uknowsit Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Hi all, well I’ve been lurking around these forums for a while now. I’ve learned a fair bit from reading several threads and replies to my threads and have also received a great deal of help along the way. I’d consider my excel skills to be quite good and I’ve developed a spreadsheet that can predict the scoreline of fixtures and also generate “true odds” of each game. I’ve managed to adapt the sheets to enable me to backtest results in real time (as they would’ve happened). I have done this for the following leagues: Belgian x 1 Czech x 1 German x 2 English x 4 French x 2 Greek x 1 Italian x 2 Japanese x 1 Dutch x 1 Norwegian x 1 Polish x 1 Portuguese x 1 Spanish x 1 Swedish x 1 Turkish x 1 Each file is about 4.5mg in size, and have been built in excel 2007. I have uploaded an example one of the French 1st division from last season (09-10) to a web hosting site http://www.woofiles.com/dl-239767-Vs6Unkbk-FR1Example.xlsm I have displayed just the main screen of results for this example. The normal sheets also contain league tables (both actual, predicted, and user predicted), as well as previous h2h scores. I’m not stuck as to what to do. I’ve complied all the data, and am trying to find profitable ways of using the data going forward – being wary of data mining and back fashioning things. The one set of data not readily available is the correct score data for previous games, so its hard to analyse just how profitable correct score betting would’ve been. I’m also contemplating setting up a website or email circular where people could obtain the sheets (possibly for a low fee to cover the hosting costs). Would just like to hear people’s views, questions or suggestions. (just to explain the sheet columns from left to right, date of game, home team, away team, home goals scored, away goals scored, full time result, full time prediction, user predict home score, user predict away score, home odds, draw odds, away odds – all odds from bet explorer, home “true” odds, draw “true” odds, away “true” odds, goals galore odds – odds of both teams scoring). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Link doesnt't work :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds It does for me?? Anyone else have problems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds It doesn't work for me either.... just get a list of 6 "warning" messages :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Am posting from my phone. Try below FR1_(Example).xlsm * http://www.woofiles.com/dl-239767-Vs6Unkbk-FR1Example.xlsm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightfire23 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Still doesn't work. When you click the link you get to the website. On the website you click download and there are 6 warnings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Ah ok. I have zipped the file. See if that helps? If not I will have to try from a pc later. http://www.woofiles.com/dl-239791-j6bZwlGt-FR1Example.zip%5DFR1_(Example).zip%5B/url%5D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightfire23 Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Cheers, this works. The spreadsheet is protected so we cannot see any calculations you make in predicting correct scores. Of course I understand you don't want to throw it all out but some explanation of the system may be necessary for others to make use/suggestions of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Great thanks. I am happy to provide explanations on here regarding any formulae (I don't really want anyone discecting my sheets - and to be honest there is some rather detailed calculations in there). I guess I am looking for suggestions for analysis which I can then share with other users. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds link still not working for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds ... me neither :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Is there an alternative hosting site anyone is aware of? Not sure what is causing the issues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds www.4shared.com Edit: I haven't spotted before button "See what people share" there; I entered "betfair", and it returned almost a athousand results! I suppose most are those cr*ppy systems that are being sold around, but might be interesting to see what can be found there: http://search.4shared.com/q/1/betfair?suggested Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Is there an alternative hosting site anyone is aware of? Not sure what is causing the issues post it on the: rapidshare scribd.com also suports excel file upload/download options Btw, link doesnt work for me neither, but try with those two. Looking forward to see your work :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Please all try. http://www.mediafire.com/file/i248r3jkz2iz0rc/FR1%20%28Example%29.zip Sorry for the errors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds That works; thanks! :ok What is UPH and UPA? And also, is first set of home/draw/away odds (columns Q, R and S) bookie's odds, and second set (columns AD, AE and AF) your calculated odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Froment you are correct with odds assumptions. All figures are really only relevant after each team has played 5 home and 5 away games. Uph gives a chance for user to predict home score. Please see post 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds Well, I didn't see explanation at the end of post 1... :eyes Seems interesting, will take a look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds So does anyone have any ideas or suggestions as to how I could analyze or test the predictions that maybe different to approach's I've already taken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted April 13, 2011 Share Posted April 13, 2011 Re: Spreadsheet for correct scores / true odds So does anyone have any ideas or suggestions as to how I could analyze or test the predictions that maybe different to approach's I've already taken Well done table but unfortunately I dont get the formulas you ve already used. :cry I can say that I always start from the odds but I didnt make any research on CS market. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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