat stakes of £10 on each time. SeasonBetsProfitYield05/0654£6.601%06/0752-£10.00-2%07/0859-£10.40-2%08/0955-£84.90-15%09/1068£190.2028%10/1143£133.4031%Overall331£224.906.79% This season and last season look good, before that not so good. This year in the Premiership the bigger sides have struggled, especially away from home which is probably why the yield is good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir ratholer Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams That makes total sense. I can see this working better in closer leagues, which obviously the premier league has been the last 2 years. I will add an extra caveat - teams must have less than 2.1 points per game on average. I'm not sure if that disqualifies the tns game though, I need to check. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir ratholer Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams TNS match did not qualify. Today's matches:- Chelsea 1.78 Kidderminster 1.83 AFC Wimbledon 1.54 Raith 1.47 Albion 1.85 Stranraer 1.89 Rayo Vallecano 1.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir ratholer Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams Saturday's matches:- Chelsea 1.78 - £100 Kidderminster 1.83 + £120.48 AFC Wimbledon 1.54 - £100 Raith 1.47 - £100 Albion 1.85 - £100 Stranraer 1.89 + £112.36 Rayo Vallecano 1.98 - £100 Not the best start but hopefully we can turn this around next week... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir ratholer Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Re: Laying Odds-On Away Teams No qualifying matches Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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