Flat Racing 23rd Feb 2011

[zoolander]

Kempton 8:05 Ongoodform 20-1 BET365(BOG) 0.5pts EW Kempton regularly throws up big winners and this one here fits the bill for me. Take its last run out last month as this horse doesnt run well fresh. With this run under his belt the reason why this horse caught my attention is its regularly performed well in 6f sprints on GF ground in higher class and off a higher mark than today. This is a competitive race and this horse's price says it all but he could run well if everything falls into place. I think the 6f on the quick ground around here will be ideal for this horse. Trainers horse are running to form, jockey is pretty good and this horse could come from under the radar and surprise the others. Kempton 6:05 Mutajaseer Forecast 50-1 BET365(BOG) 0.5pts EW Running off bottom weight with the claimer taking off 5lbs so running off a mark of 55(8st 2lbs) effectively. I think this C&D is ideal for this horse and has performed here over this C&D and course well carrying a lot more than today. I believe recently a combination of the course and distance did not suit but this race seems ideal. If its going to show anything than this race is an ideal opportunity to do so.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 23rd Feb 2011 5.35 Kempton Absa Lutte has been hard to predict recently she has been running well enough to suggest she is capable of winning again, btu wide draw did her in last time out as she lacked cover and was keen and similar story today unless they go a good gallop upfront today, although tongue tie is refitted today and looks well handicapped having won a 3lb higher mark and Baker is a very interesting booking after youngapprentice ridden her a lot recently. Estonia has to still be of interest off bottom weight in this handicap, still lightly raced and going the right way in the handicap sphere winning 2 in a row and then 2 good solid placed efforts since, including last time out when going the longest way round and hanging quite badly and might be worth a try this way round jockey also reported she felt sore and has since had a month off and could easily bounce back and she looks a real improver. 0.4pt win Estonia 7/2 bet365 0.1pt win Absa Lutte 10/1 vc 8.05 Kempton Several of these finished behind Clear Praise last time out, he is up 6lb for that win and may still have more to offer but at 6/4 is far too skinny. Ray of Joy looks a massive price if things fall right, she won off this mark 4 starts back and has failed to run to that level since off a 1lb higher mark, does need gaps to appear and needs a gallop to chase but at 20/1 is well worth the risk and a decent record around here with all 4 aw wins have round here over CD. Another that could be overpriced is Ebraam for an in form yard of Ron Harris. Regular on the AW and does know how to win often picking up claimers etc. which keeps his mark fairly static but is usually reliable and runs his race caught the eye last start round here when staying on late behind Clear Praise who had already flown, not so good back at lingfield over 5f but worth forgiving and should be better over this 6f although yet to win round kempton doesnt get that many chances. 0.1pt e/w Ray of Joy 20/1 vc 0.1pt e/w Ebraam 16/1 vc