Otter4 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 I have been paper trialling this for a while now and will now have a go at posting on here. I have been using this in all forms of cricket from T20 to test matches and in both domestic and international cricket. I have some filters that I will mostly keep to myself, but it does rely on batting order, strength of team, opposition, value, pitch conditions, wicket history amongst other things. I also have been using a loss recovery system although not aggressive and not to be confused with martingale. Basically because of the odds involved I have just been raising my stake marginally after a round of losses to attempt to recoup at least part of a loss. This has been bringing in some nice rewards with my bank being increased nicely. As I have been betting on both top bats and both top bowlers at average odds of 4/1 in a match, it has basically translated into -0 winners = loss of 4 points 1 winner = +1 point 2 winners =+6 points 3 winners = +11 and 4 winners = +16 points as an example - my bets for today's match are ( don't worry these will not be included in my records) darren bravo - 1 point @ 9/2 kallis - 1 point @ 10/3 bowlers- tstobe - 1 point @ 4/1 benn - 1 point @ 9/2 bravo is a winner tstobe is voided as he didn't play the other 2 are still in play but I have profit already for today of 2.5 points minimum. I will post reasoning for each selection and also post in the other sports forum. Wish me luck on my first cricket system :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Start Bank = 100 points Just for interests sake I will split the banks into 2. 50 points = Top batsman bank 50 points = Top bowlers bank From my past records the bowlers have a higher strike rate, although batsmen are generally better odds. Here goes with selections for tomorrows matches. Australia v New Zealand Top Australia Bat Clarke 1 point @ 5/1 Will Hill Clarke in the sub continent is a totally different prospect to when he is on a bouncy, pacy wicket. He looks comfortable and has time playing predominantly off the back foot. He is competent against spin and will score steadily in the middle overs. His form is decent and he top scored in the last match which is a bonus for confidence. Ponting still looksrusty and short of form, whilst Haddinseems to give his wicket away to often, so I'm happy to take Clarke at the 5/1 price and batting at number 4. Top NZ Bat R.Taylor 1pt @ 4/1 Will Hill Again Tayor will bat at 4 and is the class man in this line up. He can play second fiddle to the man in such as Guptil or McCullum as he demonstrated in the Pakistan series, yet he can also chase the game and explode scoring very quick runs. You have to say that this NZ batting line up are inconsistent at best, but I'd go for brittle. Taylor a 4/1 is good enough for me, especially when you consider Australia's opening bowlers. Top Australia Bowler Krezja 1pt @ 5/1 Bet 365 I was impressed with Krezja in the Kenya match and he certainly looks to take wickets with the rip he puts on the ball. His flight is impressive and I'm certain he will continue to take wickets as long as a) he is selected and b) he bowls his full quota of overs. But at 5/1 considering what the wicket was like in the England match and how Swann bowled; it's got to be Krezja - the pace trio are all too short for me and the wicket didn't offer assistance to Jimmy, Brooad and Bresnan against lesser quality batsmen. Top NZ Bowler Styris 1pt @ 12/1 Will Hill This price looks too big. Styris didn't bowl in the demolition of Kenya, but that was on a very different wicket and against inferior opposition. He will have a big role to play in tomorrows game with his slow off cutters and line and length deliveries he could pose some problems. He performed very well against Pakistan in the recent series and I see him doing a similar job to Collingwood and picking up some cheap wickets as the Aussies look to up the scoring rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Top Batsman/Bowler is something I have been trying to master for a while now. Will be following this with interest, I wish you the best of luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Cheers big mac no players met my filters for Bangladesh, however two for Ireland top Ireland bat Botha - 1 point @ 10/1 bet365 He is a steady batsman, who is likely to bat at number 4. Stirling was a close call but I plumper for these outrageous odds. He is not a star like Joyce or o'brien but is certainly not a 10/1 shot so value has priced me in here as well as his experience and big match temperament. Top Ireland bowler Dockrell - 1 point @ 7/2 will Hill George shot to fame in the last world cup and his left arm spin will be the obvious danger from Ireland on a pitch that is predicted to play to bangladeshs strengths and be a turner. He has great control for one so young and will build pressure on the batsmen. He will bowl all 10 overs and I think he will pick up at least 2 wickets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Bad start - all losers! Tomorrows bets to follow. New bank 94 points. -6 points overall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers OK, here goes for tomorrows game. Stakes have been raised to 1.5 points per selection. Pakistan v Sri Lanka Pak top bat -Misbah @ 6/1 Coral Pakistan have actually almost become consistent in recent times. I still feel their top 3are inconsistent, with Shehzad and Akmal being too aggressive and often throwing away a good start. For me the safe bets are Younis and Misbah and I prefer the extra value of Misbah at 6/1. Sri Lanka top bat - Tharanga @ 9/2 extrabet Upul was unlucky to be run out in the first match but looked in great touch up until that point. He is an excellent price for an opener and continues to be underestimated by the bookmakers. Sangka is too short at below 3/1. I feel the start of the innings is the best time to bat against Pakistan who look much better in the middle overs at strangling an innings so am happy to get this price for an opener. Pak top bowler -Afridi 7/2 @ Bet 365 Afridi has become a very potent wicket taker in ODI's and is in excellent form. He now bowls his full allotment and I fancy him to continue his form in the middle overs here. Sri Lanka top bowler - Kulasekara 4/1 @ Coral I had him in the last game and he brought home the money. He will open the bowling and has an excellent record against Pakistan. He is a lively bowler and an excellent foil to the 'main' bowlers. Bowling at the start against Shahzad who is hit and miss and then Akmal, whilst also bowling at the death is a big bonus here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers New bank - 88 points Settled bets = -6 points Strike rate= 0%:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers A good day today:nana Misbah and Afridi did the business to bring the system into profit! Results so far Bowlers Krezja -1 point :( Styris -1 point :( Dockrell -1 point :( Kulasekara -1.5 point :( Afridi +5.25 points :clap overall bank 50.75 points profit +0.75points strike rate 20% Batsmen Taylor -1 point:sad Clarke -1point:sad Botha -1 point:sad Tharanga -1 point:sad Misbah +9 points:clap overall bank 55 points profit/loss +5 points strike rate 20% Combined bank 105.75 +5.75 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Huge game tomorrow! Top India batsman - Kohli 1 point @ 5/1 Skybet India struggled with bounce in S.Africa and Kohli was one of the few players who looked comfortable playing a bouncing ball. Admittedly the top 3 were very different then, but Kohli is a man for these conditions. He is in superb form and batting at 4 should get a chance of enought time at the crease whilst also being protected from the new ball in what could be bowler friendly conditions. The price is inflated due to the presence of Sachin and Sehwag who are justifiably short but Sehwag has a niggle and I have a feeling England will fire tomorrow! Top England batsman - Pieterson 1 point @ 7/2 totesport Big man, Big match, Big performance ....hopefully. He scored a decent 39 the other day but hit the fielders too often, I think the pitch will suit him tomorrow and also like him as an opener where i feel he is suited to taking advantage of the powerplay. It's also best for him to be starting off his inning against pace as opposed to left arm spinners :unsure Top India Bowler Sreesanth 1 point @ 11/2 Will Hill He's not guaranteed to play, he had a nightmare in the last match and he's inconsistent. However the pitch will suit him, conditions will suit him, England as a team suit him (10 wickets at an average of 16) and the price suits me! 11/2 is huge for an opening pace bowler, on a bouncy wicket and in expected overcast conditions. If he doesnt play the bet will be voided so I will take a risk! Top England bowler Tim Bresnan 1 point @ 9/2 Victor Chandler Again I feel the conditions will suit the big man here. He has a habit of picking up valuable wickets, will bowl at important times and will trouble the Indian batsmen by building pressure with his nagging line and length. The price is decent as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Huge game tomorrow! Top India batsman - Kohli 1 point @ 5/1 Skybet :( Didn't get enough time to bat Top England batsman - Pieterson 1 point @ 7/2 totesport :( Have to bow down to Strauss' innins! Top India Bowler Sreesanth 1 point @ 11/2 Will Hill voided - he didn't play Top England bowler Tim Bresnan 1 point @ 9/2 Victor Chandler :nanaA 5 wicket haul :nanawell done Bres!quote] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Another small profit of 2.5 points for today thanks to big Bres! Great match! Bowlers Krezja -1 point :( Styris -1 point :( Dockrell -1 point :( Kulasekara -1.5 point :( Afridi +5.25 points :clap Sreesanth -0 bet voided Bresnan +4.5 points :clap overall bank 55.25 points profit +5.25points strike rate 33.3% Batsmen Taylor -1 point:sad Clarke -1point:sad Botha -1 point:sad Tharanga -1 point:sad Misbah +9 points:clap Pieterson -1 point :( Kohli -1point:( overall bank 53 points profit/loss +3 points strike rate 14.2% Combined bank 108.25 +8.25points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Top batsmen Kervezee, Netherlands top bat - 1 point @ 11/2 Bet 365 He has come into this tournament on the back of a good season dowmestically for Worcestershire where he impressed consistently. He is one of only 3 true class batsmen in my opinion for Holland and as the other two are 3/1 and below, I will take this extra value, especially as he will open and have first use of the new ball on what should be a batsman friendly wicket. Darren Bravo, Windies top bat - 1 point @ 9/2 Will Hill He did the business for me in their first match and I have no reason to back anyone else. He has the same price, will bat at 3 and is in top form currently! Not much more to add. Top Bowlers Seelaar, Netherlands top bowler - 1 point @ 5/1 Bet365 I was impressed with Seelaar against England and his spin will suit the wicket and hopefully snare some of the Windies batsmen who will look to score quickly off of him. RTDoeschatte is way too short a price for his bowling so I'm delighted to get odds of 5/1. Benn, Windies top bowler - 1 point @ 7/2 Will Hill Simple again, he is the Windies most consistent and talented bowler and will find conditions and batsmen to suit him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Another day of profit for this thread! Seelaar bowled beautifully to win his bet and also unlucky to see Benn take 3 wickets but then for Roach to take 4 wickets in 6 balls- great bowling!!! Neither of the batsmen came close! Still a profit of 2 points not to be sniffed at, will update table and tomorrows selections later! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Well done, Otter... some great selections there :ok. I am not a big cricket fan, even though I was born within a few miles of Lancashire County Cricket Ground. Unfortunately, my father dragged me to the "other" sporting stadium at Old Trafford, so cricket didn't stand a chance ;) As a matter of interest will you be able to apply your system to domestic games, or is it only suitable for international ODI's etc. ? EDIT... sorry, I just re-read your first post in which you answer my question :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Thanks Grex for your kind words, I was a lurker on your short priced faves thread and followed your tips! You should consider bringing it back. Judging by your pic I guess u were a fan during the glory days - i remember watching match of the 70's on BBC and man u were pretty awesome back then. I'm an Exeter fan ;) enjoyed the fa cup matches a few years ago! early days but the system seems to be following my back testing pattern - regarding higher strike rate of bowlers and better prices with batsmen! The strike rate is pretty consisent and the prices have ensured decent profit and roi, within expected rates. Long may it continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Ps grex, using the system last season domestically and in the ipl, and the big bash - strike rate was slightly higher with some juicy odds winners. It will be interesting to see if this continues next season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Bank now stands at 110.25 so steadily rising - I'm on my phone but will post excel table when I'm next on my computer. Batsmen sangakarra top bat Sri lanka - 1 point @ 4/1 stan James He is in form, will bat at 3 and will score quickly. Dilshan qualifies on form but his odds rule him out. My only concern would be if Kenya get skittles out and Sanga doesn't get enough time at the crease but I will take my chances. Waters top Kenyan bat - 1 point 9/2 @ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Sorry phone wouldn't let me scroll down. waters top kenya bat @ 9/2 bluesq He's a classy operator and in a very weak batting line up, I will back an opening batsman at 9/2 who plays county cricket on good batting wickets like this one. Murali top Sri lankan bowler @ 7/2 1 point bet365 I'm sorry but I just can't let this price go for a player of his caibre against sub standard, outclassed oposition. On a wicket that will not suit the pacemen, I expect Murali to bamboozle the kenyans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers i remember watching match of the 70's on BBC and man u were pretty awesome back then. OMG... that makes me feel very ancient.... I was actually in the crowd at OT when Best made his debut in 1963 (I was still in my pram, of course ;)) Amyway, continue the good work... and good luck with your latest selections :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Starting bank---100 Current bank---110.25 Total staked----19 Number of bets-17 Winning bets---4 Losing bets-----13 Strike rate------24% Yield-------------54% Profit|or|loss----+10.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers This is terrific work so far. Great combination of good odds and strike rate. Shows cricket can be an interesting betting proposition if you know where to look. Keep going! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Cheers Faxy Fowler - bad day today, but they are always going to happen at some point or other. Stakes will raise tomorrow after a loss of 3 points today! Sanga came in too late, waters was hopeless and yet again a bowler took 6 wickets to upstage my selection - awesome stuff Malinga! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Tomorrows match is at the same ground as Englands match with India where a combined total of 676 runs were scored. :loon top batsmen Jonathon Trott - 1.5 points @ 4/1 Stan James Alex Cusack - 1.5 points @10/1 Stan James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Top Bowlers George Dockrell -1.5 points @7/2 Bluesq Stuart Broad - 1.5 points @ 7/2 bluesq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers For the non "willow-against-leather" (or is it leather-against-willow?) fans amongst us, could you please indicate the teams involved :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers In answer to Grex it's England against Ireland tomorrow :ok Was wandering Otter, do each-way odds fit into your system anywhere for say batsman at higher odds (ie. Cusack)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Yeah sorry grex pushed for time - home late from work, feeding, bathing and putting kids to bed now have 6 aside footy! Will try and post reasoning if I have time but I'm doubtful I will. Big mac, haven't looked too much into the each way as value is a key factor of this to allow for a lower strike rate. I think it's an interesting point and will do some testing; I know kevshat has success with this, however the majority of my selections are between 7/2 and 6/1 so prices like cusack are not the norm, but certainly worth looking into! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faxy Fowler Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Trott is looking very handy at present. Dockrell has three overs left to bowl and has one of Ireland's two wickets so there could be more pickings today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers Jonathon Trott - 1.5 points @ 4/1 Stan James:clap Alex Cusack - 1.5 points @10/1 Stan James:pukecame 2nd! George Dockrell -1.5 points @7/2 BlueSq:( Stuart Broad - 1.5 points @ 7/2 BlueSq:@didn't bowl well! 1.5 points up on the day, which could have been a whole lot better if it wasn't for the brilliance of Kevin O'Brien! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Re: Cricket - Top batsmen and bowlers BowlerOddsStakeWin/LossRunning BankKrezja5to11-149Styris12to11-148Dockrell7to21-147Kulasekara4to11.5-1.545.5Afridi7to21.55.2550.75Sreesanth5to11void50.75Bresnan9to214.555.25Seelaar5to11560.25Benn7to21-159.25Murali7to21-158.25Dockrell7to21.5-1.556.75Broad7to21.5-1.555.25BatsmenOddsStakeWin/LossRunning BankM.Clarke5to11-149R.Taylor4to11-148A.Botha10to11-147U.Tharanga9to21.5-1.545.5Misbah6to11.5954.5V.Kohli5to11-153.5K.Pieterson7to21-152.5Da.Bravo9to21-151.5A.Kervezee11to21-150.5Sangakarra4to11-149.5S. Waters9to21-148.5J.Trott4to11.5654.5A.Cusack10to11.5-1.553 Overall bank = 108.25 Strike rate = 20% ROI = 43% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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