Yellow + Red = GOLD

[Grex]

I know..... not another Grex thread :wall I am looking at the "total bookings" market. I seem to have devised a reasonably good statistical model for predicting the bookings "points" for matches (yellow = 10 pts, red = 25 points). I am looking to exploit this on the spread markets offered by the likes of Extrabet and Sporting Index. Only problem is.... I can't back-test the model without historical data on the spreads offered. Can anyone help ????

[Grex]

Re: Yellow + Red = GOLD Oh well.... no response.... I suppose it was an impossible question. Anyway, just for the record..... for tonight's game Fulham v Chelsea, the spread on "bookings" is Sell 34-38 Buy. My analysis predicts over 38 points, so I will "Buy" with a stake of 1 unit. Therefore, if Mr. Dean doesn't show any cards (unlikely.... over the long-term, he has brandished more cards per game than any other current EP referee) I stand to lose 38 units..... anything over 38, I win the difference. As you have probably realised, this is my first attempt at spread betting, so watch everything go pear-shaped :tongue2. This is a paper trial only :ok