Jump Racing 29th Nov

[Aidymac]

FOLKESTONE 3:10 Whataboutya - Very inconsistent horse and not a horse i want to be backing, regardless of McCoy riding or not. Ran a game race in a close 3rd last time out. It does have a few positives however. The chase course is forecast good ground tomorrow. Its form on good ground is 4-2-1-2-1-2-8-F-6 so it has a 55% place S/R on good ground which is a fair return. It was 2nd off a mark of 122 in the past and tomorrow runs off a mark of 115 so it is well handicapped if putting its best foot forward. Interestingly it has a horrendous record when McCoy rides the horse, he has rode it 6 times and has never been in the top 3. The trip should be no problem but all in all too many negatives so i will not be backing this horse. Canni Thinkaar - Course winner here 2 times and i watched this horse run an incredible race last time out here at Folkestone, where it ran probably a personal best coming 2nd to Ravethebrave, only losing out by a length @ 80/1. Personally i will be shocked if this horse can win tomorrow as it has far too much weight on its back, running off a mark of 113, its highest mark ever. Its best win was off a mark of 100 so has 13 pounds to find. The good ground so be fine as it is diverse in that regard. Because of the handicap mark alone, no point continuing on with this horse as it to me has no chance. Ammunition - Interesting horse here. The Twiston-Davies team have been in scintillating form of late and they are extremely good at getting the best out of a horse that is out of form, here is an example. Had not had a win since 2007 and then out of nowhere, BANG, 2 wins from 2 this season. Its record at Folkestone is not too inspiring, 7-U-8 but it has come on leaps and bounds since then. Its last 2 runs on good going has produced a 1st and a 2nd which s encouraging. Out of Paddy Brennans last 10 rides at Folkestone, it has produced 3 wins and 3 places which is a 60% place S/R and is impressive. Its up 5 pounds tomorrow , it will have to improve again but i feel it has a decent chance of making its presence felt. Reblis - Again a horse that has to be of interest as it does better chasing than over hurdles. The negative is that it has had 11 runs and has yet to get its head in front but it is still relatively unexposed and is only a 5 year old, plenty of room for improvement unlike some of the other horses in the race. Its dropped a further 2 pounds from its 2nd last time out. It has only run on good ground once so it is a hard horse to assess but it was beat in a lower grade with only 5 runners last time out , beaten 12 lengths at that so i feel myself this horse has a bit to prove at the moment. Jamie Moore has not had a winner at Folkestone in 10 rides and Gary Moore has not had a winner here in 17 runs so for me this horse would be opposable. Dunkelly Castle - Gutsy horse this fella, loves a battle. Is still relatively unexposed and won off a mark of 105 at Worcester over 2m-7f in October. Was then raised to 110 and that found him out. Runs off the same mark tomorrow so the handicapper has not been very generous to this horse and it is hard to see it overcome this mark. Is diverse with regards the ground but for win purposes tomorrow i would find it hard to back this animal. Interestingly when Hadden Frost has rode this horse, his record reads 2-2-3-1 so that is a positive. Frost has not had a winner in 14 rides and Rebecca Curtis has not had a winner in 19 runs. Overall it is opposable. Folie A Deux - Hmm Hmm Hmm.. An awful step up in trip for this horse, normally operates at the shortest trip up to 2m-4f, im thinking surely 3 miles 1 is a bit too far, a bit of an experiment by the stable i would think? Its form when stepped up in trip above 2m-4f reads 6-P-F-4 so hard to be confident about its chances tomorrow, has it suddenly possessed stamina at home? I dont think so.. I could not build up the courage to back this horse on the basis it has never shown that it can stay past 2m-4f, so i will not be backing this horse. Antonius Caeser - Dodgy horse this, seems to be a very inconsistent horse and one to thread carefully with. BUT it is on a very leniant mark. This horse won over 3m at Carlisle off a mark of 120 and tomorrow runs off a mark of 107, 13 pounds better off tomorrow. Has a very patchy record so the current form of the jockey and trainer will determine whether this horse will be a shorter or a larger tissue price for me. Peter Toole is in fine form, having 3 wins and 2 places from his past 10 rides, a 50% place record. Hales has had the odd winner here and there. Hard one for me to make my mind up on but overall this horse must enter my calculations. Pacco - Another interesting horse tomorrow. It wore blinkers for the first time a week ago and it won at Towcester, winning by 13 lengths. However all of its wins have come on either soft or heavy ground so tomorrows forecast good ground will have to add a notch or 2 onto the price for me. Is still well handicapped even with the handicap. Won off 107 previously and only runs off 106 tomorrow. Also Oliver Sherwood has on 6 of his last 16 visits to Folkestone which is impressive. Ballyoliver - Venetia has been in decent form of late and this is the exact type of horse she would be likely to improve. Its an Irish winning pointer and has shown limited appeal thus far. All i ca judge this horse by is the trainers current form. The yard is in ok form, nothing special. Overall this horse needs to show a lot more before i could back it with confidence. Alteranthela - Not had too many runs but runs off a fair mark tomorrow, it was running ok off marks of 109 last year and runs off 101 tomorrow so if it has improved at home since it could well figure. Trainer form would have to be vital again here but Rowe doesnt have anything much of late to be too cheery about so this will have to be an outsider. Quartz Du Montceau - The only time this horse wore cheekpieces it won which is an interesting little thing to keep in mind here. It won over 3m-2f at Plumpton last March with them on, winning from the front. That was off a mark of 86 though and has to cope with a mark of 95 tomorrow and that was also on heavy ground. It has never been placed on good ground and that is a negative. Felix De Giles does reasonably well at Folkestone though and the trainer is in decent form with 2 wins in her last 5 runners and 2 winners from her last 8 at Folkestone so i would not be surprised to see this horse run very well tomorrow. My Tissue Prices Based On Personal Forecast Winning Percentages: Ammunition 9/2, Antonius Caeser 6/1, Pacco 15/2, Quartz Du Montceau 10/1, Whataboutya 10/1, Reblis 16/1, Dunkelly Castle 20/1, Alteranthela 25/1, Ballyoliver 25/1, Folie A Deux 40/1, Canni Thinkaar 100/1 Actual Prices: Pacco 3/1, Ammunition 11/2, Antonius Caeser 6/1, Dunkelly Castle 7/1, Whataboutya 8/1, Reblis 9/1, Ballyoliver 10/1, Folie A Deux 10/1, Quartz Du Montceau 16/1, Canni Thinkaar 16/1, Alteranthela 16/1. So after all my analysis, in my opinion i have found 2 horses that represent value to me. Ammunition and Quartz Du Montceau both represent value to me, Ammunition is 2 points bigger than my forecast and Quartz Du Montceau is 3 points bigger than my forecast. So for this reason i will be backing Quartz Du Montceau e/w with a saver on Ammunition. Quartz Du Montceau - 0.5 Points e/w @ 16/1 (PaddyPower) BOG :rollin:rollin

[Spooner]

Jump Racing 29th Nov Folkestone 12:55 - American Trilogy @13/8 Sportingbet If Paul Nicholls' runner takes to fences as he did hurdles then he should be good enough to win this, was off the track for a while and then fell LTO which doesn't make great reading but confident to stick him in over fences. Top jockey on board in AP McCoy and if showing form from 2009 should get off the mark on chasing debut.