Simple Pick Strategy

[Notreve1977]

I have always assesed value in a very simple way and am often taken back by the complexity of the systems that exist. My aim is to provide evidience that all you really need is one simple system........ if you back something at a price do you think it will it win the relevant number of times For example if i back something at Evn money the question i ask myself is will it have won over 50% of the time. If the answer is yes then i will back it. I bet on the exchanges and pay 5% commision so if i bet at fully formed markets i should acheive a -5% Yield so fingers crossed if i have an edge and good football knowledge i should be able to make this profitable First Picks Starting Bank = 1000Pnts All Bets = 50Pnts Level Stakes Tuesday 15 February Valencia not to beat V Shalke 2.32 Champions League (Valencia are 1.73 to win) Birmingham To Beat Newcastle 2.64 Premiership (What a Price!!) Cardiff To Beat Burnley 2.00 Championship Wednesday 16 February Lay Barcelona V Arsenal 2.05 Champions League (What a Price!!) My Goal is to beat every other system on here by using my incredible football knowledge and applying my simple strategy Wish me Luck :ok

[Grex]

Re: Simple Pick Strategy I agree that "simple" approaches often work well.... you can't get much simpler that the Short-Priced Home Favourites thread ;). However, I am not sure about your statement... "For example if i back something at Evn money the question i ask myself is will it have won over 50% of the time. If the answer is yes then i will back it." If you mean "has it won over 50% of head-to-head encounters", then I don't understand your selection to lay Barcelona at 2.05 (more-or-less evens)... in the last 5 years Barcelona have only failed to beat Arsenal on one occasion out of three. If you mean "it has a more than 50% chance of winning".... then that is exactly what most of the system authors here are trying to achieve..... to find "value" bets. Anyway, I wish you good luck :ok