Cycling - Paris Tours (Oct 10)

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Romain Feillu @ 29 Australian Sportingbet (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) Feillu has shown some decent form with a 10th at the worlds and a 2nd mid week in Paris-Bourges. He has made this race a target and I think his motivation and form make this a smart play. A lot of big names (Farrar, Cavendish, Pettachi, Grepiel, Goss etc) are missing and the majority of name sprinters here are horribly out of form (McEwen, Freire, Bennati, Boonen). None of those guys just mentioned are on their game right now whilst the Frenchman clearly is. Gilbert is obviously in superb form and has won this race the past two years but he is not a sprinter so if he can't get away in the final kilometers then he's not taking home the prize. Breschel likewise is in good form but I feel that a mass sprint is a 50-50 probability here and that Feillu is in strong form and has a fantastic chance to win. Nice odds about the place here also, so if he can't quite make it we're still in the frame for a pay. Also please note that this is with Australian Sportingbet, not UK Sportingbet. I'd refrain from using the latter right now as I've found their recent conduct to be quite suspicious and dishonest.

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Re: Cycling - Paris Tours (Oct 10) Peter Sagan @ 41 Paddy Power Whilst I do think the sprint finish has a good chance, it would be foolish to rule out a late break taking the win. Gilbert is definitely the alpha candidate for that but I feel Sagan has a chance too. He's had a real breakout year and one of his earlier victories in the Tour of California was a solo effort into a headwind. This tells me the boy can find a way to win a race and I doubt he's here just to make up the numbers. I'd expect him to be Liquigas' designated policemen who will look to follow moves whilst Bennati will be the protected sprinter.