Have I found value if?

[uknowsit]

Hi all, I recently purchased an archive of computer predicted scores which also compare to the ACTUAL scores of the games. the games cover a wide range of leagues, for the past 10 seasons. I've been looking at the data and thinking about how value can be found. If for instance I select all games that were predicted to be 1-1 from the EPL. If history shows that from 2279 projected 1-1 Full time scorelines, the score at half time was 0-0 in 771 of those games (33.85%). Does that mean for any future 1-1 predicted game, odds of 2.95 or above is a value selection? Unfortunately I have no way to back test this theory so thought I'd ask how well (or not) I have grasped the concept of value. Perhaps I could start a system based on this if people have any comments or feedback first :ok

[slapdash]

Re: Have I found value if?

If history shows that from 2279 projected 1-1 Full time scorelines, the score at half time was 0-0 in 771 of those games (33.85%).

Do you mean the score at full time was 1-1 in 771 of the games? Otherwise I don't see what this tells you about the value of backing 1-1.

Does that mean for any future 1-1 predicted game, odds of 2.95 or above is a value selection?

Not necessarily. Even assuming that the 2279 games are representative, it is still likely that those games were more likely to end 1-1 when the odds offered on 1-1 were lower. So if you're betting only on the games where the computer projects a 1-1 scoreline and the odds offered are 2.95 or above, then you will probably have a long term strike rate less than 33.85%.