Simple way to find Value

[Mulkis]

Hi everyone! This is my approach to finding "true odds" and finding "value bids" (tennis in this case): 1) I take decent amount of historical data with fixed odds indicated (2 years, over 5000 matches); 2) DCOUNT how many games within a specific range of odds are played (+-0.1 decimal odds value); 3) MatchesWon_at_Odds / TotalMatches_at_Odds = Probability of Favorit Win; 4) 100/Probability of Favorit Win = TRUE ODDS (0% profit). Next step is to place a back bid with better then TrueOdds in the exchange and wait it to be matched (and its almost 100% it will be matched due to in-play volatility). Hm... Looks too simple to be true, right? Then what's wrong with this approach? Your comments will be much appreciated!

[Lardonio]

Re: Simple way to find Value Toss it in the oven and see if it bakes...