Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams!

[themaverick]

[clay747]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! Surely the problem is the odds. After the 4 no wins for Spurs, if the next game is a home banker with odds of say 1.3, you would have to stake over a grand just to make your money back. Also, you have picked the current top four to look at, who will have the best win records this season. At the start of the season you would have picked Chelsea not Man City/Spurs.

[relf]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! Just want to add the point of Martingales, most people actually win money over it because they plan it in such a way that it takes 'some' amount of bad luck and 'bad runs' before their capital gets wiped out. Usually, it doesn't occur for the first couple of rounds thus it seems to most people that it's profitable. But sooner or later, these bad runs do happen. You see Liverpool and Chelsea clocking winless runs these season (I'm not sure exactly how many matches though). And you only need just ONE bad run and all your money is gone. In addition if the winless run stretches to 6 or 7, like what clay747 said, I'm not sure how much you need to stake for an odds of 1.30.

[themaverick]

[themaverick]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! Just had a quick look at the same system but for Draws. The biggest stake is a lot more manageable and profits better. Guess the only problem with this is a team going on a winning streak such as 10 games which is what someone like man Utd can do ..

Team	Matches	Win	Draw	Lose	Longest Draw Run	Longest run w/out a draw	Biggest stake needed @ 3.5 H/A odds	Seasons profit Stake £20 @ 3.5 H/A odds
Man Utd	26	16	9	1	3	5	£268.00	£450.00

[relf]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! In short, I think you might need to look elsewhere, or possibly tweak this system. Because, at the moment, it doesn't seem that it will work due to the seemingly-frequent bad runs which could run your capital dry.

[themaverick]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! Fulham are the best perfoming draw team with 13 then it's: Birmingham, Everton and Wigan on 12.

Team	Matches	Win	Draw	Lose	Longest Draw Run	Longest run w/out a draw	Biggest stake needed @ 3.5 H/A odds	Seasons profit Stake £20 @ 3.5 H/A odds
Fulham	27	6	13	8	3	4	£140.00	£650.00

[themaverick]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! It looks like it will be alot harder to run my capital dry if I went with draws. I have chosen odds of 3.5 but typically they are around 3.8 - 4.0 which makes a difference.

[Jenno99]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams!

It looks like it will be alot harder to run my capital dry if I went with draws. I have chosen odds of 3.5 but typically they are around 3.8 - 4.0 which makes a difference.

But, as with the wins, you are looking at the teams after they have got the draws. How would you know which teams would get the most draws beforehand? Martingale doesn't turn bets with no value into profitable ones and any team could go 10+ matches without drawing (and some will).

[Jenno99]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! The team with the least draws this season are Stoke with 3 and an 11 game streak without a draw. Interestingly, Stoke had the most draws last season with 14. Why is this? Have Stoke significantly changed their style of play to result in fewer draws? Is it all just random variance?

[themaverick]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! As with Martingale for roulette, when people wait for red to be spun 5 times in a row and then decide to start on black .... maybe you could watch out for teams that haven't drawn for 5 matches and then start the chase? I haven't looked back at previous seasons to see what the longest ever run is , but that Stoke run is a killer that you mentioned. I can't see teams going without a draw for 15 games etc.

[themaverick]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! Jenno99 - Is it all just random variance? I think you make a great point and this is why I put it out there to brainstorm the idea as I have looked at this quite blinkered and need fresh eyes and thoughts. Could this be made profitable or is it once again showing that martingale is still a virus and not the quick fix!

[Jenno99]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams!

As with Martingale for roulette, when people wait for red to be spun 5 times in a row and then decide to start on black .... maybe you could watch out for teams that haven't drawn for 5 matches and then start the chase? I haven't looked back at previous seasons to see what the longest ever run is , but that Stoke run is a killer that you mentioned. I can't see teams going without a draw for 15 games etc.

I have a friend (with a maths degree) who plays roulette from time to time. If it has been black 5 times in a row, say, he will happily whack his money on red "How can it be black 6 times in a row?! The odds are 64-1!" he exclaims. Your idea seems just as flawed as this one. Why should a team be more likely to draw the next game if they haven't drawn the five previous ones? Why not less likely? Perhaps the manager has said to them to always go for the win and get three points (and potentially leave themselves exposed at the back) if they are drawing towards the end. In the long run a staking system will not determine success, only value bets. If you could come up with a way of predicting the probabilities for matches to be draws accurately enough to find value in the bookies odds you will be succesful.

[Jenno99]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams!

Jenno99 - Is it all just random variance?

You would intuitively expect a lower-mid table side such as Stoke to have an average to above average amount of draws before the season started because they will be evenly matched with a lot of other teams. Why have they had so few? I've got no idea and didn't realise this was the case until reseaching my response to your plan. Is their amount of draws statistically significant? Again no idea, but given the small sample size I suspect it isn't.

[mister magoo]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! I selected Stoke as a team to lay the draw in their matches back in late November. They then played a draw and I deleted them from my thread. Since then they have not played a draw. The reasoning for my selecting them was simply that they had the least number of draws at the time, and I considered that that record would continue. They are a very good attacking side that either win or lose, no matter who they play against. Why ? I think they play more attacking football than their counterparts. This could simply be the way the team is coached...I dont really know anything about their coaching staff...I only have theories... :loon

[themaverick]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams!

I have a friend (with a maths degree) who plays roulette from time to time. If it has been black 5 times in a row, say, he will happily whack his money on red "How can it be black 6 times in a row?! The odds are 64-1!" he exclaims. Your idea seems just as flawed as this one. Why should a team be more likely to draw the next game if they haven't drawn the five previous ones? Why not less likely? Perhaps the manager has said to them to always go for the win and get three points (and potentially leave themselves exposed at the back) if they are drawing towards the end.

What I was trying to say that in roulette the amount of losses reds/blacks in a row could be 10,20,30,40,50 ...who knows what the record is but in the Premiership there is more chance of a draw happening at some point if a team has gone 5 games without one. I need to have alook at the data about the highest and lowest number of draws in a season in the premiership - i mean Stoke could have the Premiership record for longest run without a draw since the premiership began.

You would intuitively expect a lower-mid table side such as Stoke to have an average to above average amount of draws before the season started because they will be evenly matched with a lot of other teams. Why have they had so few? I've got no idea and didn't realise this was the case until reseaching my response to your plan. Is their amount of draws statistically significant? Again no idea, but given the small sample size I suspect it isn't.

I think with stoke they are so busy throwing so many men up front/in the box each time they get a throwing past the halfway line that they get caught on the break or they just get plain knackard! But again its no different to how they played a year before and you have stats to show they draw plenty!

[Jenno99]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams!

What I was trying to say that in roulette the amount of losses reds/blacks in a row could be 10' date='20,30,40,50 ...who knows what the record is but in the Premiership there is [b']more chance of a draw happening at some point if a team has gone 5 games without one.

This is the bit I disagree with. Just think of football matches like the roulette wheel but with the probabilities hidden rather than easy to calculate. You can see that in roulette or tossing a coin what happened the previous times does not affect what happens next time so the same applies in the football. Now, you may get teams that lose a match or two and then they lose confidence and they become more likely to lose the next one or winning a big match gives them confidence and causes them to play better. These psychological effects are present, but difficult to quantify. What if a team becomes overconfident and walks onto the pitch thinking they have already won? Also I don't think these psychological effects would apply with a team not drawing for 5 games in a row - they won't go out thinking "No draw for five games, let's draw this one!"

[themaverick]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams!

they won't go out thinking "No draw for five games, let's draw this one!"

I agree I dont think that... but what i'm saying is that if a team hasn't drawn a match for 5-10 games - surley there must be one in the next 5-10 and that's the time to start betting on one - i'm not sure what the premier league record is but i'd be suprised if a team has gone more than 15 games without drawing a game? Yes i know with betting anything can happen so i'm playing with fire making comments like that ...... But if I saw a team hadn't darwn in 12 games - i'd be fairly confident a draw would happen in the next 5 games ....but i guess that's why martingale is such a virus because it drains your bank through confidence that the win is round the corner. Doing the Martingale on the draw deffinately comes down to choosing the right team at the start of the season and as you have pointed out with stoke there are no deffinate draw specialists :pukeIf you make the wrong choice then :wall

[aldric]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! What are the stats for away games only? What about laying the draw, how many draws have they had in a row? You should also include Liverpool and chelsea as they would have definately been expected to be in the top 4 at the start of the season.

[Jenno99]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! Lets say Team X have a probabilities of winning, losing and drawing a match as 1/3, 1/3 and 1/3 for every match they play. The chance of them drawing 15 matches in a row is 14348907-1. As is the chance of them winning 15 matches in a row or the chance of this sequence of 15 results: WLLDDWLDLDWWWDL What will happen in their next match? There is an equal chance of a win, a draw or a loss. Having gone 5 matches without a draw doesn't affect the chance of the next game being a draw. It still depends on the quality of each team's players, how much rest they have had, the training methods, the referee, the weather, the pitch conditions, etc, etc.

[themaverick]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams!

What will happen in their next match? There is an equal chance of a win, a draw or a loss. Having gone 5 matches without a draw doesn't affect the chance of the next game being a draw.

I'm not trying to predict the next game if a team has gone 5 without a draw. I'm not saying that a team has not drawn for 5 games so the next one will be a draw. I'm not trying to predict one game - i'm predicting that in the next 5 - 10 games there is a high chance there will be a draw at some point if 5 games have already been played without a draw. If a team has lost the last 4 games and at 60 minutes it's 1-1 they may try and go for the win or they maybe away from home and hanging on for a draw.

[Jenno99]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! You are using the same argument as my friend at the casino. "We've had 5 blacks in a row, it'll have be red next time!" If it is he feels vindicated and if it isn't "No way can it be another black, I'm putting double my money on red!" and so on. We know that in the long run there will be 50% red and 50% black but what happened last time doesn't affect what happens next time or the next five times. You can look beforehand and say that the odds of a run of 10 blacks in a row will be over 1000-1 but after 9 blacks in a row the chance of another black on the next go is still 50%. Saying a team will have a high chance of a draw in the next 10 games is fair enough, as 25% of games end in a draw we would expect 2.5 of them to be draws. However, the pesky bookies probably won't offer us better than 3-1 so we will be out of pocket (on average) regardless of staking plan. The only way is to find games that are more likely to be draws than the bookies odds suggest. However, this is the hard part.

[Jase82]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams!

Jenno99 - Is it all just random variance? I think you make a great point and this is why I put it out there to brainstorm the idea as I have looked at this quite blinkered and need fresh eyes and thoughts. Could this be made profitable or is it once again showing that martingale is still a virus and not the quick fix!

Nothing's random, and everything happens for a reason. There are many many different factors that effect different scenarios, that can in turn change the course of a particular action. Understanding how different events can change the course of any succeeding event is a must in this game.

I think with stoke they are so busy throwing so many men up front/in the box each time they get a throwing past the halfway line that they get caught on the break or they just get plain knackard! But again its no different to how they played a year before and you have stats to show they draw plenty!

You're forgetting the impact other teams etc have had on the league. It's not just a case of the way Stoke are playing, which I think is a very simplistic way of looking at things. There are factors and events greater than just the other nineteen teams in the league that effect Stoke's draw ratio.

I'm not trying to predict the next game if a team has gone 5 without a draw. I'm not saying that a team has not drawn for 5 games so the next one will be a draw. I'm not trying to predict one game - i'm predicting that in the next 5 - 10 games there is a high chance there will be a draw at some point if 5 games have already been played without a draw. If a team has lost the last 4 games and at 60 minutes it's 1-1 they may try and go for the win or they maybe away from home and hanging on for a draw.

As others have pointed out. Just because they have drawn ten games so far, doesn't mean they are more or less likely to draw the next game. Each game has it's own unique set of principles, and should be analysed as such. Thinking along the lines of, Stoke haven't drawn for five games, they must draw the next, will send you very quickly to the poor house.

[Lardonio]

Re: Martingale - The Premiership 2010/2011 - Top four teams! Wolves played 18 games in a row without drawing before they finally drew on Sunday. I guess that run would kill off most martingale draw enthusiasts.