Jump Racing - Sunday 24th Oct

[Lars]

16:15 Towcester I'm a big fan of the Chris Bealby yard, and although he brings five horses to Towcester tomorrow, the one who really sticks out to me is Quintus in this Novice Handicap Chase over 2m. French import who has struggled in the UK since winning twice across the Channel. Showed virtually no form whatsoever in the 08/09 NH season over hurdles. Given an year and a half off, and made his return 11 days ago for his debut chasing, that over a huge 3mile trip. Even though that seemed a bit far for him, he bowled on very happily in front, jumping well and showing good speed, until making an absolute hash of a fence and unseating his rider. Quintus jumping was almost faultless until then, so I'm willing to give him another chance today over this shorter trip. I doubt he'll be sent to the front like last time but should be settled just off the pace. He has the speed to be decent at this trip and the pedigree to be decent at this level, as he's related to a 2 mile chase winner in France. A mark of 90 could turn out to be very lenient for a horse with scope for improvement at fences, and for a yard that does well with these sorts of types, he can do well. He should also strip fitter after his last run, especially coming back from such a big absence. Of the competition, the likely favourite is the National Heritage, who I think is mediocre at best, and may have found his level. His last run over hurdles was solid, but nothing spectacular and I'm not sure the visor will help it too much. Cloonavery is also one with a decent chance on the forecasted prices, but I think he's slightly exposed now, and although he's consistent, I think he may just have place claims. Most of the others have shown little over hurdles and now try chases. The main difference these have with Quintus as he is proven that he can handle these fences, and went well last time before making a mistake. Hopefully this won't happen again. For a yard who do well with these types and seem to be running into some form, with a decent chase pedigree, and likely to have the speed to be better than this level. At a quite big price of 6/1ish. I'm willing to give this one a go. Trainer on his blog says Quintus has been jumping well at home since his mishap so that's another bit of confident news. Fairly confident of a return on this bet. EW @ ??? - Price to be supplied tomorrow

[Lars]

Re: Jump Racing - Sunday 24th Oct 15:20 Aintree A tough race this one, but I think the unexposed nature and the quite lenient mark of Moorlands Teri may give her the best chance of winning today. This Tim Vaughan trained mare has a fantastic strike rate in all races of 4/9. Two of those victories coming in bumpers on testing ground, and two in novice hurdles. Both her hurdle victories have come over this kind of trip so that's a big positive, as she'll definitely stay. I think a mark of 120, especially after her victory over 3miles on soft ground at Exeter is pretty lenient. She travelled beautifully all race before a few slight urgings, and she was soon clear. Eased down and could have won by more than the 5 length margin. A similar performance today, in this competitive handicap, with natural improvement of a horse her age, she can go very very close. Her next run was over an inadequate distance of 2m4f, and although she travelled well, couldn't quicken immediately. It may have come too soon for her, as it was only a week after he last run. She stayed on quite well regardless and so proved that 3m was her trip. Moorlands Teri is very adaptable ground wise, but 3/4 victories have come on ground that is softer than standard, and that is what she'll get today. Even if it does dry up, she has winning form on quicker ground so it should not be too much of a problem. Tim Vaughan does quite well here with limited runners at the track, with a record of 2/9 in the past three seasons, and when he teams up with Richard Johnson, they have a 1/2 record. So that bodes quite well. This is a tough race, and perhaps the likes of Cross Kennon may be able to saddle the big weights in comparison to my pick and run very well, and Solway Sam may be able to prove that his first handicap mark is lenient. I do think that Moorlands Teri is the most unexposed, with a fairly light weight to carry (a whole stone less than quite a few of the principle market rivals), and at a fairly decent price, I'm willing to give this one a go. EW @ 8/1 Paddy Power BOG