TOTESPORT TROPHY TRENDS --Newbury-Saturday 12th February

[ganjaman]

The Totesport Trophy Hurdle is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 12th February. The race has had to be abandoned in 2 of the last 5 years so fingers crossed it will go ahead this year. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (1999-2010): Age (Win-Place-Runners) 4yo: 0-0-1 5yo: 3-14-56 6yo: 3-7-61 7yo: 3-3-48 8yo: 0-2-21 9yo: 1-1-18 10yo+: 0-3-10 5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just under 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses allotted 11-0 or more: 4-7-47 Horses allotted 10-13 or less: 6-23-168 Not much to go on as far weights go but slight preference is for horses carrying 11 stone or more who have won 4 of the last 10 from less than 22% of total runners. Official Ratings Horses rated 145 or more: 1-5-31 Horses rated 131 to 144: 7-19-138 Horses rated 130 or lower: 2-6-46 Horses officially rated 131 to 144 have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 64.2% of the runners. Recent/Past Form 8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out 9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time) 9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better handicap hurdle last time (exception Get Me Out Of Here came into the race unbeaten) 10 of 10 winners had run no more than 6 times since August 9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles 9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos when winning race for second time) 8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race) 8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+ 10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners Other Races Previous year's winner (Get Me Out Of Here): P00 (0-0-3) MCR Handicap Hurdle winner (Final Approach): 071 (1-0-3) Holloway's Hurdle winner (Tiger O'Toole): 4 (0-1-1) Gerry Feilden winner (Tocca Ferro): 4 (0-1-1) Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle winner (James De Vassy): 652U (0-1-4) Swinton Handicap Hurdle winner (Eradicate): 0P (0-0-2) Triumph Hurdle winner (Soldatino): F0 (0-0-2) 3 of 10 winners ran in MCR Hurdle last time, finishing 251 3 of 10 winners ran in Stellar Football H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 119 Trainers Nicky Henderson (3-4-27) has won 3 of the past 10 runnings. Gary Moore (2-1-8) also has a good record in the race having won 2 of the last two renewals. Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-7) won it with Get Me Out Of Here last season, and he’s entered again this year. Philip Hobbs (0-8-17) hasn’t won any of the last 10 runnings but he has filled one fifth of the places on offer. Alan King (0-2-4) and David Pipe (0-2-7) between them accounted for all 3 placed finishers in 2010. Irish trained runners (2-2-27) have provided 2 of the last 10 winners from less than 13% of the runners. Price 6 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1 but 4 of the last 6 winners went off at 14/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner. Favourites (2-3-11) have won 2 of the last 10 & show a level return to a unit stake. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 5 to 7 · Carrying 11-0+ · Finished in the first 3 last time out in a class 2 or better hurdle · First or second season hurdler · Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles · Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season · Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it · Run in the MCR or Stellar Football Handicap Hurdle this season · Trained by N Henderson, P Hobbs or G Moore

[diamond1924]

Re: TOTESPORT TROPHY TRENDS --Newbury-Saturday 12th February I took out 2x the field in this race a few weels ago. I have had sizeable by my standards bets on both get me out of here and salden licht, both were around 14s at the time. I don't think solix was even born when i struck my bets, both bets were each way. I got a tip for salden licht for the november handicap 2 years ago after he'd been brought from germany running for james eustace. He was an unlucky fifth that day, but having stuck with his undoubted class since joining alan king, he's classily kept improving, his latest win he purred like a finely tuned ferrari. Get me out of here joins a long list of horses i'd been following named after favorite "alternative rock" songs (buddy holly - weezer, caribou and planet of sound - the pixies, etc) initially just out of novelty. However, gmooh's form is the best in the book here following the repeatedly franked second to menorah in last year's supreme. Campaigned initially for a novice chase season gmooh has now been switched back over hurdles, i'm hoping he will now show his true colours, this his likely main target this year now. My favourite group "the muffs" sung the song :$