Flat Racing 28th Oct

[chris34]

2.40 Lingfield Quick Wit is sure to prove popular and is already short enough in current market but gives a great opportunity for an ew bet and Autumn Blades is a horse that will owe me very little after his fantastic winter record last year, he improved out of recognition under Probert most of the time and was especially effective around lingfield coming off the sweeping bend. He returns to his favourite track on his last winning mark (which was around chester early season) and ran a solid race when last seen around here in April off a 2lb higher mark, has a good draw in stall 3 and the booking of Hughes looks really interesting. 0.5pt e/w Autumn Blades 14/1 vc 4.10 Lingfield Quite an uninspiring lineup to be honest for this handicap which could give Basra a good chance to get back to winning ways, better than bare result last time out in a typical lingfield bunch finish and that for m has taken several boosts with the horse behind him running a solid enough race next tme out on turf and horses infront 2 have gone on to win and 2 have finished placed next time out, dropped another 2lb in the handicap and is starting to look very well handicapped, was 2nd off a 6lb higher mark in december last year and is 7lb below last winning mark! 0.5pt e/w Basra

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing 28th Oct 14:40 Lingfield I rate the chances of Santefisio to get very close to the Godolphin favourite and think he could well get turned over tomorrow. My selection comes from the Peter Makin yard, and this 4yo gelding has won three times in his career, twice over today’s trip over 7f. Has raced at this trip throughout the majority of his career, especially after winning a Newbury maiden last year. Has won over this Course and Distance on his only try here, against a type who is now rated 103. Although it would be plain wrong to compare the two now, it does show that it was a decent performance that day. Has had five runs in the 2010 season, finishing second twice (both at Goodwood) and one occasion he just failed to get up in time. Has been off the boil a little bit since then, with two sub-par performances in Newmarket handicaps. Those were pretty hot races (better than the one he contests in today) and perhaps the softer ground he was running on wasn’t to suit… However, he wasn’t hugely disgraced in them and he should be fit and well for today’s run. Santefisio does have an outside draw which is a negative at Lingfield… but importantly he is always held up at the rear, so as long as he breaks on terms, then he should be able to be positioned towards the back of the field with the potential to make a late run. The switch back to an artifical surface is also a huge positive. He’s 1/1 at Lingfield, and he’s related to all-weather winners, so there should be some progression still to come on this ground. Opposing the favourite, Quick Wit may be seen as dangerous, as he was such an easy winner on his handicap debut over 1m, cruising clear 2f out and then heavily eased down. He was raised a huge 11lb for that. He’s drawn wider than my selection is today and that might hinder any front-running ambitions he may have. Trip should suit but with the extra weight to carry, a more competitive race, and the short price on offer, I’m willing to oppose him today. Flipando has never won over 7f which is a concern, will like the surface back on the all-weather but he may struggle at this trip today. Elna Bright will have to bounce back from a very poor run, but is another who likes the surface. She may just be in the grip of the handicapper at the moment. Something that may also be said to Autumn Blades who is consistent, but I feel needs to be dropped a couple of lbs in the handicap. For me, the only negative for Santefisio is the draw, as long as he doesn’t dwell at the start, he should be able to be held up towards the rear, and get a nice pace before making a late run. Jimmy Fortune booked is a positive for me, having won on him before and I’m expecting a big effort. Santefisio; EW @14/1 Stan James (BOG)