Flat Racing 11th Nov

[chris34]

12.50 Southwell Handicap that lacks much depth in recent form or even course form, Arbiter is an interesting runner from Ireland yard yet to have a runner at southwell but has had a winner at wolverhampton. He was a good 3rd in a big field handicap at the curragh on yielding ground off this mark on penultimate start so should appreciate fibresand and hopes rest on a switch of surface to bounce back from a disappointing effort at Navan last time out, drops back to 7f today and Catlin gets the legup and rides very well round here. 0.25pt e/w Arbiter 1.20 Southwell Norcroft looks to be a big prices currently on the exchanges probably because he is from an unfashionable yard but a yard that isnt afraid of big price winners! He was an eye catching 3rd or as eye catching as a 45 rated horse can be!! Racing fairly wide in the rear which is often a massive disadvantages around here, he came from a bad draw and stayed on, should appreciate this step up in trip again and also better drawn today. Has won on fibresand off a mark of 62 that was nearly 2 years ago now but so well handicapped could be dangerous to dismiss in this company off bottom weight! 0.5pt e/w Norcroft 2.50 Southwel Colorus is a horse that seems a good horse for apprentices to get on board and get to know and often strikes up good partnerships and appears to be doing that at the moment with this young apprentice finishing a very promising 3rd last week over CD when carrying 1lb overweight and also 3lb out of the handicap so effectively 4lb better off today drawn low again today and looks the one they all have to beat with the horses fantastic record around here aswell! 1pt win Colorus 5/1 bet365 5.20 Wolverhampton A fantastic looking handicap on paper and sure to provide a thriller and gonna bet a little different than I would normally might live to regret that later! My lay will be Valid Reason a horse that should appreciate the step up in trip but never looks too willing to go on sometimes and just shapes as if he is just held by the handicapper at the moment. Beggars Opera is my win bet, unlucky to bump into a well handicap but green horse of Johnstons last time out and rythm was upset plenty of times thanks to that horses wayward ways and should be able to gain compensation tonight off the same mark My other bet in this race is a place bet on betfair for Satwa Gold, appeared as tho amiss last time out not beatin a rival home on turf, prior to that won over a longer trip at kempton off just a 1lb lower mark, has a good record on the AW 5 wins and 5 placed efforts from 15 runs and could very easily bounce back on a feasible mark. 1pt win Beggars Opera 5/2 bet365 1pt Place bet Satwa Gold

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing 11th Nov 17:50 Wolverhampton To me, Spying looks very well handicapped on this mark of 82, and he's shown enough on his recent starts to suggest his 2yo ability is still there, and I think in this sort of race, at a double-figure price, he's worth a nice bet. 3yo gelding, who won his first two starts as a 2yo over this trip, in maiden company and then in a novice race. He won both of these races incredibly easily. Made the step up to high-class sales races next, and ran a creditable effort then, on his last 2yo start. 3yo handicap debut was off 91 on turf and he finished third, a decent enough performance on his seasonal return, and a similar run today would see him go close. Stayed on nicely at the end of that race, which probably prompted connections to look a running him at longer distances, firstly over a mile at Kempton (his only AW start). He never seemed to get into the race, being forced wide and was off the bridle quite early, plucked along at the one-pace towards the end and maybe that was a little far for him. They went an absolute dawdle, which caused him to take a keen hold and that wouldn't have done him much good. Upping to 1m2f was far too far for him and he never stood a chance of staying. His last run, at Nottingham, was a nice performance. Got a poor start, but made eyecatching headway around 2.5f out, but just had no extra to be a challenger within the final furlong. He was also very keen early on and it didn't help his chances one bit. That run was also in open-age company, and the reversion to racing against 3yo will also slightly help his chances. The drop in trip will help for plenty of reasons. Firstly, he's won at it twice and his best run in handicap company came over 7f earlier this season, off a mark 9lbs higher than he runs off today. The faster pace will help him to settle and he's less likely to be keen early on. Thirdly, he doesn't seem to stay a mile, and this looks on all counts, to be his ideal trip. Maybe a question mark about his AW record, it being 0/1 and that run at Kempton wasn't the best. However, that was off 8lbs higher in the weights and in a much better race, at what seems an unsuitable trip. His half-brother won on the all-weather and a couple of close relatives have placed on it so there shouldn't be too many issues. He was heavily backed on-course last time out, so I wouldn't discount that happening again. Early signs on Betfair are positive, too. For these reasons, I quite like the chances of Spying to get his 3yo season going. Off this sort of mark, for a yard that has had a few winners in the past couple of weeks, I'd rate this one to have a decent chance of going close, and worth a nice bet! 1.5pt EW @ 12/1 Bet365 (B0G)