Ratings system and creation of book

[Faxy Fowler]

I have devised my own race rating system which follows a host of data taken from the Racing Post site. I am posting some of my ratings for today for fun (and I don't really for now want to give my method away) but there is a bigger exercise at stake. I've not really tested them so far but they tend to produce what look fairly feasible results. I would point out that a horse rating at 120 in a race isn't automatically better than one rating at 100 in another. This is because each race has ratings relevant to the class in which it races. Once I have produced enough of these, I hope to be able to use some clever mathematics to enable a book to be formed on each race. I will consider each race result and what percentage of the time each higher rated horse wins (if there are two equally rated horses in a race then obviously it is 50-50 between the two) but I expect if the ratings are as good as I hope they'll be, the bigger the difference, the bigger the advantage to the higher rated horse. So in effect, a 6 horse race would have 30 head to head races for which results will be derived to assist with forming a book. Over time, the data will increase rapidly and some trends should emerge. TODAY's RATINGS JUST FOR FUN. One thing I will point out is that the ratings take no account whatsoever of forecast SP. I have however highlighted the forecast favourite in each race and you can see in most cases the highest rated horse is pretty near the top which is nice. I have included a flat race at the end; the ratings work on any race with up to 40 horses. CHEPSTOW 1410 1 American Ladie 136 (RP fav) 2 Sara´s Smile 115 3 Verde Goodwood 108 4 Bow To No One 102 5 Fraam Lea 87 6 Rolline 87 CHEPSTOW 1440 1 Lightening Fire 143 2 Won More Night 138 3 Form And Beauty 134 (RP fav) 4 Spinning Waters 115 5 Jessica 90 CHEPSTOW 1515 1 Victory Gunner 134 2 Strongbows Legend 130 (RP fav) 3 Silver Story 126 4 Freeze Up 123 5 Priors Glen 120 6 Oscar Prairie 107 7 Troy Tempest 90 CHEPSTOW 1550 1 Amble Forge 138 2 Roudoudou Ville 138 (RP fav) 3 Star Galaxy 130 4 Bushwacker 128 5 Ready Or Not 124 CHEPSTOW 1620 1 Gilwen Glory 135 2 Bishophill Jack 126 3 Always Waining 123 4 Prince Of Denial 123 (RP fav) 5 Lyster 118 6 Sunday Sharpner 108 7 King Gabriel 93 8 Drumbeater 88 CHEPSTOW 1655 1 Oca De Thaix 139 (RP fav) 2 Oopsmylord 126 3 Back Is Back 126 4 Back To Bid 125 5 Classic Clover 124 6 Worship The Stars 121 7 Ultimate Limit 120 8 Celestial Dragon 109 9 Orphelin Collonges 107 10 Black Beauty 99 CHEPSTOW 1730 1 Black Thunder 135 2 Mr Hooper 135 3 Hawk Run 135 4 Ardkilly Gunner 135 (RP fav) 5 Kalantari 127 6 Barrison 122 7 Gospel Preacher 121 8 Five Rivers 119 9 Mike Towey 114 10 Gilzean 96 11 Gypsy Moth 92 12 Blue Lovell 90 13 Ashbourne Folly 90 KEMPTON 1740 (AW) 1 Malice Or Mischief 151 (RP fav) 2 Sofias Number One 149 3 Better Self 147 4 Paco Belle 144 5 Captain Sharpe 128 6 Ad Vitam 127 7 Farmer´s Wife 124 I am happy to answer any queries (apart at this stage from how the ratings are achieved!) One question - in putting this together I am inclined to segregate results from flat and NH, handicaps and non-handicaps, and treat bumpers, maidens and hunter chases as seperate for deriving results. Any thoughts on that would be welcomed. :ok

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Ratings system and creation of book Not a bad start, seems backing all the top rated horses (including joint top) would have pulled in a total of 12.88 pts based on 1pt level stakes. Gilwen Glory was a 7/1 shot and Mr Hooper in the last an 8/1 horse. Quite encouraged by that.