BBOTD 31/12/10 - Last of 2010!

[jayalexander]

2:30 Lingfield - Silvee Is coming off the back of a win lto and drops 1lb. The filly has the same jockey on board and is a distance winner. One of three lto winners here and let's hope that that form than transfer in handicap company :hope 10/1 win - Bet365 (bog)

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 31/12/10 - Last of 2010! 13:30 Lingfield The drop in trip looks a pretty obvious step for Waabel, especially after not staying the mile trip he’s ran over on his past two starts, and I think the 3lb drop in the weights could make the difference, and he should run a very decent race. Jim Best’s 3yo has been fairly lightly raced, with only three starts outside of Handicap Company. He showed little in maidens until his final start, where he finished 2^nd over 7f at Chepstow. Attempting to make all, he ran a fine race before being collared late on. He was beaten by a horse who is now rated a lofty 86, so it was little surprise that he was given an initial rating of 77. The key piece of form for Waabel lies in a run at Newmarket, in a pretty decent handicap. He finished third, only 4.5l behind the high-class Bullwhip, as well as finishing ahead of decent sorts such as Mark Johnston’s Take Ten. That run was incredibly decent, especially as he went off a fairly lofty 16/1, and looked like he would definitely be able to break his maiden tag sooner or later. He was sent off favourite in his next start, but lost it himself by hanging left pretty severely. Although worrying, he isn’t the first horse in history to dislike Windsor so much, especially as it’s an odd track to say the least, and that run is worth writing off. He was a big price when last seen, this was over a mile here at Lingfield, but he was given an incredibly positive ride, too positive in fact, and his chance was lost. He doesn’t stay a mile, as shown by that run, and the one time he attempted it in maiden company, and I still believe that 7f is his ideal trip. Waabel gets that 7f trip today, and in this small-field, may be able to show his class. The drop in trip from a mile will definitely suit, he gets 7f perfectly. Ian Mongan’s booking is positive, he’s had a bit of success from limited rides with Jim Best. The early market signals are also positive (we unfortunately missed the 16/1), but Jim Best is very shrewd, and now Waabel runs off a mark 3lbs lower than when running at Newmarket, he should be able to produce that form again. Waabel’s tendenacy to hang left will be halted by the fact Lingfield is left-handed. He should handle the polytrack, being out of Green Desert. At 14/1, he still rates a value pick, and if more than 8 runners remain, he should be able to finish in the places quite easily. Waabel; EW @ 14/1 William Hill (bog)