Football Value Betting, Defunct, -11% yield

[sjt91]

Firstly hello all, I've been a lurker around these parts for a while and I thought I'd join so that I could try and keep track of this system. There's two systems I'm looking to test here. I have a ranking system calculated in a similar way to Elo Ratings, and shall be using that as a basis for the system, backing where there is value compared to the odds at the bookies. I shall be staking more where I think there is more value in the odds, and less where there is less - so the stakes will vary. System B takes into account the form rating, which is a weighted measure of their actual points versus expected points under the ranking system, basically it measures their form compared to the expectation based on their rankings. For system A I shall be excluding those matches where the team backed has a form rating more than 3 below the opponent. For system B I shan't be using the form rating, only the team rating. So system B contains all the same bets as system A and then more. This is a paper trail, it might not work, it might do. Odds are from Betfair and I shall be deducting the 5% commission. System A Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 100 Total staked: 0.00 Number of bets: 0 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 0 Yield: 0% Profit (or Loss): 0 System B Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 100 Total staked: 0 Number of bets: 0 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 0/0 Yield: 0% Profit (or Loss): 0.00 I'll be using the Premiership & Championship for this, since they are the only ones that I keep form figures for, and the bets shall only be those that show value worth a stake of at least £2, since I'm testing with Betfair odds I should use their rules - you know, do a paper trail as I'd actually be able to bet.

[sjt91]

Re: Simon's Value Betting System A & System B 02.01.11 Aston Villa, £4.63 @ 15.0 03.01.11 Bristol City, £8.33 @ 7.8 04.01.11 Fulham, £2.10 @ 2.26 05.01.11 Blackburn, £8.18 @ 3.7 Only System B 03.01.11 Scunthorpe, £3.09 @ 3.3 Expect a couple more to come in for the 5th, once I have the updated rankings after the matches being played tomorrow.