Flat Racing; 02/01/11

[Lars]

15:05 Southwell Errigal Lad isn’t without a chance in this one, as he seemed to handle the fibresand last time, and although he finished 9^th, it was over a trip that has never really suited him (and he’s never won at it) and I feel that now he’s back to 6f, he could well be overpriced. The selection has a pretty poor strike rate, with only 2 wins from 26 starts. Those were both with Kevin Ryan, and he landed gambles with him on both occasions. The first was in a maiden, but the second victory (in Sep 2008) was off a mark of 76. He’s also placed off a mark of 82 back in 2009, so a mark of 57 he is currently on means he’s dangerously well handicapped. Obviously, there are reasons why he’s down to such a lowly mark, but he has shown some real promise in some recent runs. He finished 2^nd at Yarmouth off a mark of 60 in July, and finished a close up 4^th at Redcar off the same rating. A similar performance today would see him bang there. His one and only try at Southwell came on his last start. It was over 5f, a trip he’s struggled at in the past. He wasn’t helped by the fact he was quite severely hampered after 2f and lost his place fairly significantly. He plodded on and wasn’t stopping at the finish, after looking like he might end up dead last. It was enough to suggest that he does handle Southwell, and doesn’t resent the unique surface. That run was also his first start for three months, so he was entitled to need it. He came in for a little bit of late support on-course, which is another positive. Interestingly, he is ridden by Luke Morris. When this trainer/jockey combination team up, they have a record of 4/12, and a LSP of +£34.58. The yard are in flying form at present, with two wins from his past four runners, and the other two finishing close up 4ths. With a price of 12/1, Errigal Lad seems definitely worth a small bet. He’ll strip fitter after his last run, is back to his ideal trip, and the yard are now in decent form. With a positive jockey booking with Luke Morris, I fancy the chances of this one to be in the frame at the finishing line. Errigal Lad; 1pt EW @ 12/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Primevil]

Re: Flat Racing; 02/01/11 3.40 southwell. Kieltys Folly, (GG 1 ride), 7/1 various firms. This is the greys distance, a must e/way bet, may get an easy time in front, the only 1 problem will be tireing in the final furlong, however the jockey is the best round here for setting fractions, a very cofident e/way bet. And a must for any arb's out there. £200 e/way. 7/1, 4 diffrent places. GL