AndrewKent Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hi folks, As I am an Excel/VBA app developer for a living, I have been putting together a program that will download games and stats and upload them into an Access database, ready to be analysied in Excel. I've now got something like 11 different betting companies with 1X2 for matches over the last 10 years or so from many major/minor tournaments. I have been experimenting with many different ideas for Backing/Laying matches and have had reasonable success, one of my systems is about 89%-92% accurate although it only has a 2% ROI as the predictions are usually on heavy favourites. I'm looking for a new avenue to attack from. Can anyone suggest what they would consider to be effective calculations? For example, I have recently analyised games by looking at the odds involved, and seeing how the team involved perform when the odds are a certain way then looking at the average for all teams when they play and the odds are a certain way. Then I draw a comparison between the two. A good idea but I feel something is lacking. I have a load of ideas (being a Business Analyst by trade to!) but I have only a few months experience when it comes to looking at football odds. Can anyone make some suggestions about what I could/should be analysing? Again, I am interested in the Lay market on Betfair and my ultimate goal is to put something together that will give me the best chance to succeed when I lay a particular match outcome. Kind regards, Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Re: Got the data, now what... I'm a fair newbie here so take anything i say with a pinch of salt. I tried to formulate systems based entirely on present market odds and had limited success. More recently i've began to analyze performance criteria such as matches won, goals scored, shots taken and conceded etc. I've now started using this information to formulate selections and attempt to find value in the market. I'm still in the process of backtesting but so far this seems to be a much better way of attacking things.... Again, don't take my word for it though as i have nowhere near the experience of some on this forum! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Re: Got the data, now what... Sounds like you and I are in the same boat. Plenty of drive and effort, a little bit of knowledge, but in need of a point in the right direction. I'm a bit of a dab-hand with Excel, so I can usually build the formulas required, but it's knowing what is important that I'm finding a bit of an issue right now. Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Re: Got the data, now what... For example, I have recently analyised games by looking at the odds involved, and seeing how the team involved perform when the odds are a certain way then looking at the average for all teams when they play and the odds are a certain way. Then I draw a comparison between the two. A good idea but I feel something is lacking.What's lacking is that you haven't defined what "team" is. All you are doing is making a comparison between team names, not teams, big difference. Simple example would be a team with a top goalscorer. When there's a game with that player missing can you really say that's the same team as when he is playing ? You're starting out ok but at some point you'll need to dig deeper to come up with anything interesting. First step is to find out what criteria can be measured, (example shots-on-goal). Then the question becomes if that aspect actually makes any difference, (example possesion % yes, colour of socks no) Then you need to formulate how to make a prediction based on the collected data. Good fun. As for using a comparison based on odds, what are you researching, teams performance or workings of betting markets. Odds are not attributes of teams but of betting markets. So if the question is "how do the markets behave given 2 types of teams" you are back to the point of clearly defining "team" and not just going by name. I don't have any answers for you. All i can say is that looking at superficial data like the name of a team and goals scored in last 5 matches alone, isn't it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
layking27 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Re: Got the data, now what... Hi Andrew I have a great system im working on but need to have it all sorted into excel. So far since going live I have made 18 points in 17 days betting. I have all the matches Ive bet on and all the data needed just need somebody like you to make it better with graphs etc. Do you think if I sent you the data you could arrange it so its easily read and has all relevant information? If so I might be willing to let you into what I have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Re: Got the data, now what... Hi Andrew I have a great system im working on but need to have it all sorted into excel. So far since going live I have made 18 points in 17 days betting. I have all the matches Ive bet on and all the data needed just need somebody like you to make it better with graphs etc. Do you think if I sent you the data you could arrange it so its easily read and has all relevant information? If so I might be willing to let you into what I have. Forgive me if I sound like I am being forward but this is exactly what I was looking for. Someone who is working on a system in the same way as I am who I can support with my Excel/VBA background. I think it would be a good idea if we speak more. Please email me on [email protected] and we can discuss things in more detail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
layking27 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Re: Got the data, now what... Sent you an email with my data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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