Match Rating System

[AndrewKent]

Hi folks, Its me again, still on my quest to find learn how systems are developed. In a previous thread I asked about this system: http://www.football-data.co.uk/ratings.pdf well, I've got as far as capturing all the data, working out the probability of 1X2 based on this, AND have plotted all the graphs with best fit lines which give me the calculations I need. Question is, in the example, the author is looking at match ratings of "0" which gives the equation of "y = 1.56x + 46.47", 46.47 being the intercept point on the Home Wins graph, which is point "0". Now, if I wanted to have the same calculation but for a match rating of say, -5, would the 46.47 AND 1.56 have to change? Considering that a rating of -5 (and excuse the eyeball calculation here) is 38-39%? Therefore, the 1.56 (and R squared) calculations would be different. Any help? Andy

[relf]

Re: Match Rating System If the match rating is -5, you just need to substitute x=-5, 1.56 and 46.47 remains the same, that gives 38.67%. Which means the fair odds is 2.59. Anything above that is value. I did take a look at this before, but I realized it's a bit too simplistic to judge from the previous 6 matches. After all, most teams have VERY DIFFERENT home and away forms, and the ratings can vary quite a lot depending on whether the 6 games are made up of 3 home and 3 away, or 4 home 2 away, or 2 home 4 away, etc. But if I were to sort based on the previous 6 home results, or the previous 6 away results, then it's a bit too much to ask because there's only 19 home/away matches in a season.