Jumps Racing Monday 21st

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This is me giving this gambling lark a proper go. Staking 10pts today 4.50 Hereford Quilver Tatou 3pts win 9/2 William Hill Quilver Tatou was beaten by Massini Sunset a couple of runs ago and then ran an abysmal race last time out when sent off an odds on favourite. The horse is now much better off at the weights than Massini Sunset and should reverse that form. His last run was too bad to be true and jumped very poorly. The stable is in good form and they reach for blinkers here in the hope they can sharpen up the horses jumping. I am willing to forgive the last run and I expect a much better performance here. This horse should definitely be involved at the business end of the race. King Caine hasn’t completed on his last 6 attempts and although the horse has won on heavy ground in the past, I don’t feel this horse can be backed unless showing an improvement in its jumping. Come out Firing returned from a break last time out with a decent effort at big odds. Although that was on soft ground and the horse is entitled to come on for that run, I think the horse probably prefers better ground that what he will encounter today. The horse has won off higher marks in the past so has a chance but just think the ground is not in its favour today so I am happy to swerve this one. I don’t think American World can be backed with any confidence after his last few runs. They have all been pretty disappointing and the horse has been beaten long distances. Think this horse still needs a little relief from the handicapper in order to get back to winning ways. Buffalo Stampede returns from a lengthy break but I have no doubt this horse will be ready to go first time out. Don’t think the horse will be good enough here though and I have a slight reservation about the ground with this one. Not the best ground to be running on when returning from an absence. Quintero I don’t think will be good enough to take this and was well beaten when falling last time out. Ran a good race after a break back in December but hasn’t really built on that since so that one is passed over. Still yet to win a race and I think will continue after today. Take it there is interesting dropped back in trip but I think will struggle off his new mark. The horse will handle the ground but was pulled up on his latest outing, albeit behind a Pipe ‘good thing’. Interesting as well is the fact this horse has never won in any months other than November and December. Can run a decent race but can’t see it winning on this ground off this mark. Star Galaxy is definitely one for the shortlist. Returned to fences and on this heavy ground, this horse could run a big race. The horse has won off 102 before under this jockey and runs off 106 here. No room for error here but will relish the ground and after a recent pipe opener over hurdles, this horse could run a much better race today. One that I think is too high in the weights now is Massini Sunset whose winning run came to an end last time out when beaten a very long way. The horse had won its 2 previous races pretty comfortably so that was a very disappointing effort. Is now on a mark of 115 which is 11lb higher than when winning at Plumpton and although the horse will handle the ground, I don’t think he can win off this mark. Abey M’Boy is a course winner and will handle the ground. January last year got within 8 lengths of Grands Crus over hurdles but the horses form isn’t that strong. Won his only race over fences on heavy ground at Uttoxeter off a mark of 107 but since then has been a bit hit and miss. Will probably get placed here but I can’t back this one for win purposes. That leaves me with Quilver Tatou after ruling out everything else. I see Abbey M’Boy as the main danger and possibly Star Galaxy.

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Re: Jumps Racing Monday 21st 3.10 Carlisle Bishops Heir 2.5pts e/w 13/2 William Hill Think this horse is best when fresh and today could be the day to catch him. This is the horse’s handicap debut and with the stable putting a 7lb claimer on top, I have slight reservations. They may feel that the horse needs a little help off this mark hence why the jockey booking. Even still I think the horse has a big chance. The horse goes well fresh and handles heavy ground. Most of the horse’s runs have come at Kelso which include a run in a grade 2 race but he has also won at Newcastle. That 5th in a grade 2 race is the best form on offer here and the horse should run a good race. Cool operator is a danger and has shown some decent chase form, but has never encountered ground this heavy. The horse was a good second last time out at Musselburgh but I think this will be a totally different test and I can’t be having him here. Teenage idol was a very impressive winner last time but has been hit with a massive rise in the weights. That win also came on better ground than he will encounter today and may just find this a lot tougher. Sometimes isn’t the best jumper and even though I think he will run a big race, I don’t think he will win today. Shooting times is the least exposed and is open to improvement on his handicap debut but this is a pretty tough race and I think he will come up short. Grandad Bill I feel still needs some help from the handicapper. Princess Rainbow returned from a slight break with a pretty disappointing effort at Ludlow. He should come on for that run and run a better race here. He is 10lb higher here than his last winning mark so might just find this tough. However the stable is in good form so I am not ruling out a good run from this horse. Bureaucrat was a decent enough horse when he was trained by Hobbs. He wasn’t totally outclassed in a better race last time out finishing a decent 5th behind the likes of Hunterview and European Dream. If building on that run, he could run a big race here. It was only December 2009 when he finished a good 3rd behind Spirit River. The horse will handle the ground and he definitely has an each way chance in this race. Rolecarr for me is the biggest danger to the selection. He returned to action in November with an emphatic win on heavy ground. He then followed that with a good second against a horse that won next time out quite easily. Was still travelling well last time out when coming down and with the stable turning the horse out again pretty quickly, I think they probably feel he still has a big run in him. Bishops Heir is the pick in this one as I feel he is best when caught fresh but I think Rolecarr and Bureaucrat rate as the main dangers. The price of 14/1 for Bureaucrat looks big to me and I am happy to take 13/2 for Bishops Heir.