Super Soccer System

[Sir ratholer]

I've devised a system which predicts the percentage chances of each outcome of a soccer match. It's quite complex, and completely statistically based, with the exception of team news. Various factors are taken into account, including previous bookmaker prices for games involving teams of similar abilities, Kevin Pullein's ratings, form, home/away record, draw percentages, points per game, and league home/away/draw percentages, as well as several other factors. Such detailed analysis allows me to find discrepancies in offered odds. I find that a fair few games are priced incorrectly - for example a team shows throughout analysis it has a 55-60% chance based on all the factors, yet they are priced up at evens or even a touch above this, which is clear value. For a bet to be viable, it has to have a 12.5% increase on my calculated odds, which builds in a profit margin. So my system calculates a team to have a 50% chance of winning (i.e. odds of 2.0), it needs to be a price of 2.25 to be a viable bet. Only leagues where a minimum of 12 matches per team played will be considered, as the stats are more unreliable before this. In the future, I will be posting my bets on here and offering tips before the matches are played. My bets will typically be placed on Betfair, largely because the odds are better and I'd rather have one account with my bankroll in than spread across loads of bookmakers. All prices stated will be current Betfair odds unless stated. I've paper tested the system so far and have a 24.63% return on investment over about 50 matches. It's hard to find matches early in the season as few leagues have enough matches played to have meaningful statistics. But this should change from now on. I've mainly concentrated on Finnish, Brazilian, Japanese, Swedish and Irish Leagues so far as they have the required matches completed. Anyway, enough for now, I'll post some tips for today shortly.

[Sir ratholer]

Re: Super Soccer System Championship Bets Today:- Coventry @ 2.04 Norwich @ 2.02 Watford @ 1.71 Burnley @ 2.00 Derby @ 3.55