MR1982 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I've been paper testing a system using a couple of sports, both of which look to be profitable so far...one of them is tennis, which i want to continue testing but the other is based on Ice Hockey leagues throughout the world. This particular one looks interesting to me - but it begs the question, when do you bite the bullet and start using real money? My Ice Hockey system is a flat laying system and i've been paper trialling it for 17 days. Using £3 lays, the system is currently £106 in profit before todays which also looks like it's going to be a good day. Having paper tested over 200 bets....and not really being able to back test it using stats i can find - how long do you reckon i should wait before throwing a few pennies at it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amberarmy71 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: When to stop paper testing and bite the bullet..... not sure there really is a good time to bite the bullet sooner or later you need to decide when you think your system has proved itself to you and try testing the water with real cash what i would recommend is when you do decide to try for real money start off at a minimum affordable loss and see how you get on if your minimum bet does lose you can then decide to pack it in or do further research and if it wins you can decide if you maintain a cautious approach or dive straight in with a bigger bet hoping for bigger returns:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR1982 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: When to stop paper testing and bite the bullet..... what i would recommend is when you do decide to try for real money start off at a minimum affordable loss and see how you get on Thats why i've been working on £3 stakes - because thats what i want to use to start with. Obviously there has been losing days so I am aware that i may well lose cash....for example i had a 3 day period which put me £45 down but i've also had a 4 day period when i made £107 - it's swings and roundabouts but the wins seem to cover the losses. 17 days, 10 winning days, 7 losing days but still a tidy profit. All i was asking really was how many bets/weeks/days would you class as a decent "test run" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: When to stop paper testing and bite the bullet..... All i was asking really was how many bets/weeks/days would you class as a decent "test run" Well, it depends. If U base your selection on the research of the market throw the seasons, then Im afraid the answer is the season ;) Otherwise, the good time is any moment when U re in the minus. Thats my opinion, GL anyway :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clay747 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: When to stop paper testing and bite the bullet..... One way is to test your betting record to see if the profits are due to luck or not. You can use a chi-square goodness of fit significance test. A quick search found this old thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f29/question-joe-robustness-7225/#post98662 or this one http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f23/chi-square-test-76084/#post1235658 hope that helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR1982 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: When to stop paper testing and bite the bullet..... One way is to test your betting record to see if the profits are due to luck or not. You can use a chi-square goodness of fit significance test. A quick search found this old thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f29/question-joe-robustness-7225/#post98662 or this one http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f23/chi-square-test-76084/#post1235658 hope that helps. Wow, thats some reading I have to do there....will have a breeze through it and see what i get from it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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