sjt91 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Firstly hello all, I've been a lurker around these parts for a while and I thought I'd join so that I could try and keep track of this system. There's two systems I'm looking to test here. I have a ranking system calculated in a similar way to Elo Ratings, and shall be using that as a basis for the system, backing where there is value compared to the odds at the bookies. I shall be staking more where I think there is more value in the odds, and less where there is less - so the stakes will vary. System B takes into account the form rating, which is a weighted measure of their actual points versus expected points under the ranking system, basically it measures their form compared to the expectation based on their rankings. For system A I shall be excluding those matches where the team backed has a form rating more than 3 below the opponent. For system B I shan't be using the form rating, only the team rating. So system B contains all the same bets as system A and then more. This is a paper trail, it might not work, it might do. Odds are from Betfair and I shall be deducting the 5% commission. System A Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 100 Total staked: 0.00 Number of bets: 0 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 0 Yield: 0% Profit (or Loss): 0 System B Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 100 Total staked: 0 Number of bets: 0 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 0/0 Yield: 0% Profit (or Loss): 0.00 I'll be using the Premiership & Championship for this, since they are the only ones that I keep form figures for, and the bets shall only be those that show value worth a stake of at least £2, since I'm testing with Betfair odds I should use their rules - you know, do a paper trail as I'd actually be able to bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Simon's Value Betting System A & System B 02.01.11 Aston Villa, £4.63 @ 15.0 03.01.11 Bristol City, £8.33 @ 7.8 04.01.11 Fulham, £2.10 @ 2.26 05.01.11 Blackburn, £8.18 @ 3.7 Only System B 03.01.11 Scunthorpe, £3.09 @ 3.3 Expect a couple more to come in for the 5th, once I have the updated rankings after the matches being played tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: Simon's Value Betting System A & System B 02.01.11 Aston Villa, £4.63 @ 15.0 (3-3 - wow, what a finish to the game!) Meaning this: System A Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 95.47 Total staked: 4.63 Number of bets: 1 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 0/1 Yield: -100% Profit (or Loss): -4.63 System B Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 95.47 Total staked: 4.63 Number of bets: 1 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 0/1 Yield: -100% Profit (or Loss): -4.63 These to come: Both Systems 03.01.11 Bristol City, £8.33 @ 7.8 04.01.11 Fulham, £2.10 @ 2.26 05.01.11 Blackburn, £8.18 @ 3.7 Only System B 03.01.11 Scunthorpe, £3.09 @ 3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Simon's Value Betting Currently in play: Both Systems 03.01.11 Bristol City, £8.33 @ 7.8 (2-2) Only System B 03.01.11 Scunthorpe, £3.09 @ 3.3 (1-2) System A Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 87.04 Total staked: 12.96 Number of bets: 2 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 2 Strike rate: 0/2 Yield: -100% Profit (or Loss): -12.86 System B Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 83.95 Total staked: 15.95 Number of bets: 2 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 2 Strike rate: 0/2 Yield: -100% Profit (or Loss): -16.05 Future bets (added Wolves on 5th January) Both systems: 04.01.11 Fulham, £2.10 @ 2.26 05.01.11 Blackburn, £8.18 @ 3.7 Wolves £2.40 @ 8.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Simon's Value Betting Results -- Both Systems 04.01.11 Fulham, £2.10 @ 2.26 (3-0) Positions -- System A Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 89.55 Total staked: 15.06 Number of bets: 3 Winning bets: 1 Losing bets: 2 Strike rate: 1/3 Yield: -69.4% Profit (or Loss): -10.45 System B Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 86.46 Total staked: 18.05 Number of bets: 3 Winning bets: 1 Losing bets: 2 Strike rate: 1/2 Yield: -75.0% Profit (or Loss): -13.54 Future Bets -- Both Systems 05.01.11 Blackburn, £8.18 @ 3.7 Wolves £2.40 @ 8.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Simon's Value Betting Fantastic tonight, both bets coming off: Both Systems 05.01.11 Blackburn, £8.18 @ 3.7 (3-1) Wolves £2.40 @ 8.2 (1-0) Positions -- System A Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 126.95 Total staked: 25.64 Number of bets: 5 Winning bets: 3 Losing bets: 2 Strike rate: 3/5 Yield: 105.1% Profit (or Loss): 26.95 System B Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 123.86 Total staked: 28.73 Number of bets: 6 Winning bets: 3 Losing bets: 3 Strike rate: 3/6 Yield: 83.0% Profit (or Loss): 23.86 Future Bets -- TBA I've also updated the first post with a list of all bets so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Simon's Value Betting Some for the FA Cup Both systems -- 08.01.11 Arsenal, £4.05 @ 1.31 Blackburn, £10.45 @ 2 Bolton, £5.52 @ 1.24 Bristol City, £7.17 @ 2.04 Middlesbrough, £2.78 @ 2.2 Crystal Palace, £2.85 @ 4.5 Fulham, £2.94 @ 1.45 Dover Athletic, £2.38 @ 11 Birmingham, £10.97 @ 3 Norwich, £2.29 @ 1.56 Notts Forest, £3.02 @ 2.38 Everton, £8.21 @ 1.68 Aston Villa, £9.33 @ 2.24 Newcastle, £2.97 @ 1.6 Stoke, £6.88 @ 1.88 Sunderland, £8.03 @ 1.41 Carlisle, £3.17 @ 2.98 09.01.11 Chelsea, £3.84 @ 1.26 Man Utd, £9.53 @ 1.62 Tottenham, £2.38 @ 1.27 Only System B -- 08.01.11 West Brom, £2.34 @ 3.15 Total Staked -- System A: £108.76 System B: £111.10 Possible with current banks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Simon's Value Betting Just a nicer, easier way of presenting the system so far. Looking forward to this weekend - a fair few bets that should test the effectiveness of the system, since it's still far too early to tell - but early signs are promising. Obviously I don't imagine we'll achieve a yield of 100% in the long run, but hopefully it can turn a decent profit - especially given the fairly agressive staking plan I'm using. Anyway, here's the system so far. Credit to Grex (I think) who I've basically copied the table format from one of his old systems I was browsing the other day. System A System B Hmm, seems not to like posting images. Not sure why but it links to them, so that'll have to do for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Simon's Value Betting System A Detailed Table Quick Stats -- Current bank: 137.92, Profit (or Loss): 37.92, Overall Yield: 31.96%, Today's Yield: 11.79%, Total # of bets: 22 System B Detailed Table Quick Stats -- Current bank: 132.49, Profit (or Loss): 32.49, Overall Yield: 26.18%, Today's Yield: 9.05%, Total # of bets: 24 Indications are promising - lots of bets today, positive yield for the day maintaining a good yield for both systems. The form correction seems to be a valid one, as an out of form team can ruin value. The staking plan also seems to be successful - staking more where I believe there's more value, as with a 1pt staking plan the yields drop fairly significantly, (23.83% for System A, 13.51% for System B). Obviously still early doors, but one to keep an eye on here I hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +32% yield, 22 bets Just a quick midweek selection, for both systems: Blackpool vs Liverpool, £4.50 @ 4.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +32% yield, 22 bets Looking good here! Will follow this thread with interest! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +32% yield, 22 bets Hi, SJT..... good start and inspirational selections with Blackburn and Wolves. :clap I assume that you have developed your ratings based on historical league games. My experience is that ratings or "form" go out of the window when it comes to FA Cup matches..... I always avoid cup matches. But, good luck, anyway :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobNL Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +32% yield, 22 bets How do you choose your stake? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +32% yield, 22 bets Looking good here! Will follow this thread with interest! :ok Thanks, still early days but if we can achieve a long-term yield of 10% then I think we could be onto a winner. Hi' date= SJT..... good start and inspirational selections with Blackburn and Wolves. :clap I assume that you have developed your ratings based on historical league games. My experience is that ratings or "form" go out of the window when it comes to FA Cup matches..... I always avoid cup matches. But, good luck, anyway :ok It's based on historical league & cup matches, since I think the cup matches help to get the strength differences between the divisions more accurately when combined with promotions & relegations - otherwise your starting points matter too much. As it is, my ratings were showing there was a lot of value in the cup matches, hence the high number of bets & large stakes, it seems to have paid off today, but when we've got a larger sample size I can see how the system is performing with different types of pick, including homes, aways, and cups, and the two leagues. It is, after all, only a paper trial so I think it's probably best to test it out. Anyway, cheers for the good luck - and credit to you for the table idea, makes it much easier to manage. How do you choose your stake? My ratings will give me a probability of winning, which are 1/Fair Odds. I look at the difference in probability from my ratings and that implied by the bookies odds (after accounting for commission). It's then proportional to the differences in probability between the system & bookies. I'll keep an eye on the staking plan, and also chuck in the 1pt staking plan yield now and again, just so that people can see the difference. Today was a good day, 3 short odds home favourites coming off - more details below. System A Detailed Table Quick Stats -- Current bank: 145.09, Profit (or Loss): 45.09, Overall Yield: 33.55%, Today's Yield: 45.52%, Total # of bets: 25 System B Detailed Table Quick Stats -- Current bank: 139.66, Profit (or Loss): 39.66, Overall Yield: 28.36%, Today's Yield: 45.52%, Total # of bets: 27 EDIT: Oops, I read HT as FT on the BBC Sport site, the Chelsea game hasn't finished - it's now 5-0, and I'll re-update the table when the final whistle blows. Barring an incredible comeback though, nothing should change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +32% yield, 22 bets Whilst I'm here, another midweek selections, so that the midweek bets are as follows. I'll update again if there's any more. 11.01.11 West Ham vs Birmingham - £2.93 @ 3.6 12.01.11 Blackpool vs Liverpool, £4.50 @ 4.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +32% yield, 22 bets GL mate :ok Great start , will follow with interest .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +32% yield, 22 bets GL mate :ok Great start , will follow with interest .. Cheers, hopefully it's not a flukey start, but rather finding true value. We shall see I suppose. Some more selections - shall all be in the table, when I come to update it. Both Systems: 11.01.11 West Ham vs Birmingham - £2.93 @ 3.6 12.01.11 Blackpool vs Liverpool, £4.50 @ 4.1 15.01.11 Chelsea vs Blackburn, £5.05 @ 13.5 West Ham vs Arsenal, £2.82 @ 6.8 Bristol City vs Middlesbrough, £10.58 @ 2.72 Doncaster vs Reading, £2.18 @ 2.66 Leeds vs Scunthorpe, £2.61 @ 6 Swansea vs Crystal Palace, £3.41 @ 6.6 16.01.11 Sunderland vs Newcastle, £2.56 @ 2.26 Tottenham vs Man Utd, £2.69 @ 2.48 System B Only: 15.01.11 Notts Forest vs Portsmouth, £3.22 @ 5.2 Fingers crossed. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Depboy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +33.5% yield, 25 bets Hi SJT Do the odds you're quoting take into account the 5% commission on Betfair? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +33.5% yield, 25 bets Hi SJT Do the odds you're quoting take into account the 5% commission on Betfair? Not when I quote the odds, I quote them as seen on Betfair, but when calculating profit I do take account of the 5% commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +30.7% yield, 26 bets System A Detailed Table Quick Stats -- Current bank: 155.41, Profit (or Loss): 55.41, Overall Yield: 39.07%, Midweek Yield: 138.90%, Total # of bets: 27 System B Detailed Table Quick Stats -- Current bank: 149.98, Profit (or Loss): 49.98, Overall Yield: 33.94%, Midweek Yield: 138.90%, Total # of bets: 29 Thank you Blackpool. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +39.1% yield, 27 bets More selections, meaning weekend selections are as follows. Both Systems: 15.01.11 Chelsea vs Blackburn, £5.05 @ 13.5 West Brom vs Blackpool, £5.63 @ 4.7 West Ham vs Arsenal, £2.82 @ 6.8 Bristol City vs Middlesbrough, £10.58 @ 2.72 Doncaster vs Reading, £2.18 @ 2.66 Leeds vs Scunthorpe, £2.61 @ 6 Swansea vs Crystal Palace, £3.41 @ 6.6 16.01.11 Liverpool vs Everton, £2.25 @ 3.7 Sunderland vs Newcastle, £2.56 @ 2.26 Tottenham vs Man Utd, £2.69 @ 2.48 System B Only: 15.01.11 Notts Forest vs Portsmouth, £3.22 @ 5.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +39.1% yield, 27 bets 6 games in play/played, all teams on both systems backed are losing (or lost), not just drawing. Let's hope for an improvement in the next 30 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +39.1% yield, 27 bets Almost unimaginably, it got worse, with Forest turning it around against Portsmouth, meaning 7/7 losses including System B. Every team backed lost. Impressively bad. I'll do a full update after tomorrow's games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +39.1% yield, 27 bets What an absolute shocker. All 11 games picked on either system failed to come off. I mean, I can accept a bad weekend, but 11/11 losses. That really is a kick in the bollocks. Alas, here are the stats, and some more picks. System A System B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +8.6% yield, 37 bets 2/3 tonight, Stoke ruining it by scoring in the first minute of extra time, rather than the last of normal. Here's both system tables in one image, and the quickstats. Detailed System A Current bank: 114.65, Profit (or Loss): 14.65, Overall Yield: 7.55%, Midweek Yield: -7.84%, Total # of bets: 40 System B Current bank: 106.00, Profit (or Loss): 6.00, Overall Yield: 2.96%, Midweek Yield: -7.84%, Total # of bets: 43 I'll do selections for the weekend on Thursday. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +8.6% yield, 37 bets Don't be disheartened! After all, all systems will have its ups and downs. It's the long term yield that matters, and you are still showing a positive yield after 11 losses. That's quite impressive. Just want to wish you all the best in the coming weeks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +8.6% yield, 37 bets Don't be disheartened! After all, all systems will have its ups and downs. It's the long term yield that matters, and you are still showing a positive yield after 11 losses. That's quite impressive. Just want to wish you all the best in the coming weeks! Heh, thanks for the good luck. Of course all systems have their ups and downs, I had a couple of long odds shots come off early on, and the 11 losses at the weekend, so we'll see. If it's an Arsenal win then the system has shown a small profit on these midweek games, which is promising (though as a Leeds fan I'll be hoping we turn them over - if it's extra-time and Arsenal proceed then that's the worst of the bunch!). I'll check out all the odds and my fair odds after the game, so we'll see what it throws up for the weekend - hopefully a load of winners. It's still very early days and I wouldn't want to draw any conclusions until we've got at least 100 bets concluded, so let's hope it all goes well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +8.6% yield, 37 bets 10 selections on both systems, an additional 5 for system B this weekend, fingers crossed it's not 15/15 losses. :hope http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/7549/screenshot20110121at102.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +8.6% yield, 37 bets Damn, System A is in a slight loss, system B a slight profit. Here's the table updated for the weekend and with midweek selections on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjt91 Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Re: Football Value Betting, +1.5% yield, 59 bets http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/8776/screenshot20110127at154.png Both in a slight loss, some more picks on there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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