Monterosso goes to Cheltenham

[Monterosso]

...in spirit. But I'll be having plenty of bets and watching it from the comfort of my home. I'm an awful NH punter, so pay no attention to my ramblings and consider place laying all my selections. (jinxing myself in a positive way, please work!) I've already had 2 ante-post bets (posted in my horse thread - Dunguib & Pandorama - Both at 20/1) a couple of months ago. I'll pop them up in here soon. No bank, just P/L. Probably loss. :cry

[Monterosso]

Re: Monterosso goes to Cheltenham (Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Tuesday) 1:30 Cheltenham - Dunraven Storm - 2pts e/w @ 28/1 (Bet365 - NRNB) I really think this Phillip Hobbs trained 6 year old has a very good chance of getting involved here and is crazily over-priced at 28/1 considering his overall form. Whilst he hasn't been seen for a while and left on a sour note, he has enough form in the book to put it up to the market principles here, bar the hot-favourite Cue Card, who disposed of my selection fairly readily in a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham back in November. However, despite being 8 lengths behind many peoples festival banker, Dunraven Storm paid for some sloppy jumping at the 2nd last flight that day and could of forced Colin Tizzard's runner to have a much more difficult run-in if he didn't lose valuable momentum when hammering the hurdle. Phillip Hobbs' charge did stay on very well though and seemed to get up the hill nicely, despite already being a beaten horse, so some encouragement can be taken out of that. He finished 10 lengths clear of a horse who was rated 2lbs superior, in the shape of Ballyadam Brook, who was rated 140 and came into the race in brilliant form before running to his mark yet again, but found those two much too good. On the face of things, that form alone makes my selections price look significantly too big here, and I feel he's no more than a 14/1 shot, with the only worry being his wellbeing, as he hasn't run since the 20th of November, mainly down to his preference for decent ground but also because of his flop last time out when sent off as a 1/2 favourite in a Listed contest. Dunraven Storm paid for having 3 races in as many weeks when tackling a 4 runner field at Haydock. He raced keenly throughout on the back of a slowly run race, took over 3 out, but weakened quickly and finished a very disappointing last place. After the race, Phillip Hobbs said "He lost his race at the start," before going on to say that "he boiled over beforehand and then pulled too hard in the race. He ran miles below his true form and we'll give him a break now." He definitely didn't give his true running, and I think he can be forgiven that run. The sharp nature of the Haydock track probably wasn't ideal either, and with his preference being for a galloping track, he should be right at home now that he's back running at Cheltenham, the place where he produced his career best performance. The ground is likely to be similar to the day he faced Cue Card, and it should prove no obstacle at all. His jumping is generally quite fluent, and whilst he's prone to the odd mistake, I think the likely fast pace will see him in a much better light, as he has traveled very well in the majority of his races, but is likely to be even better when he doesn't have to cut out his own running, as he was forced to do a few times. Another good piece of form was his 4 length win over the recently impressive Recession Proof, who couldn't live with the relentless galloping of Phillip Hobbs' charge when they faced off back in October. Despite making a bad mistake at the second last Ascot hurdle, Dunraven Storm repelled the recent Totesport Trophy winner to win going away, showing a very game attitude in the process. However, that was only their second starts, and the runner up has obviously progressed significantly (as his 8/1 price-tag here suggests) but I think my selection can hold that form again, with everything likely to be set up to see him in a better light here. John Quinn's then 4 year old probably wasn't fully suited by the steady pace, but the way he was forced to come off the bridle a fair way from home was testament to the abilities of Dunraven Storm, who is very underrated in the market here. Whilst Dunraven Storm doesn't fit into too many of the recent trends for this race, he has produced a couple of efforts that would see him being towards the head of the market and not near the bottom, where he currently resides. The likes of Sprinter Sacre, who has proved nothing yet and hasn't got the same level of form as my selection, is deemed to be a best priced 10/1 shot and 7/1 in places. He has run recently though and comes from a powerful stable so there's likely to be more to come, but I get the feeling that Phillip Hobbs' refusal to run his charge on softer going has led to him being seriously overlooked here, which isn't a bad thing as he's a very attractive price at the moment. He has won first time up and after a long break before, although in much weaker contests, but I'm not overly worried by the break as he's reported to be schooling well and should come here flying fit, although he was said to have banged a joint a couple of weeks ago which took him back a bit, but hopefully not too much. There has been a bit of money for him in the past fortnight and it looks likely that he'll be lining out here, but if he doesn't, the bet is "non-runner no bet" with most firms. The yard took this race with Menorah last year and he was similarly lightly raced, also running off the same official rating that day as his stablemate will run off on Tuesday, which matters not but it shows how highly rated Dunraven Storm is by the handicapper, yet he's not priced accordingly. He's open to a lot more improvement, unexposed, a good jumper, a strong traveler, suited to conditions and likely to make his presence felt if running to his abilities here. Cue Card is rated as the best animal here, but there was lots not to like in his latest outing (in December, has a break to overcome too), where he had an awkward head carriage and found next to nothing for pressure, despite traveling and jumping like the best horse before they turned for home. He's obviously a highly talented horse and the most likely winner, but there's enough reason to oppose him at the price (2/1 currently) and he could flatter to deceive once more if they manage to get him off the bridle. Marsh Warbler is another I rate really highly and he's overpriced here at 33/1, as it's possible he could line up against the older animals for the first time, with fears that he won't get suitable ground on Friday for the Triumph Hurdle, in which he'd hold quite decent claims. His Grade 1 victory is still rated 7lbs inferior to the efforts of Dunraven Storm when he chased home the favourite for this race back in November and even if Brian Ellison's charge turned up here, he'd have a hell of a battle on his hands on ground that may possibly force him to perform below his best. He is an interesting one if he turns up for this though, and is pretty much sure to be shorter than 33/1 if doing so, but I'd say his big day has come and gone. Spirit Son is another one blessed with talent and comes here on the back of a visually impressive 21 length win in a Listed contest at Exeter. He's from the Nicky Henderson yard and that obviously has an effect on his price, which is generally 6/1. However, his runs have come on truly soft ground and heavy ground, so it's debatable if he can run to his level of form on ground that will be quicker than that. So despite being a horse with plenty of ability and potentially a lot more to give, I'd rather avoid at the current prices, even though it's quite possible that the ground will prove no obstacle to him and connections seem to think he'll be equally effective on better ground, if not even better than what he has shown. The price is still too short regardless of what they say and the animal who finished 21 lengths behind him in that Listed contest is likely to make a much better chaser next season, so it was probably no more than academic once they faced off, as the Henderson runners 4/9 price tag suggested. There are many more dangers, too many to list but I think that Dunraven Storm has both the potential to improve and form in the book to suggest that he shouldn't be 28/1 here. His wellbeing has to be taken on trust but he done little wrong in 2010 (bar his last start, where he has excuses) and looks to have enough ability to get competitive in this contest. Whilst over-turning the Cue Card form will more than likely prove very difficult, he may have a more than decent chance of grabbing either 2nd or 3rd place. He'll have the more than capable Richard Johnson on his back and he landed this race last year, plus has experience of riding this fellow to victory on 4 occasions. If he can get his mount settled in behind the likely decent pace, I think he'll have an excellent chance of getting involved at the business end of proceedings, assuming he has a clear, mistake-free round. Medium sized each-way stakes for me, and I think he provides a lively each-way alternative to the favourite, who I couldn't back at current prices. Fingers crossed that Phillip Hobbs will overturn the hot-favourite in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle for the second time in as many years.