kayus84 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Hi everyone, I hate to admit this but i am being intensely drawn deeper into the bookies hole of gambling on soccer mostly weekends though. Anyway this trend has spawned something else in me that made me realise that it is possible to make between 10-20% profit on almost any match you bet on, as long as the match does not end in a draw. So the question is how do we determine which matches will not end in a draw? It doesnt matter if the home or away team wins, the 10-20% is guaranteed as long as the match doesnt end in draw. So please somene, any ideas on how to develop a system to determine which matches wont end in draws should spill it out NOW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: Profit in Matches that do not end in draws. This is difficult territory, people have been looking for the perfect draw system for ages. I guess the conclusion of most is that draws appear pretty random and that they are hard to predict, although there are some teams that seem to draw more than others. Low-scoring, low-conceding teams naturally produce more draws in most cases. Draws also occur in some leagues more than others, but that is of course reflected in the odds. You should check out Mr.Magoos thread, he's made a nice profit so far by laying draws. I believe his technique is simply finding teams that rarely draw and back that trend to continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Profit in Matches that do not end in draws. It doesnt matter if the home or away team wins' date=' the 10-20% is guaranteed as long as the match doesnt end in draw.[/quote'] You may want to rephrase that. Otherwise I cannot see how you will end up profitable. From my understand of that quote, you make 10-20% on either side winning the match. As about 1 in 4 matches ends in a draw, the system can only be profitable as long as a draw costs you at maximum 30-60% of your stake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betrader Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: Profit in Matches that do not end in draws. The tired old method of laying the draw worked ok in the early exchange days when we were all newbies in trading, but now prices simply don't rise enough to green up for long term profit. The newbies of today still get caught out with their pants down when the dog scores first, even when the fav obliges, the prices can be restrictive. Lately there have been new systems suggesting you only use matches where both teams are closely priced, ie:- no clear fav so no matter who scores the odds will rise, but you may find a high percentage of these matches produce the dreaded 0-0 or low scoring games with late goals. In this scenario traders begin twiching with anxiety as the time deteriation axis shortens faster as final whistle aproaches. Many newbie traders who dont use bank percentage fold up with the pressure of seing the increasing red and get out before the loss becomes greater (only for a goal to go in on the final minutes), it is pure torture for those guys but what more experienced traders make a killing on. Occasionally I take the contrarian view after researching a match and BACK the draw with a view of scalping out early in ascending lays. Small profits add up when compounding bank percentage and more than cover occasional losses! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayus84 Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Profit in Matches that do not end in draws. You may want to rephrase that. Otherwise I cannot see how you will end up profitable. From my understand of that quote' date=' you make 10-20% on either side winning the match. As about 1 in 4 matches ends in a draw, the system can only be profitable as long as a draw costs you at maximum 30-60% of your stake.[/quote'] kumquat, thats the point exactly, if there was a way to determine matches that will not end in draws, you can always make btw 10-20% profit always.ALWAYS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayus84 Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Profit in Matches that do not end in draws. unfortunately, no system exists to determine matches that will NOT end in draws as bettrader has said, disappointment may come from unexpected quarters...anyway, my quest is still on...which is to seek for a way to make 5-10% profit minimum on any bet...if i can get that, i am very content.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Profit in Matches that do not end in draws. ...anyway' date=' my quest is still on...which is to seek for a way to make 5-10% profit minimum on any bet...[/quote'] I think it is impossible to make 5-10% minimum profit on any bet.... you are inevitably going to have losers which will give you a (minus) 100% profit (yield) on that particular bet. But I wish you good luck with your quest to achieve an overall yield of 5-10% over a statistically significant number of bets :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayus84 Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Profit in Matches that do not end in draws. Grex, Going by what i said that you can make 10-20% in any given match as long as it doesnt end in a draw. Take the following scenario. Home Draw Away 2.25 3.4 2.75 Assuming a bank balance of 10 Pounds. Stake 5.5 and 4.5 pounds on each team Home and Away respectively ignoring the Draw. 2.25 x 5.5=12 pounds plus 2.75 x 4.5= 12 pounds plus The crazy thing is that the team you do not expct to draw will go ahead and draw. Anyway if you got any ideas, please share. cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Profit in Matches that do not end in draws. Grex, Going by what i said that you can make 10-20% in any given match as long as it doesnt end in a draw. Take the following scenario. Home Draw Away 2.25 3.4 2.75 Assuming a bank balance of 10 Pounds. Stake 5.5 and 4.5 pounds on each team Home and Away respectively ignoring the Draw. 2.25 x 5.5=12 pounds plus 2.75 x 4.5= 12 pounds plus The crazy thing is that the team you do not expct to draw will go ahead and draw. Anyway if you got any ideas, please share. cheers I really dont know what to say :notworthy :D Take a look this link: http://www.betvirus.com/topLeagues/draws/ So,for the 2010/11, with your 20% which U get with no draw ending U would be in a minor profit just with Austria and Switz second leagues and with Spain primera... with all rest U would be in minus. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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