tipser89 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Hey, I have tried to find a post I believe was in here someplace. I have searched and googled it, but I still can't find it. I hope someone can help me with my question. How can I work out a percentage for homewin, Draw and awaywin from two teams successrate? Is this possible? Etc. hometeam successrate 70,48 % awayteam successrate 29,43 % Thanks, tipser:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: finding game percentage from successrate? You could simply calculate some sort of average of both successrates. Home Team weighted successrate = (1 + Home Team successrate - Away Team successrate) / 2 Away Team weighted successrate = 1 - Home Team weighted successrate But that will only leave with some kind of DNB probability. I have no idea how to compute draw odds just from those two parameters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipser89 Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: finding game percentage from successrate? thanks ;) ok... then I come up with these nummers: Home Team weighted successrate = HTws 70,69 % Away Team weighted successrate = ATws 29,31 % then I took (HTws + ATws)/3, who is 33,33 % to find draw To find Homewinpercent I took = HTws / (HTws + ATws + Draw) = 70,69 / (70,69 + 29,31 + 33,33) then I did that also for Drawpercent and Awaywinpercent... Is this something I can do or is this completely wrong? Thanks, Tipser:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: finding game percentage from successrate? then I took (HTws + ATws)/3, who is 33,33 % to find draw To find Homewinpercent I took = HTws / (HTws + ATws + Draw) = 70,69 / (70,69 + 29,31 + 33,33) then I did that also for Drawpercent and Awaywinpercent... Is this something I can do or is this completely wrong? Thanks, Tipser:) It's neither right nor wrong. :lol 1. If you set Draw = 33,33% then HTws = 70,69 / 133,33, keep it simple. It is always 133.33 then as HTws + ATws = 100, always. 2. Draw = 33,33% brings you to Dws = 33,33 / 133,33 = 25,00%. That's ok for average purposes. But the thing is, tha the draw probability varies very much depending on the strengh balance between home and away. It is mabye 30-35% if both team are of equal strenght. It 15-20% if teams are far from equal strength. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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