Adjusted double-poisson football, betting on value

[v-zero]

I've been working on a statistically based formula for working out the probabilities of football matches after six games in a season have passed. I will be placing flat bets on the best value propositions each week per game. If a game contains no value, then there will be no bets, however most games do contain a value bet... This week's premiership probabilities: Following these probabilities I have placed one point, which is £5 with my current bank, bet on each of the following: Arsenal @ 1.32 Bolton @ 2.28 Fulham@ 3.05 Man Utd @ 1.29 Newcastle @ 1.88 Wolves @ 2.32 Chelsea @ 1.74 Everton @ 2.5 Blackpool and Man City to Draw @ 4.2 Blackburn and Sunderland to Draw @ 3.35 Other than testing with these bets, I will also be looking closely at how the results each week pan out. As far as favourite results to occur by my probabilities there should be five home wins, three away wins and two draws this weekend. I hope this will interest at least somebody, and it should help me consider the value of my work. Cheers! :cheers EDIT: If anybody is interested in probabilities for other leagues, I can adapt the system to them.

[Lardonio]

Re: Adjusted double-poisson football, betting on value Good luck. I can't fail to notice that you've picked 80% home wins and 20% draws, which could suggest that your system is a bit biased towards home wins, which goal-based systems often are. So far we've had 48,6% home wins, 27,4% draws and 24% away wins in Premier League. Of course that does not mean you can't make a profit on your selections. Good luck!