EIDER HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2011-sat 26th feb

[ganjaman]

EIDER HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2011 The Totesport.com Eider Handicap Chase, which takes place at Newcastle on Saturday 26th February, is run over a marathon trip of 4M 1F and is one of the highlight of Newcastle’s national hunt season. In 2008 Comply Or Die won it en route to bagging the Grand National. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (1998-2009): Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 0-1-1 7yo: 1-3-12 8yo: 3-4-25 9yo: 4-6-40 10yo: 2-5-40 11yo+: 0-5-35 Horses aged 6 to 9 hold the call with a combined record of 8-14-78 Horses aged 10+ have a combined record of 2-10-75 Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 7-8-50 Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 3-16-103 Clearly horses carrying 11-0+ are preferred having won the last 7 renewals Top weights (3-2-14) have accounted for 3 of the last 5 winners. Official Ratings Horses rated 123 or higher: 8-10-68 Horses rated 122 or lower: 2-14-85 The last 7 winners have been officially rated 123 or higher and in the past 4 runnings horses rated 123+ have filled 11 of 15 places. Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last completed start 9 of 10 winners had run in the last 30 days 6 of 10 winners won on one of their last two starts (3 of 4 exceptions finishing 2nd last time out) 10 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+ 9 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 11 handicap chases (exception was having his first start in handicap company) 8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or higher chase 7 of 10 winners (last 6) had won a chase worth 20K+ 10 of 10 winners had fallen/unseated no more than once (7 had never fallen over fences) 0 from 10 winners had won at the track (only 3 had previously run here) Other Races Defending Eider Chase winner: 2F (0-1-2) Sussex National winner (Minella Boys): F5 (0-0-2) 2 of 10 winners had run in the Scottish National, finishing 70 2 of 10 winners had run in the Becher Chase, finishing F4 Both Irish-trained winners had run in the Thyestes and Paddy Power Handicap Chase, at Leopardstown, that season before heading to Newcastle. Trainers Ferdy Murphy (1-4-9) has gained a win and 4 places from his 9 runners in the past 10 runnings of the race Nick Williams (1-0-2), Venetia Williams (1-0-3) and A Parker (1-0-4) have each trained one of the past ten winners. Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-4) has seen 3 of his 4 runners makes the frame while Keith Reveley (0-1-4) has only managed 1 place from 4 runners, this was a race that his mother liked to target. Howard Johnson (0-0-9) and Sue Smith (0-0-9) have not managed to fill a single place from 18 runners between them since 1998. Irish-trained runners (2-1-9) have won 2 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 6% of the runners. Price 9 of 10 winners came from the first 6 in the betting and were 11/1 or shorter Favourites (1-4-10) have gained just 1 win in the past 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 5.00. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 6 to 9 · Carrying 11-0+ (top weight especially) · Officially rated 123 or higher · Finished in the first 4 on last start in past 30 days · Won one of last two starts · Run in 5 to 11 handicap chases · Won over 3M 1F+ · Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 20K+ · Trained by Ferdy Murphy or in Ireland · Priced 11/1 or shorter

[beaker1]

Re: EIDER HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2011-sat 26th feb i like comply or die in this race i also think its the first real chance hes had of winning a race since winning the grand national in 2008 for the last few seasons he as been prepaired for another crack at the national and with the handicapper finally relenting he does have a chance in what looks a normal race,since winning the grand national [2008] he was put up 15lb and for finishing second he remained pretty much high in the weights,last term punters still had faith in him and made him 3rd fav at a pice of 12/1 but he finished 12th and a couple of runs since have seen his mark drop to 144 he ran well for a long time in the totesport classic chase at warwick last month and he jumped really well fom the front untill tiring turning for home that was his best race hes run for a few yrs now and if he were to win this race on saturday it wont ruin his national weight which is 10st 8lb and considering his price of 50/1 for a horse who as had an sp of 7/1 14/1 and 12/1 for the last 3 nationals he must be worth a chance here,he also won this race before [3yrs ago]