Flat Racing Tuesday 5th Oct

[chris34]

3.20 Southwell Fairly weak but competitive handicap if look a bit deeper theres a few that are potentially unexposed and improvers on the surface at such a low level. Noah Jameel has been in good form recently and is up another 4lb for a hard fought victory last time out, has run well here but is vunerable to an improver or two in the field off revised mark and the improver I like the look of is Pound Lane who was sent off big prices in maidens and similarly on handicap debut when 9 lengths adrfit of improver Budva on surface in 4th place, gets to run off the same mark today and could be open to some improvement returned to this surface for second handicap start! 0.25pt e/w Pound Lane 4.20 Southwell Mister Frosty could cause a lively upset in this handicap, he ran his best race to date last time out admitly in a seller when finish second to a heavily backed inform runner who has won again since in handicaps, that was on unfavourable terms and soundly beat the rest of the field by some 14lengths on again unfavourable terms. He goes well round here and on a surfaces that favours front runners he looks handicapped to win a race after that effort in a seller, handicap also thought so raising him 4lb Kirsty Milshake gets the leg up again after such a good ride last time out. 0.5pt e/w Mister Frosty 3.40 Leicester Harlestone Times looks hard to beat in this line up on what is going to be very testing conditions, he has shaped as an out and out stayer over this sort of trip and was ultimately very impressive last time out on faster ground. Won the time prior to that over shorter trip but on soft ground and a 6lb penalty is well within his reach I feel and the yard continue in good form! 1pt win Harlestone Times 2/1 Hills

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 5th Oct 17:20 Southwell Trailblazing makes the switch to the All Weather for the first time today and I believe Johnston is doing this to see if this sparks any improvement out of the horse who has only had just the 9 runs to date. Won a decent class 3 maiden race at Ascot in July 2009 and the form of that race has worked out quite well. The 2nd place Taajub is now rated 108, has only won a maiden race since but went on to place three times that year as a 2 year old including a group 2 race at York and a group 3 race at Ascot. Is unraced as a 3 year old though. The 4th place Frozen Power is now rated 109 and has won 5 times since his debut run that day, the wins include a listed race in France and Group 2 race in Germany. Fireback who was 6th in that race has won two decent big field handicaps this season off marks of 78 and 84 and is now rated 89 on turf. Even the 7th placed hose Pintura has won three handicaps in 2010 off marks of 68, 74 and 80 (two class 5 handicaps and one class 3). So as you can see the form of that maiden has worked out very well but Trailblazing himself has not been up to much at all since that win, he was 3rd at Epsom in a 6 runner race in the race that followed the win, finishing 1 length off the winner but since then his form has been beyond poor with his closest finish coming 13 lengths off the winner. He drops down a further 5lbs in the handicap today and is now only rated 70 so the handicapper really is giving him a chance if he can spark a revival in form today. Johnston has done this time and time again so it wouldn't be a shock to see this one spring in at a big price. Has only tackled 7 furlongs three times from 9 runs but pedigree suggests the trip is ideal and if he takes to the Southwell surface today then there is no reason as to why he can't land this race. Blinkered for the first time today which can hopefully help lead to a turn in form. Joe Fanning is on board today for the 3rd time and he was in the saddle for this horses only win to date. 0.5pts E/W Trailblazing @ 20/1 (Stan James - BOG)