Jump Racing ~ Wed 3rd Nov

[mileni4uk]

I don't remember lower rated horse than this. Queenstown Lad has a mark of 28 in the 4.25 at Chepstow :loon

[Lars]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Wed 3rd Nov Warwick 14:00 8 runners line up for this handicap chase, and I think there is plenty of potential for Bobby Donald to be decent at this 2 mile trip and he seems to be the best alternative to the likely principles in the market. Has never won under rules but has placed on four occasions, mostly at 2m4f, but once at 2 miles. What is interesting is that when he runs at this minimum trip, he runs fairly well, with only one dud run. Never run at a trip this sharp over fences but I think it will suit, having always has shown good speed throughout his career, but always fading towards the end of a contest. Never seems to stay a truly run 2m4f race or any 3mile affair, which can explain why he was pulled up when last seen back in April. A lot better than that performance suggests and could improve with the summer absence, having done so on his seasonal re-appearance back in 2009. Bobby Donald is also a full-brother to multiple winners at this sort of trip, so I’m surprised they haven’t tried him at this distance more often. Versatile on all ground, so the better ground shouldn’t really be a problem for him. He usually jumps well and especially when going a decent clip, ideal for today’s race. Trainer had a place yesterday so he could be coming into some form. The other runners in the race, include That’s the Deal, who ran well when last seen only a week ago. Was a decent effort that day but looked a little like he might need a bit further, and I’m not sure this 2mile trip will be his most suitable. Definitely one of the main contenders, mind. Corredor Sun represents powerful connections, didn’t stay last time and this trip should more up his street. However, his jumping can often let him down, especially over fences, and perhaps it’s best to avoid until some of these weaknesses are ironed out. Red Jester won this last year, but has been off the boil recently. Will need to bounce back from a series of poor efforts and he may be in the grip of the handicapper at present. For me, Bobby Donald represents the best price, likely to be around 9/1, and especially if the dead eight remain, I’m quite confident he can run a decent race, at least grabbing a place but I wouldn’t discount him gaining a victory, especially with a field where plenty have questions to answer too. Bobby Donald; EW @ 11/1 Stan James —————– 16:15 Warwick Maybe a bit risky playing in bumpers when all have little or no form to go on, but on pedigree, Dani has a decent chance and is well worth a small investment. Related to two staying winners on the flat, as well as three winners over jumps, she definitely has the pedigree to be a decent horse. From pedigree, should be competitive even though she’s only 4, as she is related to staying flat winners who won at around this age. Certainly got a more eye-catching pedigree than some of the others in this race, and I think her chances will be under-estimated in the betting market, at least early morning. Her forecast price is 20/1 and she’ll probably go off shorter than that. Trainer knows how to train a bumper winner, although he’s 0/4 this season, he was 1/6 in 2009/10. Although not having the best win ratio in the past five seasons, he’s got a just under 20% record of horses placing in bumpers which isn’t abhorrent. This filly can go well today at a big price, and if not, she’ll most likely be one to look out for over the winter. Dani; EW @ 25/1 Victor Chandler (BOG)