Have I found value if?

[uknowsit]

Hi all, I recently purchased an archive of computer predicted scores which also compare to the ACTUAL scores of the games. the games cover a wide range of leagues, for the past 10 seasons. I've been looking at the data and thinking about how value can be found. If for instance I select all games that were predicted to be 1-1 from the EPL. If history shows that from 2279 projected 1-1 Full time scorelines, the score at half time was 0-0 in 771 of those games (33.85%). Does that mean for any future 1-1 predicted game, odds of 2.95 or above is a value selection? Unfortunately I have no way to back test this theory so thought I'd ask how well (or not) I have grasped the concept of value. Perhaps I could start a system based on this if people have any comments or feedback first :ok

[slapdash]

Re: Have I found value if?

If history shows that from 2279 projected 1-1 Full time scorelines, the score at half time was 0-0 in 771 of those games (33.85%).

Do you mean the score at full time was 1-1 in 771 of the games? Otherwise I don't see what this tells you about the value of backing 1-1.

Does that mean for any future 1-1 predicted game, odds of 2.95 or above is a value selection?

Not necessarily. Even assuming that the 2279 games are representative, it is still likely that those games were more likely to end 1-1 when the odds offered on 1-1 were lower. So if you're betting only on the games where the computer projects a 1-1 scoreline and the odds offered are 2.95 or above, then you will probably have a long term strike rate less than 33.85%.

[Lardonio]

Re: Have I found value if? What you are doing is called data mining, which is the process of extracting patterns from data. Unfortunately data mining only says something certain about the past, and nothing certain about the future. Only the future will give indications if you have value or not. Don't worry though, data mining is an extremely common way of trying to find value in betting, and sometimes it even succeeds.

[uknowsit]

Re: Have I found value if?

Do you mean the score at full time was 1-1 in 771 of the games? Otherwise I don't see what this tells you about the value of backing 1-1.

No, the score at half time was 0-0 (I was just using that as an example) Not necessarily. Even assuming that the 2279 games are representative, it is still likely that those games were more likely to end 1-1 when the odds offered on 1-1 were lower. So if you're betting only on the games where the computer projects a 1-1 scoreline and the odds offered are 2.95 or above, then you will probably have a long term strike rate less than 33.85%. Ok understand, and thats what I sort of thought maybe the case.

[uknowsit]

Re: Have I found value if?

What you are doing is called data mining, which is the process of extracting patterns from data. Unfortunately data mining only says something certain about the past, and nothing certain about the future. Only the future will give indications if you have value or not. Don't worry though, data mining is an extremely common way of trying to find value in betting, and sometimes it even succeeds.

Data mining eh? Not heard that term before but I like it. :ok Thanks for your thoughts. I guess i'll have to paper trade just to see how it goes

[Gingertipster]

Re: Have I found value if?

Unfortunately data mining only says something certain about the past' date=' and nothing certain about the future. Only the future will give indications if you have value or not.[/quote'] Exactly Lardonio, The past only takes in to account certain circumstances, it can NEVER take in to account everything. There are different players in present/future games than past, in different form, different managers, different formations, different confidence etc. So it is virtually impossible for a system's past strike rate to remain the same. Therefore, impossible to know if the past percentage is an accurate guide to present value.