Flat Racing - Monday 14th Feb

[Mirage]

Monday: 16.10 Wolverhampton A decent sized field for this handicap and one which could see the handicapper happy as most of the field could end up finishing in a crowded bunch at the front. The betting is pretty tight but i have picked one out at a price that i feel is too big. That 'one' is Snow Dancer. If you were to just look at the figures showing her finishing positions since her last win in the summer of 2010 you would expect her to be a big price. However, when i have looked a bit closer i have found quite a few things in her favour coming here. She has won at Wolverhampton before, has won over todays distance and not disgraced herself in higher classes than this, so nothing to worry about in those area's. Gradually she is coming down the weights after being as high as 80 this time last year and last month came a close 5th off the same mark as today. In that race she found no gap when looking like a possible winner and considering that was her first run for more than 2 months it was quite impressive. In James Sullivan she has a good claimer on board so, if reproducing a run similar to last time, it is possible to make the price of 20/1 look quite silly. I had her as a 12/1 shot in my head so when i saw that available i was more than happy to take it. Will take the e/w option too and add an extra half point to my planned stake because of the big value. I will take another in this race that i feel is a bit overpriced. Lay Claim comes here i good shape having won last time out - just 12 days ago. He does still have to prove himself in this class but i dont think this race is beyond his reach. He has won twice and placed a further 3 times out of 10 AW starts. The distance is no problem and i would say McCabe is in form so that is a positive. I think he is capable of carrying on from where he left off to go close here. 9/1 was where i would have put him in the market so 10/1 is a small bit of value. Loyalty was also of interest but there are a couple of doubts i had with the form so left alone. Cue 10 length win! 1pt E/W Snow Dancer to win - 20/1 with Paddy Power 0.5pt E/W Lay Claim to win -11/1 with Paddy Power

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - Monday 14th Feb 4.40 Wolverhampton Probably not the most competitive race on the card but could possibly have an over priced runner looking at tissue SP's. Norman Orpen is potentially still improving but on OR has a bit too find. Puddington Bear has been well beaten on all starts including claimer last time out. Mr Hichens was below form when last seen and has a lot to find on OR ratings. Lowther has returned to something like his best recently back on the AW with head gear reapplied but has a tendency to find one or 2 too good and will need a truly run race to be seen at his best and does have to prove he has the stamina for this trip. Fighter Boy is an interesting runner for an inform yard. He won a back end AW maiden last spring and was sent off a 40/1 shot in a listed event at newmarket and finished a good 2nd but both times suggested he would be better over further and its yet to be seen whether his mark now flatters him after that run. Been gelded since and not seen for nearly 10 months fitness has to be taken on trust. For me Suits Me is a very interesting runner, he is the only confirmed front runner in the lineup and could very easily get a soft lead here and could easily get his head back in front, usually consistent on the AW and looks well treated at these weights having been placed in listed and winter derby races at his best and has shaped a little better recently. 0.5pt win Suits Me