GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2011 saturday 19th febuary

[ganjaman]

The Totesport.com Grand National Trial (formerly Blue Square Gold Cup) is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 4F, which takes place at Haydock on Saturday 19th February. Previous form in other Nationals is often a good pointer to finding the winner. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2000-2010): Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 0-0-2 7yo: 2-8-21 8yo: 2-6-28 9yo: 3-3-29 10yo: 1-4-27 11yo+: 2-3-32 Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 7-17-78 Horses aged 10 or older have a combined record of 3-7-59 Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 11-7 to 11-13: 2-4-18 Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 2-5-34 Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 3-8-47 Horses carrying 10-0 to 10-5: 3-7-34 Horses carrying 9-13 or less: 0-0-6 Not a huge amount to go on with the weights with the weights of the winners being fairly evenly spread out. Top Weight: 4P13PFPP132 (2-3-11) have gained 2 wins and 3 places in past 8 runnings. Official Ratings Horses rated 147 to 158: 1-4-21 Horses rated 135 to 146: 6-11-65 Horses rated 118 to 134: 3-9-53 6 of 10 winners (last 3) were officially rated 135 to 146 Recent/Past Form 6 of 10 winners won last time out 10 of 10 winners won or placed last time out 9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR on 1 of their last 2 starts 10 of 10 winner achieved career high RPR at a left-handed track 10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 7F+ 8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 handicap chases 7 of 10 winners had won no more than one handicap chase 8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or better chase (2 exceptions won a class 3 chase) 9 of 10 winners (last 8) had won a chase worth 17K+ 8 of 10 winners contested a class 2 or better handicap chase over 3M+ on one or both of last 2 start (both exceptions were novices) 4 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (4 of other 6 were having first course start) Other Races Previous season's winner (Silver By Nature): 483 (0-1-3) Peter Marsh Chase winner: 138P2 (1-2-5) Welsh National winner: 2P51P (1-1-5) Cumberland Handicap Chase winner (Etxalar): 1 (1-0-1) Classic Chase winner (West End Rocker): 6P4 (0-1-3) Aintree National winner: 86 (0-0-2) Scottish National winner: 408 (0-0-3) 3 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh Grand National, finishing 512 2 of 10 winners ran in the Classic Chase, finishing 27 2 of 10 winners ran in the Cumberland Handicap Chase, finishing 61 6 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 2 in one of Welsh, Scottish, Summer or Scottish Borders Nationals (2 exceptions were novice chasers and the other 2 exceptions won the Grand Sefton and Peter Marsh on previous outings) Trainers The Pipe yard (1-4-11), Lucinda Russell (1-0-1) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-6) are the only trainers with runners this season that have won the race in the past 10 years. Venetia Williams (0-3-8) and Alan King (0-2-5) have both saddled multiple placed finishers while Kim Bailey (0-1-1) and Richard Lee (0-1-1) have both seen their one runner in this make the frame. None of the six Irish-trained runners (0-0-7) have made the frame. Price 8 of 10 winners (last 8) were priced between 7/1 and 18/1 Favourites (1-3-12) have a poor record having gained just one win in the past 10 renewals, giving a level stakes loss of 6.50. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 7 to 9 · Officially rated 135 to 146 · Won or placed last time out · Posted highest RPR at a left-handed track in past 2 outings · Won over 2M 7F or further · Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1) · First 2 in Scottish, Welsh, Summer or Scottish Borders National · Won a class 2 or better chase worth 17K+ · Priced between 7/1 and 18/1

[beaker1]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL TRENDS 2011 saturday 19th febuary west-end-rocker alan kings west end rocker seems to have been laid out for this race since gaining a decisive success over an almost identical trip at warwick last time in very testing ground,hes been raised 8lb for that win but kings charge remains relatively unexposed at these longer trips after a series of light and injury abbreviated campaingns,still progressive he can maintain is good run of form and complete a hat-trick