Jump to content

Regression Graphs


Recommended Posts

Hi folks, Okay so I have just learned a little bit about Regression Charts and have become quite comfortable with putting these together in Excel. I was playing around with them of a previous thread as part of Goals Superiority system I was looking at. My question is, how useful do people find them? I personally thinks they are a useful tool (if I understand them correctly) being able to plot a "best-fit" line through a series of outcomes (in my case, the % chance of a Home win, Draw, Away Win based on a rating system) which will in the end allow the calculation of fair odds. How do people feel about this method and is there a better way to do things? Andy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Regression Graphs Hi Andrew..... I have used linear equations derived from "best fit" lines in Excel quite extensively in the past (I didn't realise they were called "regression charts" :$). If I am doing an analysis of historical data, I try to include at least 5,000 games and then apply the linear (straight line) best-fit line to produce a probability equation for various outcomes (1X2, O/U, AH... whatever). If I can can get an R2 value in excess of 0.9, then I am reasonably confident. Obviously, the probability equation can then be used to assess theoretical odds value, and.... hey presto... you have a winning system :lol Probably the statistics experts will have more knowledgeable comments on this type of analysis.... but for me, it has generally produced positive results. :ok

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This thread has more posts. To see them, you'll need to sign up or sign in.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...