ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2011 saturday 19th febuary

[ganjaman]

The Betfair Ascot Chase takes place on a top quality card at Ascot on Saturday 19th February. A grade 1 chase, run over 2M 5½F it should prove an informative race with a view to the middle distance chase at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 0-1-7 7yo: 0-1-4 8yo: 6-3-18 9yo: 1-1-10 10yo: 1-2-14 11yo+: 2-1-10 8 year olds have by far and away the best record having won 6 of the last 10 from less than 30% of the runners. 2 of 3 winners aged 10+ had won the race before Recent/Past Form 10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August 10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ 10 of 10 winners had at least 6 times over fences 8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions finished in first 3 in a grade 1) 9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade 1 (1 exception had won a grade 2 chase) 4 of 10 winners were previous course winners (5 of 6 exceptions were having their first course start) 8 of 10 winners were officially rated 150+ Other Races Previous season's winner: 3F342 (0-1-5) Future Champion Novices' Chase winner (French Opera): 1 (1-0-1) Peterborough Chase winner (Tartak): 3 (0-1-1) Cheltenham Victorchandler.com Chase winner 35 (0-0-2) Ascot Victorchandler.com Chase winner (Tatenen): 3 (0-0-1) 7 of 10 winners (including last 4) finished in the first 6 in a grade 1 chase at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival 3 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) had last start in King George, finishing 613 3 of 10 winners (last 3) had their first start of season in the Old Roan Chase, finishing 241 3 of 3 second season chasers to win it, ran in the Arkle, finishing 152 The record of horses that had finished in the first 5 in the previous season's Arkle is very strong: R121214 (3-2-7) Trainers Nicky Richards and the Pipe yard accounted for 6 of the last 10 winners, though neither have any entry this year. Paul Nicholls (1-2-11) and Nicky Henderson (1-1-4) have each saddled the winner once in the past 10 runnings. Henrietta Knight (0-2-2) has seen both her runners make the places in the past 10 years. Price 8 of 10 winners (last 5) were priced 11/2 or shorter 4 of the last 5 favourites have won this and only one horse priced in double-figures has been successful in the past decade. Favourites (5-1-10) have gained 5 wins in the past 10 renewals, giving a level stakes profit of 1.54. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: Aged 8 Run 1 to 4 times this season Run at least 6 times over fences Won a graded chase & officially rated 150+ Won or placed in a grade 1 chase Won over 2M 4F+ Course winner Finished in first 4 in the Old Roan Chase Finished in first 6 in the King George Finished in the first 5 in the Arkle Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson Priced below 6/1 (favourite especially]

[beaker1]

Re: ASCOT CHASE TRENDS 2011 saturday 19th febuary a small but select field for this chase and im going to take a chance on tartak here,earlier in the season tartak struggled badly to find his form but in the rescheduled petersborough chase at newbury he gained a spirited success which seems to have breathed a new life into this frustrating character,tartak having won is last 2 starts and seems to be progressing and im willing to give him the chance here to prove just that even though hes up against one or two others who seem to have every chance of going in here