Jump Racing; Thurs 27th Jan

[Lars]

15:25 Warwick Maybe a risky choice to be betting in a 15 runner handicap, with only the 3 places available with the bookmakers. However, I quite fancy the chances of Total Submission pitched back into more reasonable company, and think he could run a big race. Martin Keighley’s lightly raced 6yo, with only six starts under rules and two in Points, has been dropped 3lbs in the rating since his last start in Handicap Company. His only two wins have come at a trip of 2 miles, but on both occasions he looked that a fair bit further would be his ideal distance. His efforts since then haven’t been the greatest looking on paper, but there have definitely been some signs of potential. He’s been pitched in some tough races, performing best when a staying on 4th in a Cheltenham Grade 2 Novices Hurdle over 2m5f. The step to 3 miles looked perfect. He was allotted a mark of 125 for his first start in handicap company, yet again racing at Cheltenham, this time over 3 miles. That was a tough race but shaped very well throughout, until fading within the last 3f or so and tailing off. It was a decent effort nonetheless and he looked a future winner. Total Submission was last seen on the track nearly 4 weeks ago, yet again at Cheltenham. He was put back in a novice hurdle, this one coming up against some future top flight horses, and some are expected to be winning Grade 1’s within the next couple of seasons. He tried to make all, but he perhaps went off a bit quickly, and it was probably too hot a race for him anyway. I think his current rating of 122 isn’t too harsh, and there are definitely a few lbs of improvement in him. This race isn’t half as decent as the one’s he has been used to competing in (regularly for prize money exceeding £5000, this one only £4000). I still think 3miles is his best trip; he’ll act on the good to soft ground (won on it before) and Martin Keighley’s horses have been running very well at present. He’s currently 20/1, with the 25/1 with another firm gone. He’s around a 12/1 shot in my book, and I’m willing to make a standard investment today. Total Submission; 1.5pts EW @ 20/1 William Hill (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Thurs 27th Jan 1.50 Ffos Las - Charming Lad This maiden hurdle over two-and-a-half miles is an interesting one, with potential improvers, and potential useful recruits from the point-to-point, and bumper scene. However, I think Charming Lad can put its hurdling experience to good use, and score. The Charlie Mann trained 6 year old has shown improvement on every run in its short career so far. Following a couple of average performances in points, it got its head in front last March before being recruited by the Mann yard. Clearly fancied on its hurdling debut - being sent off at 11/2 - Charming Lad moved up going well with 3 to jump, but failed to see out the trip and ended up a well-beaten 4th of 8. There are a few potential reasons for this - an eight month absence, a trip that may have stretched his stamina (on its first run), as well as softish ground. It left his previous form behind when a close 2nd at Plumpton earlier this month. The winner of that race, Mister Hyde, has shown a good level of form - behind some useful types in Owen Glendower and Grands Crus - finishing 6th of 17 behind the latter in a class two hurdle at Cheltenham. Grands Crus went on to hack up again by 10 lengths, franking Mister Hyde's form as very solid. Charming Lad did receive 9lbs from Mister Hyde at Plumpton, but it's keeping-on effort suggests a race over this trip is well within his sights, and it may well come tomorrow. He should be fully tuned up for the run, and improve on what he's shown so far as long as the soft ground at the Welsh venue isn't too much of an inconvenience (good/soft at Plumpton). He can take advantage of his (albeit limited) hurdling experience and take this 1.50 maiden hurdle at a decent price. 1.50 Ffos Las - Charming Lad @ 5/1 (SP in most places at the moment. That is the current Betfair price).