Flat Racing 25th January

[cpo]

3.20 Southwell Where's Reiley 8/1 1pt e/w William Hill Now on a mark of 68, think this horse could go well today. Went on a little run over CD around this time last year. Gibbons booked for the ride taking over from Dean Heslop is a positive. It is an extremely competitive race in which a chance can be given to most of the field but my selection ran a bit better last time out and could be ready to hit form. Barron's horses always get a second look from me when running here. I used to live next door to him in Maunby which is another reason why I always take interest at anything he runs. Runs a couple earlier on the card in which waveband must be given a good chance but I this ones interests me the most. Think they will go a very fast pace up front in this race which will suit my selection. Sometimes seems to get outpaced over CD but picks up really well. I expect him to be finishing very strongly and if any money comes for him tomorrow morning it would make me even more confident about this horse.

[ganjaman]

Re: Flat Racing 25th January 12.50 – Class 6 handicap to kick off proceedings, and I feel the hardest race of the day. I have three picks, Bertrand, Errigal Lad and We’ll Deal Again. The first (Bertrand) racing off a pound lower than a good 3^rd lto pulling 4 lengths clear of 4^th so has a definite place opportunity (one for the lucky 15’s). I don’t think Dean Heslop’s claim will stop Errigal Lad reversing the placings with Gold Story especially with Luke Morris in the saddle. The danger may well be an Easterby touch. Only had two starts at Southwell but the first was over this distance (under paul hanagan) came 3^rd but in a higher grade and only a pound lower. The 2^nd was an apprentice race over too far so scrap that. Been off the track for couple of months now and could well be primed. 13.20 – I’ll be punting with April Fool in this one. Alpha Tauri was a big disappointed lto and I’m unsure whether he likes being challenged for the early lead, making him go a little too fast. Army of Stars cannot cope with the weight (judging from other weight carrying performances) so is instantly ruled out. Topcroft has been out for ages (watch market) and Nora Looby on Elusive Warrior does not inspire me. Leaving April Fool. Completely agree with anyone who says he’s bad in at the weights because it’s true, but he has won at Southwell with the same weight on, down a furlong which I doubt will hinder and I think Dave Probert is a sound pilot. 13.50 – Hmm another muddling Handicap. Firstly start off with those at the top of the market. Steed is carrying an extra stone on his back from lto so is discounted, and Gordy’s Bee’s form is a little hard to work out, but he definitely likes Southwell so is a placepot banker. I will be plumpling for Positivity though, from the Smart stable that couldn’t be in better form. This will be his 3^rd run back from a break so should be primed to strike, has past experience at Southwell mainly over today’s distance but is on a mark he’s never won off. I’ll chance it. 14.20 - Division 2 of the handicap. It might be worth punting with the old boy San Antonio, who seemed to like his first (lto) trip to Southwell ending up only 6 lengths behind course specialist McConnell. That was in a class higher. He’s been off for a couple of months to freshen up but at 11 years of ages I’m not sure he’s worth a gamble. This one’s for Eddy is stepping up a furlong which im not sure will suit, Nurai has never raced on the fibresand so it leaves me with Tomintoul Star. It’s been a long time since a Ruth Carr win, but I’m pondering if today is her day. I thought its decent 3^rd lto was very creditable and is only a lb higher than its last win (at Southwell). Maybe a reverse forecast with him and San Antonio might be in order. 14.50 – Euurgh one of those 5f sprint handicap races! They often throw up surprises’, but with a smaller field it should be easier to break down. Waveband had Sir Geoffrey & Luscivious behind him lto but will be short. (Their not weighted to reverse form) Feeling foxy is on too high a mark judging by previous efforts here. Leaves two left, Divertimenti who’s awful at Southwell and Arganil. His record over C&D is 1-1, off this mark. That was 2 years ago though and I’m a little suspect of current form. Overall it means that Waveband might just be value at the short price! 15.20 – Forever’s girl, Verinco, La Capriosa, Grudge, Colorus, Ridley Didley, Sharp Shoes, Desert Strike, Sleepy Blue Ocean – Marks to high. BookiesIndex Boy been off for ages. First Blade no chance. Amazingly this leaves 3. Watch out for that earlier Ruth Carr runner, if it goes well Galpin Junior could do also although the jockey booking isn’t encouraging. Incomparable is 3lbs higher (mark) than his last win at Southwell but has been running well off these higher marks so should hit the frame. My one to concentrate on though will be Where’s Reily. Had a reappearance run behind a couple of these lto, fully justified to come on from that, last winter made a hat trick of wins over C&D with Gibbons on board off a 6lb higher mark. At a nice 8-1 a definite player.