Jump Racing - 3rd January

[Lars]

15:00 Hereford Yet again, some doubt to whether this will be on. But I know that this price is unlikely to be here in the morning, so have to take it now. He’s a horse I’ve been waiting for, for quite a while after the freeze stopped Willandrich planned engagement last month. Much of what I wrote for him last time is relevant here... This is what I said.

“. However, I really like the chances of Ian Williams’ Willandrich, and at these odds, I think he’s worth a decent sized bet. 8yo gelding, who has an exceptional strike rate of 6 victories from 12 runs, including completing a hat-trick of wins on two different occasions. The first of these came in 2007, one in a Handicap Hurdle, and the next two being in Novice Chase company. He then had almost two years off, owing to tendon problems. Seems to be over these (touchwood) now as has recorded 3 victories from five starts, and the two starts in which he hasn’t won, were when coming back from an absence. He has jumped from a hurdles mark of 89 to one now of 108, all of those wins coming at this sort of trip. He isn’t as flashier winner as some of these in this field, but knows how to get the job done, often needing to be quite aggressively ridden, but finds plenty for pressure which is a positive sign. His last victory (off 5lbs less than he runs off today) was an example of this, having to pull out all the stops to get past Art Exhibition, but eventually won quite well. He’s a gutsy horse, and has an favourable attitude... Has had one run to date this season, coming at Haydock over 3 miles. He ran creditably that day, even though; it’s over a trip that may be just a little bit too far for him and he had an absence of 8 months to contend with too. That run should have put him about right...Last time he had a fairly long break, it took him a run where he showed some promise but ultimately faded, before gaining a victory. Lets hope this happens again today!”

Today, he gets a 2m6f trip. This should suit him down to the ground, as I believe he didn’t quite get 3 miles when he ran at Haydock. He stayed on well when winning over an extended 2m5f, so this trip should be well within his grasp. The easier ground today will also suit, having won on it twice. This is a less competitive race than entered for last time, with the main danger being Salpierre. However, I think the 8/1 on offer is exceptional value. I have him as a 9/2 shot, so this big price is of major interest. He does have a bit of a hike in the weights, but I think there is still further progression in him. He should be fit and well enough for a big run today, and can see him going very close. Willandrich; 2pts EW @ 8/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Primevil]

Re: Jump Racing - 3rd January 1.10 Lingfield, Fleur de vassey Rates as NAP material today. 3 weeks ago the race at Plumpton got this horse just about to peak fitness, and should be ready to do the business today on this more testing track. The stable(v williams) is one to follow in the next few weeks and i can see them hitting the hot list by the end of January. FDV's opposition today is limited and i expect this horse to win and win well. There is no advertised prices as yet, but expect to get at least 7/4, I am looking to get £500 on at this price or bigger. GL:hope