Flat Racing 18th Nov

[chris34]

4.10 Wolverhampton Tregoning appears in good form at the moment with no wins but all horses have been placed including my interest in this race Homeboy who ran his best race to date last time out when running on well, winner looks a small blot on handicapper but failed to quite repeat antics at southwell but perhaps found that coming too soon. Anyhow Homeboy came from the worst draw last time out but today has the best draw and is clearly on a good mark even up though up 3lb for latest effort is clearly unexposed and open to a little more! 0.5pt e/w Homeboy 6/1 bet365 4.40 Wolverhampton Grand Stitch has finally found some form having been fitted with visor, step up to 7f and switch to AW and all appears to have clicked into place. Winning last 2 times out and was an easy winner last time out and a 6lb rise shouldnt be a problem from a good draw again and same jockey on board. 1pt win Grand Stitch 7/2 hills 7.10 Wolverhampton Slickback Jack is surely better than he showed last time he ran an awful race and needs to bounce back but prior to that he had been running well and on penultimate start he was staying on at the death over an inadequate 7f, and prior to that ran a solid 2nd over this extended mile trip. Nicholls taken over the running of the yard and its interesting they drop him back in a 3yr old only handicap (has been racing against elders since june) and well drawn again. 1pt win Slickback Jack 9/2 hills

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing 18th Nov 16:10 Wolverhampton Another selection that could be regarded as "speculative", but slightly more confident with this one. Safe Haven gets into this race off a super-low weight and could run into a place or better over what I regard as her optimum trip in this 2yo, 6f nursery. Has had four runs to date. The most promise coming on her first start at Chester over 5f. That day she became unbalanced on the testing track, understandable as it was her first start but she stayed on nicely towards the end, indicating that she would be needing further. She also was subject to a couple of big bets that day (although she was easy to back on course) and that may be of some interest. She was then been upped to 7f on her next three starts. She has been well-beaten on all three of those occasions. However, she showed (to me at least) a bit of promise on her last start at Wolverhampton. She was slightly held-up that day (indicating connections didn't think she would stay). She despised this, refusing to settle for the early part of the race. When she did settle, she made nice looking headway round the inside of the bend and looked a danger, before fading and eventually being eased. It could be that she just doesn't get home over 7f, and from her running-style, that definitely seems to be the case. This 6f trip should be ideal. I believe that Safe Haven may have gotten in this race quite lightly off a mark of 52, she runs off 7st12, 8lbs less than her closest rival in the weights. This super-low weight can only be seen as a positive, especially as she's only a small filly. David Probert's booking is another positive, as he's probably the best rider to have at that light weight. Alan Bailey is also in fine form, the last two horses he's saddled have won, and he only brings this one to Wolverhampton today. Safe Haven does have a bit to prove, but the low-weight, positive jockey booking with a trainer in form, and a trip that should be ideal, as well as a decent enough draw, should lead to a bold effort. I can definitely see her going close, especially at what's likely to be a big price. Safe Haven; 1.5pts EW @ 33/1 Bet365 (bog) --------------------------- 18:10 Wolverhampton Paul Howling's Melbury ran an absolute stinker last time over course and distance but that wasn't her true-running, and if getting back to something like the form of her third run in maiden company, she could play a big role in this 7f nursery. Raced four times in her career, all on the all-weather. She shaped with promise on her first start at Kempton, staying on dourly from the back of the field over a trip that was never going to suit her. She followed that up with two nice efforts over 6f at Wolverhampton, and on both occasions made eye-catching progress from the rear, and was never too far away from the eventual winner. Her third start was her best performance, after being outpaced down the back straight, she caught up well and was only 3.5l away at the end. Assigned a mark of 63 for her first run in a nursery, and ran no sort of race at all. She never travelled and I'm willing to write that off. It was perhaps due to a more positive ride that she faded so tamely, rather than her not actually being that good. Has now dropped 5lbs in the weights and looks an attractive prospect off 58, especially from her maiden efforts. This race is only a 0-60 affair, so much less competitive than the contest she last ran in. Hopefully, she'll be held up near the rear this time and come with a late run. I think this is her ideal way to be raced, and the yard will have learnt that from her nursery debut. Melbury does come with question marks attached, but if back to something like her best, she could win this sort of contest quite easily. Trainer's charges aren't winning but have been going quite close recently, which is a decent sign. This one's likely to be overpriced on the form of her last effort, and she's definitely worth a punt! Melbury; 1pt EW @ 16/1 Bet365 (bog)