andu2k Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 After i looked with interest muppet77's system for predicting number of cornerkicks in a game it seems to me that it's complicated.So I've tried to make my own formula's for calculating this number and then compare it with odds from bookmakers.I will post the results obtained first 3 weeks for PL,Serie A,Spanish Liga and Bundesliga.All the bets are unders.The results seems to be outstanding until now but it could be just luck.We will see.I've established a 10 unit fixed stake and the odds are always between 1.8 and 2.The problem is the backtesting the system because I didn't find any archive with odds for conerkicks so this is based only on this season's results. Home Team Away Team Margin Odd Result Fulham Newcastle 10.0 1.975 L Man United Aston Villa 11.0 2.000 W Birmingham Man City 11.0 1.850 W Espanol Villarreal 10.0 1.825 L Hercules Barcelona 10.0 1.975 L Levante Getafe 11.0 1.850 W Genoa Parma 10.0 1.900 W St Pauli FC Koln 11.0 1.850 L Nurnberg Hamburg 10.0 1.950 W Leverkusen Hannover 9.0 1.975 W Hannover Schalke 04 10.0 1.900 W Hamburg Ein Frankfurt 11.0 1.800 W Sp Gijon Ath Madrid 10.0 1.875 W Zaragoza La Coruna 10.0 2.000 W Sampdoria Juventus 11.0 1.925 W Fiorentina Lecce 11.0 1.950 W Bari Napoli 10.0 1.975 W Parma Catania 11.0 1.800 W Ath Madrid Mallorca 11.0 1.925 W Barcelona Malaga 12.0 1.800 W Sp Gijon Hercules 10.0 1.975 W Catania Chievo 11.0 1.925 W Cagliari Palermo 11.0 1.825 W West Brom Blackpool 11.0 2.00 W Other 3 games were finished with a number of corners right on the edge resulting "money-back".Odds are taken from bet365.The table is upside down the first rows are the last games ( last weekend ).As we can see it bagan with an unbelievable series of 16 consecutive wins but, as it is normal,it goes then worst. So until now there are 20 wins, 4 losses and 3 returns. Bet - 120 Units Profit - 71 Units Percent Won - 83.33 % Yield = 59.17 % For today we have a game which fits in the system Bari-Inter U10 odds 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisB Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 24 bets - 83.33% Win - 59.17% Yield hello andu, really impressive serie. i don't know if the high percentage of win will continue because the laws of mtahematics we tell the reverse... what is your criteria ? gl andu :b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 25 bets - 84% Win - 76.8% Yield Bari - Inter 5 Corners WIN ;) Home Team Away Twam Margin Odd Result Bari Inter 10.0 2.000 W Fulham Newcastle 10.0 1.975 L Man United Aston Villa 11.0 2.000 W Birmingham Man City 11.0 1.850 W Espanol Villarreal 10.0 1.825 L Hercules Barcelona 10.0 1.975 L Levante Getafe 11.0 1.850 W Genoa Parma 10.0 1.900 W St Pauli FC Koln 11.0 1.850 L Nurnberg Hamburg 10.0 1.950 W Leverkusen Hannover 9.0 1.975 W Hannover Schalke 04 10.0 1.900 W Hamburg Ein Frankfurt 11.0 1.800 W Sp Gijon Ath Madrid 10.0 1.875 W Zaragoza La Coruna 10.0 2.000 W Sampdoria Juventus 11.0 1.925 W Fiorentina Lecce 11.0 1.950 W Bari Napoli 10.0 1.975 W Parma Catania 11.0 1.800 W Ath Madrid Mallorca 11.0 1.925 W Barcelona Malaga 12.0 1.800 W Sp Gijon Hercules 10.0 1.975 W Catania Chievo 11.0 1.925 W Cagliari Palermo 11.0 1.825 W West Brom Blackpool 11.0 2.00 W Bets 25 Wins 21 Loses 4 Percentage 84.00% Yield 76.80% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 24 bets - 83.33% Win - 59.17% Yield ChrisB, All I can say now is that my calculation is based on mathematics 100%. I do not take in consideration other factors like Team Form,Previous Results between Teams,Weather,missing players and so on. I will come later with games selected for this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 25 bets - 84% Win - 76.8% Yield For today we have only a game Dortmund - Schalke 04 U10 Odd 1.825 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 25 bets - 84% Win - 76.8% Yield U10 and Betfair 9 or less... are the same!? because bf odds is 2.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonxalo2000 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 25 bets - 84% Win - 76.8% Yield i get it...with 10 corners...you get you¡re money back...and you loose with bf :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 25 bets - 84% Win - 76.8% Yield Dortmund - Schalke 04 3 Corner Kicks WIN :clap Bets 26 Wins 22 Loses 4 Strike 84.72% Yield 77.02% For today we have 2 selections Tottenham - Bolton U12 - 2.00 Zaragoza - Santander U10 - 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 26 bets - 84.62% Win - 77.02% Yield wow awesome work mate - will watch with interest. if you think that you have an edge (backtesting?) then have you considered multiples? :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 26 bets - 84.62% Win - 77.02% Yield I've thinking about this and can be a good idea.The system need some delay to start each season ( at least 6 rounds if not more - I've started with it on this season only in January with 20 rounds already finished so maybe the results on the beginning of the season will not be so good ).There are an average of 8 selections each weekend, this means around 240 selections / season.If I want to say that it's worth to follow and gain some real money then I need to take also in consideration some combinations to raise the odds.Other ideea is to extend the system to other leagues too and increase the number of selections each round. My initial idea was to continue with paper testing until this season will be finished and even to continue with the statistics for the beginning of next season because as I've said, I don't know how the strike rate will look after only 6-8 rounds. Patient is needed, I'm not on fire because it happened with other sytems, in the beginning it looks promising and after a period the Yield decrease... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 26 bets - 84.62% Win - 77.02% Yield all good stuff mate, but i've just realised that the large majority of your bets are posted after the final whistle! not a problem as you are talking about your paper trialling, but i look forward to the results from now on. good luck again! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 26 bets - 84.62% Win - 77.02% Yield You're right about the first table.I've decided to put this when I saw what results were after first 2 weeks.If somebody has doubts about this then we can count from Bari-Inter.Since then I began to post and created this topic...The other can be considered as "backtesting" the system. For yesterday we have Tottenham - Bolton U12 - 2.00 13 - LOST :eyes Zaragoza - Santander U10 - 2.00 9 - WIN :clap Bets 28 Wins 23 Loses 5 Strike 82.14% Yield 75.09% For today we have 5 selections : Chelsea - Liverpool U10 2.000 Brescia - Bari U10 1.950 Lazio - Chievo U11 1.875 Valencia - Hercules U11 2.000 Sevilla - Malaga U11 1.975 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 28 bets - 82.14% Win - 75.09% Yield Impressive:clap, But how did you calculate it and where did you get your data from before applying your formular......:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 28 bets - 82.14% Win - 75.09% Yield Let me update your result for you...... For today(6/2/2011) we have 5 selections : Chelsea - Liverpool U10 2.000......Won Brescia - Bari U10 1.950.......Won Lazio - Chievo U11 1.875......Lost Valencia - Hercules U11 2.000..... Won Sevilla - Malaga U11 1.975.......Lost Profit of +0.95 point for the day..... With result you posted earlier i was tempted to put my money on your selection and i won. Thanks :gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 28 bets - 82.14% Win - 75.09% Yield with a little correction on Sevilla's game Chelsea - Liverpool U10 2.000 7C - Won ;) Brescia - Bari U10 1.950 4C - Won ;) Lazio - Chievo U11 1.875 12C - Lost :eyes Valencia - Hercules U11 2.000 6C - Won ;) Sevilla - Malaga U11 1.975 11C - MoneyBack Bets 33 Wins 26 Loses 6 Back 1 Strike 78.79% Yield 72.65% Result for last round (weekend) is 5 wins - 2 lost - 1 return. Both games lost were with cornerkicks in overtimes...but I cannot complain about luck.Sometimes there is, sometimes not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets - 78.79% Win - 72.65% Yield What about my questn? How did u apply ur Formular and where did u get your data? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets - 78.79% Win - 72.65% Yield I use football-data.co.uk to take the datas.But there are no posibilities of backtesting because I couldn't find the odds there, only the history of cornerkicks for games.The main idea is that i calculate my own odds using mathematics ( distribution formulas ) and select only those games whichfor I can find better odds on bookmakers than mine.I began now to build my own archive with odds and results.If somebody has such an archive it would be very good for backtesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nasco_ss Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets - 78.79% Win - 72.65% Yield who is the site for margin and odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets - 78.79% Win - 72.65% Yield see first post for details Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nasco_ss Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield I saw but did not understand from where or how we define margin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield The starting margin is given by the bookmaker.I calculate then "a deviation" .If the deviation is negative ( example : if bookmaker gives a margin of 10 and my deviation is at least -0,5 then my estimation for the game is U9.5 ) that means the bet has value in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nasco_ss Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield sorry but give an example with a match and there where the site is viewed margin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield I think that something is missundestod.I just take the bookie's odds and see if they had value or not ( with my own formulas ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield From this round I will include also French League games in order to increase number of bets.I will came later with the selections for tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield We have a lot of selections for today and tomorrow.For today we have : WBA - West Ham U11 - 2.000 Ath Madrid - Valencia U11 - 1.850 SpGijon - Barcelona U10 - 1.850 Arles - Montpellier U9 - 1.900 Bayern - Hoffenheim U11 - 2.000 Stuttgart - Nurnberg U10 - 1.900 Kaiserslautern - Dortmund U10 - 1.800 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Foreign Guy Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield Is it U11 with 11 as a push or U11, 11 loses? I'll see if I can track down some old corner odds for you, who knows what I have magpied away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield If you choose total corner is a lost but if you choose Asian total corner is a push..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andu2k Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield I use bet365 for these odds.If there is a odd for example U10, then for exactly 10 cornerkicks we have a moneyback bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Foreign Guy Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield Thanks. By the way, if you take U10.5 in the Dortmund game at Bwin @1.75 you have a win on exactly 10. Don't know how much lineshopping you are doing or the value of exactly 10 corners but that seems superior to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skycity Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Re: MUCK System - 33 bets , 78.79% Win , +72.65% Yield WBA West Ham was a goal frenzy, so many corners in the last 10 minutes.:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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