GRAND NATIONAL SUPPORTING RACES

[ganjaman]

AINTREE BOWL CHASE TRENDS 2011 The Totesport Bowl Steeplechase is one of three grade 1 races featuring on the opening day of the 2011 Aintree Festival, which kicks off on Thursday 7th April. The 3M 1F chase was upgraded to grade 1 status last year and so will attract a good few of this year’s Gold Cup protagonists. In the last 3 years, Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander have all been beaten in this after running well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It can often pay to oppose horses that had a hard race at Cheltenham. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 0-1-2 7yo: 2-3-10 8yo: 3-4-18 9yo: 0-3-12 10yo: 3-1-12 11yo+: 2-1-11 12yo+: 0-1-5 Horses aged 6 to 8: 5-8-30 Horses aged 9+: 5-8-40 4 of the last 5 winners have been aged 6 to 8 Breeding French Bred: 4-9-22 Irish Bred: 4-3-31 British Bred: 2-2-14 Other: 0-0-3 No very strong trend on breeding, though French breds have done well, gaining 4 of 10 wins from 31.4% of the total runners, and 13 of 22 making the places. Recent/Past Form 5 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (all 5 exceptions were unplaced in the Cheltenham Gold Cup) 10 of 10 winners had won at least 4 chases 9 of 10 winners had run in 10 or more chases in their career 9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception having first try at 3M+) 10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase 6 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 7 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase that season Only 1 of the past 10 winners had previously won at Aintree, so course form is not overly important. Other races Returning Bowl winner (What A Friend): 52P34 (0-1-5) King George winner (Long Run): 112 (2-1-3) Argento Chase winner (Neptune Collonges): 5161 (2-0-4) John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Tranquil Sea): 1 (1-0-1) Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Diamond Harry): 41 (1-0-2) Ryanair Chase winner (Alberta Run): 41 (1-0-2) AON Chase winner (Noland): 41 (1-0-2) Betfair Chase winner (Imperial Commander): 25 (0-1-2) Gold Cup winner (Long Run): F (0-0-1) 6 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup last time, finishing 0P5U26 5 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 11222 3 of 10 winners ran in the Argento Chase, finishing 112 3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan, finishing 132 2 of 10 winners ran in the AON Chase, finishing 21 2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in the Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 13 2 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus, finishing 71 Trainers David Pipe (2-0-4) has won 2 of the last 3 runnings of this, continuing on his father’s fine record in the race (4 of last 7 winners came from Pipe stable). Jonjo O’Neill (1-2-5) and Paul Nicholls (1-2-11) have each saddled the winner and a couple of placed finishers in the past 10 years. Willie Mullins (1-0-1) and Howard Johnson (1-0-2) have also trained the winner once since 2001. Price 8 of 10 winners were sent off 9/1 or shorter No strong trend on prices, though the last 3 favourites have gone off shorter than 6/4 and been beaten. Favourites (2-4-10) have won just 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 3.75. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · French bred · Had at least 10 career chase starts (won at least 4) · Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 last time or unplaced in Gold Cup · Won over 3M+ · Won a graded chase (ideally a grade 1) · Ran at Cheltenham Festival last time · Finished 1st or 2nd in King George this season · Finished in 1st 3 in Argento, John Durkan and/or Hennessy Gold Cup · Trained by David Pipe or Jonjo O'Neill

[ganjaman]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL SUPPORTING RACES LIVERPOOL HURDLE TRENDS 2011 The BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle is the opening race of Aintree’s 3-day Grand National meeting. It was first run in 2004 and was promoted to grade 1 status in 2010. Run over 3 miles and half a furlong, it will attract many of the best stayers but it’s hard to see any beating Big Buck’s, who is looking for a hat-trick of wins in this race. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 7 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 0-1-6 6yo: 3-3-12 7yo: 4-5-18 8yo: 0-1-13 9yo+: 0-2-14 7 of 7 winners have been aged 6 or 7 Horses aged 8 or older have gained no wins and just 3 places from 27 runners. Recent/Past Form 6 of 7 winners won or placed last time out 7 of 7 winners ran in past 40 days 7 of 7 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season 7 of 7 winners had won over 2M6F+ 7 of 7 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle Course Form Previous season's winner (Big Bucks): 211 (2-1-3) Previous season Top Novice Hurdle winner (General Miller): 1 (1-0-1) 3 of 7 winners ran in previous Liverpool hurdle, finishing 1F1 7 of 7 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at a previous Aintree Festival From a combined 11 course runs, the 7 winners made the places in all but 1 Aintree start, that exception being Blazing Bailey's fall in this race in 2007 before winning it the next year. Other Races World Hurdle winner (Big Bucks): 123311 (3-3-6) Long Walk winner (Big Bucks): 2141 (2-1-4) Long Distance winner (Big Bucks): 3351 (1-1-4) Cleeve Hurdle winner (Grand Crus): 4PF314 (1-1-6) 6 of 7 winners ran in World Hurdle last time, finishing 132411 4 of 7 winners ran in the Cleeve hurdle, finishing 5221 2 of 7 winners ran in the Relkeel hurdle, finishing 51 2 of 7 winners ran in the Long Distance hurdle, finishing 41 2 of 7 winners ran in the Long Walk hurdle, finishing 11 2 of 7 winners ran in Cheltenham & 3 Counties Club Hurdle, finishing 21 Trainers Paul Nicholls (2-0-3) has saddled Big Buck’s to win the last 2 renewals. Henry Daly (2-1-4) trained Mighty Man to win it in 2006 & 2007 and finish 2nd in 2009. He also had Possol finish 3rd last year at 33/1. Nicky Richards (1-2-4), Alan King (1-1-6) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-6) have trained the winner and a placed finisher in this race. Howard Johnson (0-3-6) and Peter Bowen (0-2-2) have both had multiple placed finishers. Price 7 of 7 winners were sent off 11/2 or shorter All 7 winners came from the first 3 in the betting, however there have been some long-priced placed finishers, 2 x 14/1, 2 x 16/1, 20/1 & 80/1. Favourite (3-3-7) have won 3 of the 7 runnings but show a level stakes loss of 2.15. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 6 or 7 · Run 2 to 5 times this season · Won a grade 1 or 2 over 2M 6F+ · Finished in first 3 in World Hurdle last time · Previous finished 1st or 2nd at an Aintree Festival · Trained by P Nicholls, H Daly, N Richards or P Bowen · Priced 11/2 or shorter