Jump Racing - 4th January

[Lars]

15:20 Leicester A major leap of faith is required for Katalak but I think it might be one worth taking. This horse has only won once in his career, from 40 starts. That stat is highly uninspiring, but on his efforts in early 2010, he could well get another victory. He’s an Aga Khan bred 8yo, who had a disappointing career over in Ireland, especially from the pedigree he had. He was expected to be much better. His only win came in a maiden hurdle over there however. That was over 2m4f, and although his only win, probably wasn’t his best performance. Joined the John De Giles stable in 2009, and has put up some few good performances. Notably, on faster ground over today’s trip over 2m7f at Worcester, finishing 2nd in a fairly average Novice Chase there. He pulled well clear of the remainder of the field however, and was only just beaten by a type whose placed off a mark of 113. His best performance however, was at Kempton last April. He finished like a train over 3 miles, coming from a fair distance back, being horribly impeded 2 fences out and lost a lot of momentum. From that run, he looked to be a type who could pick up a race like this. He was then tried over a bit further, and although travelling nicely, found nothing and probably didn’t stay. He’d had a long campaign and he may have just been exhausted. He was last seen at the racetrack three weeks ago. After a 8 month absence, his poor run can probably be excused. He ran so bad to be true, was easy to back in the betting ring, and the ground was riding much softer than officially declared. It’s fairly easy to write that effort off. Today, he is likely to get a much sounder surface. Although he’s won on good to soft, he’s placed on good ground, and also on firmer ground. The better ground will suit him no end. Tongue tie can also make a difference, and it is applied today. Katalak has also been dropped 4lbs in the weights, and this puts him on an attractive looking mark of 96. He should have possibly won off a mark of 100 over this trip, he could be well-weighted. It’s an optimistic bet, but he should strip much fitter than his last run. He’ll get ground that he likes, and is back to a trip that he gets well, having travelled well and found a bit extra over it before. Dropping a few lbs in the weights won’t harm him, and I think there’s value in the current 20/1 tag. Katalak; 1pt EW @ 20/1 William Hill (bog)

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing - 4th January

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Leicester 14:20
Selection	Dun See Dee
Strength	1/10
Date	04/01/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 0.00
Reasoning	Chased home a 130-rated rival last time out. Just no match so Silver Gypsy who went on eased by 7 lengths - now set to go off in Listed race in 4 days. She will need a lot of beating for her to lose this race. She looked good in PTP and had shown she can go as well under rules after two starts at Exeter. A P McCoy is booked for the first time and he likes this track - 35% strike rate the past 5 seasons and this is one of his two rides today.