AFL Round 3 2011

[Ashtee]

:unsure Well, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Melbourne -30.5 & Port +46.5 are mine this weekend (shall await dressing down from a mod for not giving reasons). Also I've taken Yarran more behinds than goals @ 2.57 Sportingbet. On the likelihood he plays as running defender any shots are likely to be from around the arc again. Did just that last week for 0.2 and time and space from tonight's opp shouldn't be too easy to come by.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011

:unsure (shall await dressing down from a mod for not giving reasons). .

Consider yourself in cut off jeans and a wife beater. ;) This working for a living really blows! Hopefully will have a bit more spare time on my hands soon...actually that's not true...I do have plenty of spare time but the 'net at work is super filtered. :@ :wall [To the point that I can't even log on to play with my EPL Fantasy team...clearly sports entertainment = gambling...:eyes Thankfully enough people made a noise last year so all football fantasy comps are accessable. :\ ] Anyway... Sydney @ West Coast (1.91 @ SportingBet Oz) History of these 2 is one thing, but the way Sydney have started this year is another again. The same amount of shots as their opp in both games so far! West Coast had a tight game at home in Rd. 1 v. a Kangaroos team who I suspect isn't as bad as last week 'showed'...but neither team is as good as the Swans. 4 goals either way looks pretty generous for a line price. [Just as an aside, I've tipped West Coast...think they can win...mainly because the Swans have really leaked goals so far. [[As another aside, I'll certainly be looking at an 'over' in this game]]. Bit unlike a Swans team, but 1.76 and 1.71 are how their opp are scoring per I50 entry. They've been good enough so far to control the middle enough to get away with it but as I said last week, I do really like this WC forward set up with Darling. If the Eagles can break even in the middle they win. Still a decent sized "IF", but WC can score in this one.] Essendon 2.05 [Centrebet] (Various) Reputation alone makes the Saints favs here. They drew with Richmond last week...enough said? Bombers up and running...were unlucky to lose last week (although the travel factor made the result predictable enough), Saints are still well and truly winding into the season. Bombers have a good record v. the Saints mainly due to their pace and willingness to take the game on [where-as most teams get sucked in to playing St. Kilda football]...given they are 2-0 against the Saints already this season I don't see too much changing. Seriously wrong team favoured. Before I take a look at DT betting for the week...I have noticed some attractive odds on when Collingwood will be beaten this year. [if, indeed at all...but seriously folks...] Some BIG odds late in the season!! Background first... :lol 2007, Geelong lose 1 game...Rd. 21 home to Port (who admittedly finished 2nd that year) [Was their first loss since Rd. 4] 2009, Saints lose Rd's 20 and 21 to Ess (8th) and North (13th)... 2000, Ess lose to Doggies in Rd. 21. (7th) Exceptions being Collingwood (8th) beat Geelong in rd. 9, 2008... ...and Carlton lost Rd's 8 and 9 in 2005 to crap teams. :\ SO...looking at it, you'd have to suggest Geelong in Rd. 8 were worthy favs @ 5.50... ...but beyond that, the only 'logical' loss I can see is Hawthorn (21.00)... ...so, I've just taken some of Rd's 19-24. (For a total of 1 unit) Ess (101.00) @ Port (81) St. Kilda (Dome) (81) Bris (201) @ Freo (101) Geelong (101)...@ (effectively) 16.84. I fully expect said dressing down, but I'm happy. ;)