Got the data, now what...

[AndrewKent]

Hi folks, As I am an Excel/VBA app developer for a living, I have been putting together a program that will download games and stats and upload them into an Access database, ready to be analysied in Excel. I've now got something like 11 different betting companies with 1X2 for matches over the last 10 years or so from many major/minor tournaments. I have been experimenting with many different ideas for Backing/Laying matches and have had reasonable success, one of my systems is about 89%-92% accurate although it only has a 2% ROI as the predictions are usually on heavy favourites. I'm looking for a new avenue to attack from. Can anyone suggest what they would consider to be effective calculations? For example, I have recently analyised games by looking at the odds involved, and seeing how the team involved perform when the odds are a certain way then looking at the average for all teams when they play and the odds are a certain way. Then I draw a comparison between the two. A good idea but I feel something is lacking. I have a load of ideas (being a Business Analyst by trade to!) but I have only a few months experience when it comes to looking at football odds. Can anyone make some suggestions about what I could/should be analysing? Again, I am interested in the Lay market on Betfair and my ultimate goal is to put something together that will give me the best chance to succeed when I lay a particular match outcome. Kind regards, Andy

[leftism]

Re: Got the data, now what... I'm a fair newbie here so take anything i say with a pinch of salt. I tried to formulate systems based entirely on present market odds and had limited success. More recently i've began to analyze performance criteria such as matches won, goals scored, shots taken and conceded etc. I've now started using this information to formulate selections and attempt to find value in the market. I'm still in the process of backtesting but so far this seems to be a much better way of attacking things.... Again, don't take my word for it though as i have nowhere near the experience of some on this forum!