Flat Racing; Thurs 3rd Feb

[Lars]

18:00 Wolverhampton Dubai Miracle ran so poorly last time when heavily backed into favouritism. That was after a 3 month break, so perhaps he was a little rusty, and that run should have blown away the cobwebs. Another 2lb drop in the weights should make him more competitive, and in a weaker race than the last he contested, he should outrun this price. David Simcock’s gelding placed in a listed contest as 2yo but hasn’t fulfilled expectations since. His only win came on the polytrack, so he at least should handle the surface and that shouldn’t be an excuse for his poor runs on it the past twice. Those were perhaps at too far a trip (when last running here) and not 100% fit after a break when last seen. Martin Lane retakes the ride, which is a positive and it’s quite surprising Simcock perseveres with him. He’s 11/1 and I really can see him going off in single figures, so this price is worth taking now. 9 runners so hopeful we get the three places and if so, will be disappointed if finishing outside of him. 82 should be a workable mark, and I expect he’ll come out of the stalls better this time around, and be able to get a more prominent position. Dubai Miracle; 1.5pts EW @ 11/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing; Thurs 3rd Feb 2:00 Southwell - Clever Omneya - 2pts This isn't normally a race I'd get involved with but I think that the relatively lightly raced US bred Mare will relish the return to Southwell and gain her second C&D success. Clever Omneya is currently trading at around the 100/30 mark on the exchange and that looks a perfectly acceptable price given her highly impressive win here back in December, in which she scored by an easy 5 lengths on her Southwell debut off a mark of 47. She ran under a penalty next time out but was racing at Kempton, the race seemed to come too soon for her and she finished a well beaten 11 of 14. However, that was her second run in a short space of time, having won at Southwell on the back of a 6 month lay off, so it may have been all too much for this very well bred Mare. I think todays race should prove much more to her liking, and despite a 10lb higher mark than her latest victory, she should get competitive at least. Clever Omneya is bred to be much better than this mark of 57, as her $125,000 price tag as a yearling would suggest. However, she hasn't lived up to expectations but it's quite possible that she needed to run at a track like Southwell, where the fibresand surface is exactly to her liking. They should go a good gallop here and that will play into her hands, although it's quite possible that she'll be up around the pace herself. This is an all-fillies contest, with only 5 in opposition and given her style, that should suit. Franny Norton takes the reins again and he was the jockey who was on board for he C&D success 6 weeks ago. He's a jockey I rate highly and he is riding well at the moment, plus this is his only ride at Southwell before heading off for one more at Wolverhampton in the evening. The Jenkins yard are in good form of late and do well at Southwell, so they'll hopefully keep that record going. All in all, I feel the potential 3/1 available will be worth a smallish win bet in what is an open but very winnable contest. Clever Omneya shaped as if a fair rise in the weights wouldn't be against her and despite a 10lb higher mark, she still looks well handicapped to win at this course again. I marked her up as the 6/4 clear favourite and I think she has a great chance of gaining victory once again. 3:30 Southwell - Mister Green - 2pts @ 6/1 (Bet365) First impressions would lead me to believe that this will be a truly run race and the winner will more than likely come from off the pace. So although he has never run at Southwell, I'm going to take a chance of the potentially very well handicapped Mister Green to gain victory here. He's a previously high class animal on the flat, having ran well at Group & Listed level around Lingfield. He reached a peak rating of 96 but has since ran terribly at all sorts of trips before showing up much more like himself over 7 furlongs at Lingfield last time out, when well supported from 25/1 early doors, into an SP of 10/1. He stayed on well for pressure but the 7f trip probably isn't his ideal, nor is this 1 mile trip, but they way it'll pan out should be in his favour, assuming he takes to the surface. Mister Green was beaten by less than a length last time out, which was a hugely improved effort considering he has failed to make the frame in nearly a year. His last win was off a 12lb higher mark and assuming he can come on from that recent run, then he could prove to be very well in here, in a race that he'd be capable of winning with ease if on song. James Doyle gets the nod again, having been on board him for the first time when getting a good tune out of him last time out. Doyle is a jockey I rate very highly and he's riding very well of late, plus he has been on board this trainers last 2 winners in the last couple of weeks. The David Flood yard do well at Southwell and have a 14% strike rate here. Assuming Flood has this horse back to anything like his old self, then he should run a good race here. The headgear that was on for the first time last time out is on once again, which seems a positive to me, if it has the desired effect once again. Of the opposition, the lightly races Mr Emirati looks well handicapped and a potential improver. However, at 11/4 I don't want to get involved with a horse who may not be suited to the good gallop here. The main danger looks to be San Antonio, who won impressively over C&D when scoring by 9 lengths. However, he's now 11 years old and that may have just been a flash in the pan. He's priced up at 3/1 here and faces competition for the lead, both of those things would put me off straight away. There is a few other dangers but David Flood's 5 year old may have a lot more to give off this sort of mark and at 6/1, I'm happy enough to take a chance on him handling the surface. It's a wide open contest but I marked him up as a 4/1 chance, so he's worth a small/medium bet. Hopefully he'll run to his old abilities and gain his 3rd success of his career, at what looks to be a very nice price. 4:00 Southwell - Guto - 1pt Not a race for big stakes but this horse may be a decent enough price in what looks a very winnable contest. He's a 4 time C&D winner and is running well at present, making the frame more often than not. It's over a year since Guto tasted success but he's now 13lbs lower than that success and 8lbs lower than his last C&D success, which was in August of '09. Assuming he runs to the level of his close up 3rd behind Residency last time out, then I think he'll have a good chance of going close here, at likely odds of around the 8/1 mark. He's from the Bill Ratcliffe yard, who don't have too many horses but seem to do quite well around Southwell, with 11 winners from 101 runners. Matthew Cosham takes the ride, and he has been on board this fellow 3 times, with form reading ; 3-2-4, which is quite good considering this is a horse that takes a lot of getting used to and usually needs a lot of coaxing along. Cosham is a good young jockey and takes off a valuable 7lbs from his claim, which could be vital to the horses chance of winning here. Guto is decently drawn in stall 7, should get a race run to suit and possibly has his best chance of gaining victory in a long time. The 2nd horse in his last race has since come out and won, also under this jockey, so the form may not be too bad and I'm hopeful of a big run. Cape Royal also interested me at a price around the 14/1 mark, but he's unreliable in the main and is 0 from 25 on the AW, so I've passed over him. Cheveyo also came into my calculations as he's running quite well of late but may not be good enough and the likely price around 9/2 would be enough to put me off. A fair few others could have cases made for them but at around the 8/1 mark, Guto gets the nod. He's relatively consistent, goes well around here, potentially well handicapped and also a decent price. I expect him to make the frame but I expect a fair few of them to do so, so it's only a minimum stake bet, at hopefully a nice price. 6:00 Wolverhampton - Beetuna - 1pt @ 14/1 (Bet365) Competitive looking class 4 contest here, which should be run at a good gallop given the number of potential pacemakers in the field. Assuming they do so, I'm expecting the David Bourton trained 6 year old, Beetuna, to be in with a good chance of gaining his 2nd C&D success. He's previously trained by Bryan Smart and had a spell out in France, where he won twice and ran in some decent races. He has since returned to Britain but is yet to see the winners enclosure in 7 attempts. However, a replication of his penultimate start over 1 furlong longer at this course would put him in with a good chance. He finished 2nd to West End Lad, who wasn't for catching on going described as 'Standard to Slow', which wasn't in my selections favour as he just couldn't pick up but still ran well. The 3rd placed horse, Kidlat, has won twice since. The 4th placed horse, Buaiteor, has won since and looks a very good yardstick. Even the horse who finished last has won twice since, so the form looks decent and I'm hoping it'll count for something here. Beetuna is probably better over further, but if they go off hard in front and turn it into a stamina testing mile, then I think he's ideally suited and in with a big chance. He had 2 months off after that 2nd placed effort and reappeared just over a week ago. He finished 4 lengths behind The Lock Master, but could only manage 8th place. Assuming he has come out of that race well, he should definitely strip fitter for it and I expect a better showing. That was a weaker contest than this but I don't think it was his true running and he seemed exceptionally one paced, considering it was ran at a decent gallop. However, he's now a good price because of that run and I think he could pull off a mini shock in this company, if he doesn't get outpaced, which is possible if he can't keep with the likely early pace. Sam Hitchcott takes the ride, on what is his only mount of the day and he was on board this fellow last twice. I rate Sam as a good jockey and hopefully he'll be able to give trainer David Bourton his 3rd career success. The 14/1 looks a perfectly acceptable price, but due to the tough nature of the race I'm only having a minimum stakes bet. He's a 10/1 shot in my book and I'm hopeful of a good run if things go to plan.