ROZAIRO Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 My previous thread got banned:spank... may be I was breaking forum rules.Sorry for that. So....again, My system is based on Arbitrage betting on high scoring games.My strategy is given below..., 1.Total goals Even Co-eff. is nearly 1.90 2.Exact goals 3 Co-eff. is nearly 4.33 3.Over 4.5 Goals Co-eff. is nearly 8 or 9 Lets assume my bet on Team A vs Team B is 100$, 1.Total goals Even 60.61@ 1.90 2.Exact goals 3 [email protected] 3.Over 4.5 Goals 12.80@9 if u win any of given selections u'll get 115.16$ back, in case if u win 2 selections(such as over4.5 +Even=6/8 goals) return is 230.32$:loon.......great...isnt it??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! Todays selections, 1.Almeria v Athletic Bilbao(Spain Primera Liga) 2.QPR v Sheff Utd (Npower Championship) 3.Aarau v Stade Nyonnais(Switzerland Challenge League) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! 1.Almeria v Athletic Bilbao(Spain Primera Liga):ok 2.QPR v Sheff Utd (Npower Championship):hope 3.Aarau v Stade Nyonnais(Switzerland Challenge League):ok waiting for 2nd selection to win.....so far not bad... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archerz Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! How do you work out your stake values? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! 1.Almeria v Athletic Bilbao(Spain Primera Liga) 2.QPR v Sheff Utd (Npower Championship) 3.Aarau v Stade Nyonnais(Switzerland Challenge League).....ALL WON!!! :nana Starting betting bank 800$ Todays wins 100$ x 0.45=45$ New betting Bank 845$ :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! @archerz, U can find many betting calculators online,or there some even u can download & install.I don't know if I can post external links in this site.....but don't wanna risk.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! Selections for 05/04/11, 1.Victoria Branesti v Sportul Studentesc (Romania Liga I) 2.Leyton Orient v Plymouth(Npower League 1) 3.Wacker Burghausen v Babelsberg 03 (Germany 3.Liga)......:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terak69 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! I may be missing something but what happens if no goals or 1 goal is scored ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! nil nil is counted as even goals. basically he is laying one goal in total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackay007 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! I don't understand how you won Bet 3? I thought you were betting on over 4.5 goals? The game finished 0-4 so that wouldn't win? Or were you betting on something else in the Aarau v Nyonnais game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! I don't understand how you won Bet 3? I thought you were betting on over 4.5 goals? The game finished 0-4 so that wouldn't win? Or were you betting on something else in the Aarau v Nyonnais game? Even goals, that's winner in swiss game. As Muppet said, he loses only if result is 0-1 or 1-0, so I think it would be much easier doing exactly that, laying those two scores at Betfair; and probably more profitable - given that both 1-0 and 0-1 odds drop after kick-off, waiting 10 to 15 minutes into the game before placing bets would almost double his profits. As for data provided, I am quite suspicious about odds between 8.00 and 9.00 for Over 4.5 goals; I don't think it's often available, especially not in leagues that are supposed to be high-scoring, like Norway and Swiss - I would be happy getting 5.00 there. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! @mackay007, He he...my friend according to maths that I've learned 4 is an even number...:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! Even goals, that's winner in swiss game. As Muppet said, he loses only if result is 0-1 or 1-0, so I think it would be much easier doing exactly that, laying those two scores at Betfair; and probably more profitable - given that both 1-0 and 0-1 odds drop after kick-off, waiting 10 to 15 minutes into the game before placing bets would almost double his profits. As for data provided, I am quite suspicious about odds between 8.00 and 9.00 for Over 4.5 goals; I don't think it's often available, especially not in leagues that are supposed to be high-scoring, like Norway and Swiss - I would be happy getting 5.00 there. :unsure My friend,Thats why I have few selections among 100's of games available.hope this screen shot will make u convinced ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! Selections for 05/04/11, 1.Victoria Branesti v Sportul Studentesc (Romania Liga I) 2.Leyton Orient v Plymouth(Npower League 1) 3.Wacker Burghausen v Babelsberg 03 (Germany 3.Liga)......:hope :drums CORRECTION, 3RD SELECTION CHANGED!!!!!! 1.Victoria Branesti v Sportul Studentesc (Romania Liga I) 13% 2.Leyton Orient v Plymouth(Npower League 1) 7% 3.Newport County v Darlington (Blue Square Premier) 11% ........:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! My friend' date='Thats why I have few selections among 100's of games available.hope this screen shot will make u convinced![/quote'] Thanks for your efforts, and sorry for bothering about it, I didn't expect screenshot! :ok However, I was not in doubt about that romanian match, it's a low scoring league, and those odds are expected; I mentioned Swiss and Norway as doubtful. I didn't want to check your odds, I just commented it; what I surely know is that Under 4.5 for norwegian matches at betfair is rarely below 1.22, which in turn means around 5.50 for Over 4.5, and that becomes 5.00 or less at betfair. For Romania and similar leagues, Under 4.5 is usually 1.10 to 1.12, i.e., around 9 to 11 for Over 4.5, so I even consider your odds of 8.00 lower than one could get at betfair! Edit: Couldn't resist, but to check: best back odds at betfair for romanian match are 8.80, which means effectively 8.41, after maximum 5% commission; but liquidity is still poor there, and best lay odds are 10.00, so I believe you could easily get your back bet at least at 9.20! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! How do you work out your stake values? My way (Probably other ways).... Odds 1 / 1.90 = 53% 1 / 4.33 = 23% 1 / 9.00 = 11% Total = 87% (1 / 87%) x 53% = 61% x £100 = £60.61 (1 / 87%) x 23% = 27% x £100 = £26.60 (1 / 87%) x 11% = 13% x £100 = £12.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! According to oddsportal, highest odd for the Swiss match over 4.5 was @4.6, victor chandler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! in case if u win 2 selections(such as over4.5 +Even=6/8 goals) return is 230.32$:loon.......great...isnt it??? 6,8,10...etc...goals on a match Check the leagues U re playing, how often do you have matches with such a scores? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! @betting-place, My friend, plz don't forget end of the day everything is a gamble....Nothing is impossible.On a bad day I could get 1-0 three in a row or get 4-2 or 3-3 easily.Never say never...Lets not be pessimists...:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! @froment, I agree with u...its not easy to find good odds for over 4.5.But in Bet-fair most of the time this option is not available for my selections,also It's not advisable to back 4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! :drums CORRECTION, 3RD SELECTION CHANGED!!!!!! 1.Victoria Branesti v Sportul Studentesc (Romania Liga I) 13% 2.Leyton Orient v Plymouth(Npower League 1) 7% 3.Newport County v Darlington (Blue Square Premier) 11% ........:hope 1.Victoria Branesti v Sportul Studentesc (Romania Liga I) 13%:ok 2.Leyton Orient v Plymouth(Npower League 1) 7%:ok 3.Newport County v Darlington (Blue Square Premier) 11%:ok...........:nana Todays winnings =100 X 0.31 --- 31$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! I must be dense...I understand the three bets per game, but what is your criteria for choosing the games? Only those where the odds meet 1.90 for even goals, etc.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! @betting-place, My friend, plz don't forget end of the day everything is a gamble....Nothing is impossible.On a bad day I could get 1-0 three in a row or get 4-2 or 3-3 easily.Never say never...Lets not be pessimists...:cheers Ure not getting... Lets take your tonights match: Leyton-Plymouth Thats EL1 match, random research for the last is showing next: 1-0 and 0-1 matches: 94 (out of 552) 17.03% 4-2,2-4,5-1,1-5,3-3,4-4,etc: 16 (out of 552) 2.90% -------------------- Regarding this results U need odds which will bring U at least 17.04% of profit for this match, ok? U have odds for just 7%. There is no value. ;) Lets not be pessimists Im just trying to help U, no hard feelings but U need to work on this strategy much more. Otherwise, U ll lose your money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! I must be dense...I understand the three bets per game' date=' but what is your criteria for choosing the games? Only those where the odds meet 1.90 for even goals, etc.?[/quote'] Odds for even total can be found for 1.90...for almost every match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! Im just trying to help U' date=' no hard feelings but U need to work on this strategy much more. Otherwise, U ll lose your money.[/quote'] Got it mate...Thanks for the explanation,will work hard to make the system profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winningbin Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! you still have a chance to lose, so it cannot be called arbitrage :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! you still have a chance to lose' date=' so it cannot be called arbitrage :tongue2[/quote'] Ok,may be I explained incorrectly...I use arbitrage calculator to define my stakes....,and I never called it as a sure bet.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! Selections for 06/04/11 1.Chelsea v Man Utd (Guys here I've put *Even-1.90,*Exact 3G-4.33,Exact 5G-15) 21% 2.Motherwell v Dundee Utd -15% 3.Dinamo Bucuresti v FC Brasov(*Even-1.90,*Exact 3G-4,Exact 5G-12)16%......:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROZAIRO Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! :welcome Hey Guys ....I need ur ideas to improve the system, what if I bet on...:unsure 1) Goal Total Even co-eff. nearly 1.90 2) Exact 3 Goals co-eff. nearly 4.33 3) Exact 5 Goals co-eff. nearly 12 or 13 This way I'll lose my bet in case of 1-0 or 7,9 goals(which is rare). Profit will be around 20%-22% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: NOOOOOOOOO 1 !!!! :welcome Hey Guys ....I need ur ideas to improve the system, what if I bet on...:unsure 1) Goal Total Even co-eff. nearly 1.90 2) Exact 3 Goals co-eff. nearly 4.33 3) Exact 5 Goals co-eff. nearly 12 or 13 This way I'll lose my bet in case of 1-0 or 7,9 goals(which is rare). Profit will be around 20%-22% Like I said earlier tonight, you need to work it on... Every strategy needs time and effort. My call would be: Odd + Under 2 on pinn :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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