AFL Round 3 2011

[Ashtee]

:unsure Well, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Melbourne -30.5 & Port +46.5 are mine this weekend (shall await dressing down from a mod for not giving reasons). Also I've taken Yarran more behinds than goals @ 2.57 Sportingbet. On the likelihood he plays as running defender any shots are likely to be from around the arc again. Did just that last week for 0.2 and time and space from tonight's opp shouldn't be too easy to come by.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011

:unsure (shall await dressing down from a mod for not giving reasons). .

Consider yourself in cut off jeans and a wife beater. ;) This working for a living really blows! Hopefully will have a bit more spare time on my hands soon...actually that's not true...I do have plenty of spare time but the 'net at work is super filtered. :@ :wall [To the point that I can't even log on to play with my EPL Fantasy team...clearly sports entertainment = gambling...:eyes Thankfully enough people made a noise last year so all football fantasy comps are accessable. :\ ] Anyway... Sydney @ West Coast (1.91 @ SportingBet Oz) History of these 2 is one thing, but the way Sydney have started this year is another again. The same amount of shots as their opp in both games so far! West Coast had a tight game at home in Rd. 1 v. a Kangaroos team who I suspect isn't as bad as last week 'showed'...but neither team is as good as the Swans. 4 goals either way looks pretty generous for a line price. [Just as an aside, I've tipped West Coast...think they can win...mainly because the Swans have really leaked goals so far. [[As another aside, I'll certainly be looking at an 'over' in this game]]. Bit unlike a Swans team, but 1.76 and 1.71 are how their opp are scoring per I50 entry. They've been good enough so far to control the middle enough to get away with it but as I said last week, I do really like this WC forward set up with Darling. If the Eagles can break even in the middle they win. Still a decent sized "IF", but WC can score in this one.] Essendon 2.05 [Centrebet] (Various) Reputation alone makes the Saints favs here. They drew with Richmond last week...enough said? Bombers up and running...were unlucky to lose last week (although the travel factor made the result predictable enough), Saints are still well and truly winding into the season. Bombers have a good record v. the Saints mainly due to their pace and willingness to take the game on [where-as most teams get sucked in to playing St. Kilda football]...given they are 2-0 against the Saints already this season I don't see too much changing. Seriously wrong team favoured. Before I take a look at DT betting for the week...I have noticed some attractive odds on when Collingwood will be beaten this year. [if, indeed at all...but seriously folks...] Some BIG odds late in the season!! Background first... :lol 2007, Geelong lose 1 game...Rd. 21 home to Port (who admittedly finished 2nd that year) [Was their first loss since Rd. 4] 2009, Saints lose Rd's 20 and 21 to Ess (8th) and North (13th)... 2000, Ess lose to Doggies in Rd. 21. (7th) Exceptions being Collingwood (8th) beat Geelong in rd. 9, 2008... ...and Carlton lost Rd's 8 and 9 in 2005 to crap teams. :\ SO...looking at it, you'd have to suggest Geelong in Rd. 8 were worthy favs @ 5.50... ...but beyond that, the only 'logical' loss I can see is Hawthorn (21.00)... ...so, I've just taken some of Rd's 19-24. (For a total of 1 unit) Ess (101.00) @ Port (81) St. Kilda (Dome) (81) Bris (201) @ Freo (101) Geelong (101)...@ (effectively) 16.84. I fully expect said dressing down, but I'm happy. ;)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011 Just picture me typing this wearing the thongs. Yeah, it does feel like a good 'ole days result WCE v Syd. Also, I'm not so sure it is such a bounce back spot for Saints either. They seem to be talking up 'the hunter' thing but I'd fancy them better if all that was kept in house. they may strugle again. :unsure Yes, jobs ... and girlfriends/wives are not recommended.

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011 Anyone thinking over 190.5 tonight?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011 Yeah...looked, but not sure, so going to leave it. Just too hard to judge where Carlton are at after 2 training runs...Pies held them to some low scores in recent times. :\

[Chris25]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011 Hmmmm, true. Their early round games seem to be higher scoring though. Any bets take your fancy on tonights game?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011 No mate. I just can't see anything I can be sure of. :\ [lol. Sure of... :eyes :D ] Would lean to the 'over' if pushed...would probably lean to the Pies on the spread if pushed too, but happy to leave it alone tonight. Will be looking at a Dogs/GC total for sure tomorrow. :ok Hill over Duffield [DT] (2.00 @ SportsAlive) The Duffman was gold to go against on the road last year (usually with Mr. Consistant Mundy to be fair)...but Hill has outscored him both games so far this year. 101-69 last year @ Adelaide... ...Tired late last year (and may well do again this year), but at this point in time, fresh in the season I think he's got Duffield covered here at a good price. [Again, if pushed...Jackson over Sewell/Burgoine (2.70), and possibly Hocking over McVeigh/Armatige (2.70) look decent shouts @ SportingBet...but I'll see where a few beers tonight take me. :lol ] Good Luck guys. :cheers (Oh, and as much as I do think the Crows win, Freo out to 2.60 is starting to look a bit silly. :\ )

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011 Doggies v. Suns under 189.5 (1.88 @ SportsBet) Would have taken this line 10 points lower. Just don't see how the Suns score 50. Dixon was the only one who looked like doing any damage at all up forward last week...v. Carlton with no Jamison...now facing Lake and the best performing backline in the AFL. No Fraser means Smith won't be used forward, so unless Goringe is a super star (which he may well be, but given he missed last week you'd suspect not!) they will again struggle for goals. Dogs only had 28 shots last week in their big win, and Brisbane on the road are about as bad defensively as things get. Either way, expect GC to play at least some tempo football today when the wheels start to fall off.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011 Chapman over Bartel [DT] (1.88 @ Luxbet) [What's with these shitty odds all of a sudden people??!! :@] Chapman has a remarkable record at home, av'd over 121 points in 7 games last year...and not surprisingly beat Bartel in 6 of those games. (He had a 'quiet' 91 points in Rd. 22 in a game I suspect (Ash?) he was rested a fair chunk of the game). Bartel's max in those 7 games at home last year was 109. His 114 in Rd. 1 was a bit over blown by losing Selwood early (and no Chapman at all)...Chapman beat him 101-92 last week, and will be better for the run. Even when Bartel was more of a roaming ball winner (plays more of a role now it seems) Chapman has beaten him v. Port comfortably the last 4 meetings. (Start of '08) Was hoping for a higher Melb/Bris total but looks like they got it right. I expect Brisbane to top out in the low 70's...Dees probably low 100's...hopefully a little bit higher for the spread Ash. :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011

Chapman over Bartel [DT] (1.88 @ Luxbet) [What's with these shitty odds all of a sudden people??!! :@] Chapman has a remarkable record at home, av'd over 121 points in 7 games last year...and not surprisingly beat Bartel in 6 of those games. (He had a 'quiet' 91 points in Rd. 22 in a game I suspect (Ash?) he was rested a fair chunk of the game).

They did rest players and were only playing West Coast, so possibly there was some cruising from a couple of the experienced campaigners. Duffield hasn't looked in quite as good touch (although did well yesterday) and Hill is flying, so that was a good one. Talk about a comfy ride for you on WCE-Syd, mate! :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 3 2011 :ok Turns out the flying Bombers were the easiest $ of the year so far. REally should have looked to take them - some kind of spread...but as confident as I was I didn't think it would be over midway thru the 2nd! Bartel ruined a pretty good week, but probably a good thing...lines look a lot tougher to break down this week. :\