ROI or strike rate

[leftism]

Hey guys, i'm currently backtesting football lay system which over the past 5 seasons shows good profitability year on year. I'm trying to tweak my odds criteria for selection and have a question... Is it better to reduce my odds range down to say less than 6, which reduces my strike rate, and reduces my number of bets BUT increases my ROI overall? Alternatively i can increase my odds range to an acceptable limit of say 11, which increases my strike rate, increases my overall number of bets, increases my overall profits (since the rate at which i chuck money into the system increases), but my ROI is reduced... Any thoughts???? P.S- I shall be most likely sticking up a separate thread with the system picks once i get the odds criteria nailed down.

[clay747]

Re: ROI or strike rate I would go for the higher ROI and work out a staking plan to maximise the profits. If you lower your ROI in favour of more bets, you will increase the variance in your results, so your stake per bet will have to be lower or your risk of ruin will increase.