KEY RACE: SKYBET CHASE -DONCASTER (ABANDONED)

[ganjaman]

this race is generally won by less exposed chasers who are proven over the 3 mile trip [abandoned last year] below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings [2000-2009] age [win-place-runners] 6yos - 1-0-7 7yos -3-2-14 8yos -2-5-24 9yos -3-5-43 10yos -1-7-28 11yos -0-3-23 horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 6-7-45 horses aged 9+ have a combined record of 4-15-94 weight:[win-place-runners] horses allotted 10-12 or more:5-12-80 horses allotted 10-11 or less:5-10-59 not a whole lot to go on here,however the highest weight carried to victory in the past 10 yrs has been 11-2 horses carrying a penalty [2-1-6] have won the race twice from just 6 representives offical ratings horses rated 137 or over:0-6-36 horses rated 128 to 136:6-6-54 horses rated 127 or below:4-10-49 no horse rated over 136 has won the race in the past 10yrs and the last 5 winners have all been rated between 128 and 136 recent/past form 7 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on there last completed start [2 of the 3 exceptions were unplaced in grade 3 hcps] 8 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days 10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 10 chases 10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 hcp chases 7 of 10 winners had yet to win a hcp chase 9 of 10 winners were either 1st or 2nd season chasers 7 of 10 winners had won over 3mile+ [1 exception was a maiden who had been runner-up over 4m 1f and the other 2 were having their first try over 3m+ 10 of 10 winners had won at a left handed track trainers paul nicholls [2-0-8]has won 2 of the last 5 renewals, including the last running nigel twiston davies [1-1-8] and david pipe [1-0-1] have each won 1 of the past 10 runnings venetia williams [0-2-9] and sue smith [0-2-11] have each filled 2 places from several runners in the past decade price 7 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 9/1 recent trends has been towards horses prominent in the betting,with 7 of the last 8 winners going off at single figure odds and coming from the first 5 in the betting favs [2-1-11] have won 2 of the last 10 runnings,giving a level stakes profit of 1.50 SO BASED ON THE TRENDS OF THE LAST 10 YRS YOU ARE LOOKING FOR - aged 6-8 - finished in the first 2 last time in the past 35 days - carrying no more than 11-2 - officially rated 128 and 136 - run in no more than 10 chases & 8 hcp chases - 1st or 2nd season chaser - won over at least 3 miles - trained by p.nicholls - priced between 4/1 and 9/1

[TAPK]

Re: KEY RACE: SKYBET CHASE -DONCASTER 29TH JANUARY Excellent stats there Ganjaman,unfortunately i cant say they reassure me that my selection Calgary Bay has any chance at all now. What does inspire me though is the fact that he is back down to a very reasonable mark and is running over a course and distance that has enabled a smooth victory in the past. Calgary Bay has always been a horse who"s reputation has been shouted about rather than just spoken,nowadays its more of a whisper as 3 wins in 22 attempts doesn"t inspire too much confidence.The day he won the "Dipper" quotes for future Gold Cups were plentiful but he never lived up to his lofty 150 rating against grade 1 horses,he was dropped to a realistic 142 and duly won at Doncaster as i previously mentioned,again he shot up the ratings to an all time high of 153,connections thought he was worth his Gold Cup place and he didn"t embarrass himself.Several more lack lustre attempts have again seen him drop to a very decent mark of 143 and anyone who fancies the favourite Fistral Beach should take a look at the collateral form of Le Burf,Nacarat and Mount Oscar in relation to Calgary Bay,the latter who is set to concede the favourite 3lb looks a good 20lb better on form.I have taken the 14/1 about Calgary Bay e/w and am quietly confident of at least a place.