RACING POST CHASE TRENDS 2011 SATURDAY-26TH FEBUARY

[ganjaman]

RACING POST CHASE TRENDS 2011 The Racing Post Chase is a 3 mile handicap that takes place at Kempton on Saturday, the 26th February. In the past decade some very significant trends have emerged that should help pinpoint this year’s winner. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 0-2-8 7yo: 1-4-22 8yo: 6-6-33 9yo: 1-4-27 10yo: 1-4-33 11yo: 0-1-16 12yo+: 1-1-4 Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 7-14-63 Horses aged 9 or older have a combined record of 3-10-80 8yos have the best record winning 6 of last 10, including the last 4. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 8-14-62 Horses carrying 10-11 or less: 2-8-81 8 of 10 winners carried 10-12+ and so are heavily favoured. Top Weights: 2P7P1123104 (3-3-11) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from their 11 runners in the past 10 years. Official Ratings Horses rated 141 or higher: 9-10-61 Horses rated 142 or lower: 1-12-82 9 of 10 winners were officially rated 141 or higher. Recent/Past Form 8 of 10 winners won last time out 7 of 10 winners post their highest RPR of last year on last outing (2 of 3 exceptions did it on their penultimate start) 8 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days 9 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 chases since August 5 of 10 winners were course winners (4 exceptions had yet to run at track & other was close 2nd in grade 2 novice chase on only run at track) 10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+ 7 of 10 winners (last 4) had run in 7 or fewer handicaps chases 10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases 9 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or better 8 of 10 winners (last 7) won or placed in a listed or graded chase 9 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 12K+ Other Races Previous Year's winner (Razor Royale): 242 (0-2-3) Aintree Bowl winner (What A Friend): 4 (0-0-1) 2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Masters Handicap Chase last time, finishing 17 2 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh National, finishing 66 2 of 10 winners ran in the Vote AP Gold Cup, finishing F2 Trainers Philip Hobbs (2-3-12) has won the race twice in the past 10 years and 5 of his 12 runners have made the frame. More recently though, Paul Nicholls (1-4-12) has been the trainer to follow in this race. His first string in the past 4 years has finished – (10) UR, (09) 3rd of 20, (08) 1st of 15, (07) 2nd of 10 and (06) 4th of 15. Tom George (1-1-4) saddled Nacarat to win it in 2009 & finish 2nd in 2010. Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-5) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-8) are the other two trainers with entries that have won the race in the past decade. Price 10 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 11/1 Clearly this is a race where you should be sticking with the market principals with no winner going off bigger than 11/1 in the past decade and 8 of 10 winners coming from the first 4 in the betting. Horses priced 11/1 or below: 10-11-60 (+20.50) Horses priced 12/1 or higher: 0-11-83 (-83.00) Favourites (2-2-11) have gained just 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 2.00. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 8 · Carrying 10-12+ (top weight does well) · Officially rated 141 or higher · Won and posted their highest RPR last time out · Run in 2 to 5 chases this season · Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases, winning 1 to 3 · Won or placed in a listed or graded chase · Won over 2M 5F+ · Course winner (or having first course start) · Trained by Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls · Priced 11/1 or below

[Stevet1859]

Re: RACING POST CHASE TRENDS 2011 SATURDAY-26TH FEBUARY 3:00 Kempton: Quinz 2pts win 8/1 Ladbrokes Quinz looks worth an interest here. He mets many of the trends and reading some of the articles on the Racing Post site this race has been his long term target. Phillip Hobbs know how to win the Racing Post Chase and looking through his form Quinz goes very well right handed. He has won here over hurdles. Quinz was impressive when beating Far More Serious at Ascot over three miles on good to soft going and there was no disgrace when third behind Time For Rupert at Cheltenham last time out. A slight concern with Quinz is the lack of experience in this sort of race, yet that means Quinz is less exposed. He has jumped well in his races over the larger obstacles, so every chance there is more improvement to come.